120 research outputs found
Quantum Monte Carlo simulation for the conductance of one-dimensional quantum spin systems
Recently, the stochastic series expansion (SSE) has been proposed as a
powerful MC-method, which allows simulations at low for quantum-spin
systems. We show that the SSE allows to compute the magnetic conductance for
various one-dimensional spin systems without further approximations. We
consider various modifications of the anisotropic Heisenberg chain. We recover
the Kane-Fisher scaling for one impurity in a Luttinger-liquid and study the
influence of non-interacting leads for the conductance of an interacting
system.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figure
Mesoscopic effects in tunneling between parallel quantum wires
We consider a phase-coherent system of two parallel quantum wires that are
coupled via a tunneling barrier of finite length. The usual perturbative
treatment of tunneling fails in this case, even in the diffusive limit, once
the length L of the coupling region exceeds a characteristic length scale L_t
set by tunneling. Exact solution of the scattering problem posed by the
extended tunneling barrier allows us to compute tunneling conductances as a
function of applied voltage and magnetic field. We take into account charging
effects in the quantum wires due to applied voltages and find that these are
important for 1D-to-1D tunneling transport.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, improved Figs., added Refs. and appendix, to
appear in Phys. Rev.
Customized clinical practice guidelines for management of adult cataract in Iran
Purpose: To customize clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) for cataract management in the Iranian population. Methods: First, four CPGs (American Academy of Ophthalmology 2006 and 2011, Royal College of Ophthalmologists 2010, and Canadian Ophthalmological Society 2008) were selected from a number of available CPGs in the literature for cataract management. All recommendations of these guidelines, together with their references, were studied. Each recommendation was summarized in 4 tables. The first table showed the recommendation itself in clinical question components format along with its level of evidence. The second table contained structured abstracts of supporting articles related to the clinical question with their levels of evidence. The third table included the customized recommendation of the internal group respecting its clinical advantage, cost, and complications. In the fourth table, the internal group their recommendations from 1 to 9 based on the customizing capability of the recommendation (applicability, acceptability, external validity). Finally, customized recommendations were sent one month prior to a consensus session to faculty members of all universities across the country asking for their comments on recommendations. Results: The agreed recommendations were accepted as conclusive while those with no agreement were discussed at the consensus session. Finally, all customized recommendations were codified as 80 recommendations along with their sources and levels of evidence for the Iranian population. Conclusion: Customization of CPGs for management of adult cataract for the Iranian population seems to be useful for standardization of referral, diagnosis and treatment of patients. © 2015 Journal of Ophthalmic and Vision Research | Published by Wolters Kluwer - Medknow
Intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents for ocular vascular diseases: Clinical practice guideline
Purpose: To provide the clinical recommendations for the administration of intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) drugs especially bavacizumab for ocular vascular diseases including diabetic macular edema, neovascular age-related macular degeneration, myopic choroidal neovascularization, retinal vein occlusion and central serous chorioretinopathy. Methods: Twenty clinical questions were developed by the guideline technical committee. Relevant websites and databases were searched to find out the pertinent clinical practice guidelines to answer the questions. The technical committee provided possible answers (scenarios) according to the available evidences for each question. All scenarios along with their levels of evidence and the supported articles were sent to the experts for external review. If the experts did not agree on any of the scenarios for one particular clinical question, the technical committee reviewed all scenarios and their pertinent evidences and made the necessary decision. After that, the experts were asked to score them again. All confirmed scenarios were gathered as the final recommendations. Results: All the experts agreed on at least one of the scenarios. The technical committee extracted the agreed scenario for each clinical question as the final recommendation. Finally, 56 recommendations were developed for the procedure of intravitreal anti-VEGF injection and their applications in the management of ocular vascular diseases. Conclusion: The implementation of this guideline can standardize the management of the common ocular vascular diseases by intravitreal injection of anti-VEGF agents. It can lead to better policy-making and evidence-based clinical decision by ophthalmologists and optimal evidence based eye care for patients. © 2018 Journal of Ophthalmic and Vision Research
Intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents for ocular vascular diseases: Clinical practice guideline
Purpose: To provide the clinical recommendations for the administration of intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) drugs especially bavacizumab for ocular vascular diseases including diabetic macular edema, neovascular age-related macular degeneration, myopic choroidal neovascularization, retinal vein occlusion and central serous chorioretinopathy. Methods: Twenty clinical questions were developed by the guideline technical committee. Relevant websites and databases were searched to find out the pertinent clinical practice guidelines to answer the questions. The technical committee provided possible answers (scenarios) according to the available evidences for each question. All scenarios along with their levels of evidence and the supported articles were sent to the experts for external review. If the experts did not agree on any of the scenarios for one particular clinical question, the technical committee reviewed all scenarios and their pertinent evidences and made the necessary decision. After that, the experts were asked to score them again. All confirmed scenarios were gathered as the final recommendations. Results: All the experts agreed on at least one of the scenarios. The technical committee extracted the agreed scenario for each clinical question as the final recommendation. Finally, 56 recommendations were developed for the procedure of intravitreal anti-VEGF injection and their applications in the management of ocular vascular diseases. Conclusion: The implementation of this guideline can standardize the management of the common ocular vascular diseases by intravitreal injection of anti-VEGF agents. It can lead to better policy-making and evidence-based clinical decision by ophthalmologists and optimal evidence based eye care for patients. © 2018 Journal of Ophthalmic and Vision Research
Fungal Planet description sheets: 1284–1382
Novel species of fungi described in this study include those from various countries as follows: Antartica, Cladosporium austrolitorale from coastal sea sand. Australia, Austroboletus yourkae on soil, Crepidotus innuopurpureus on dead wood, Curvularia stenotaphri from roots and leaves of Stenotaphrum secundatum and Thecaphora stajsicii from capsules of Oxalis radicosa. Belgium, Paraxerochrysium coryli (incl. Paraxerochrysium gen. nov.) from Corylus avellana. Brazil, Calvatia nordestina on soil, Didymella tabebuiicola from leaf spots on Tabebuia aurea, Fusarium subflagellisporum from hypertrophied floral and vegetative branches of Mangifera indica and Microdochium maculosum from living leaves of Digitaria insularis. Canada, Cuphophyllus bondii fromagrassland. Croatia, Mollisia inferiseptata from a rotten Laurus nobilis trunk. Cyprus, Amanita exilis oncalcareoussoil. Czech Republic, Cytospora hippophaicola from wood of symptomatic Vaccinium corymbosum. Denmark, Lasiosphaeria deviata on pieces of wood and herbaceousdebris. Dominican Republic, Calocybella goethei among grass on a lawn. France (Corsica) , Inocybe corsica onwetground. France (French Guiana) , Trechispora patawaensis on decayed branch of unknown angiosperm tree and Trechispora subregularis on decayed log of unknown angiosperm tree. Germany, Paramicrothecium sambuci (incl. Paramicrothecium gen. nov.)ondeadstemsof Sambucus nigra. India, Aureobasidium microtermitis from the gut of a Microtermes sp. termite, Laccaria diospyricola on soil and Phylloporia tamilnadensis on branches of Catunaregam spinosa. Iran, Pythium serotinoosporum from soil under Prunus dulcis. Italy, Pluteus brunneovenosus on twigs of broad leaved trees on the ground. Japan, Heterophoma rehmanniae on leaves of Rehmannia glutinosa f. hueichingensis. Kazakhstan, Murispora kazachstanica from healthy roots of Triticum aestivum. Namibia, Caespitomonium euphorbiae (incl. Caespitomonium gen. nov.)from stems of an Euphorbia sp. Netherlands, Alfaria junci, Myrmecridium junci, Myrmecridium juncicola, Myrmecridium juncigenum, Ophioceras junci, Paradinemasporium junci (incl. Paradinemasporium gen. nov.), Phialoseptomonium junci, Sporidesmiella juncicola, Xenopyricularia junci and Zaanenomyces quadripartis (incl. Zaanenomyces gen. nov.), fromdeadculmsof Juncus effusus, Cylindromonium everniae and Rhodoveronaea everniae from Evernia prunastri, Cyphellophora sambuci and Myrmecridium sambuci from Sambucus nigra, Kiflimonium junci, Saro cladium junci, Zaanenomyces moderatricis academiae and Zaanenomyces versatilis from dead culms of Juncus inflexus, Microcera physciae from Physcia tenella, Myrmecridium dactylidis from dead culms of Dactylis glomerata, Neochalara spiraeae and Sporidesmium spiraeae from leaves of Spiraea japonica, Neofabraea salicina from Salix sp., Paradissoconium narthecii (incl. Paradissoconium gen. nov.)from dead leaves of Narthecium ossifragum, Polyscytalum vaccinii from Vaccinium myrtillus, Pseudosoloacrosporiella cryptomeriae (incl. Pseudosoloacrosporiella gen. nov.)fromleavesof Cryptomeria japonica, Ramularia pararhabdospora from Plantago lanceolata, Sporidesmiella pini from needles of Pinus sylvestris and Xenoacrodontium juglandis (incl. Xenoacrodontium gen. nov. and Xenoacrodontiaceae fam. nov.)from Juglans regia. New Zealand, Cryptometrion metrosideri from twigs of Metrosideros sp., Coccomyces pycnophyllocladi from dead leaves of Phyllocladus alpinus, Hypoderma aliforme from fallen leaves Fuscopora solandri and Hypoderma subiculatum from dead leaves Phormium tenax. Norway, Neodevriesia kalakoutskii from permafrost and Variabilispora viridis from driftwood of Picea abies. Portugal, Entomortierella hereditatis from abio film covering adeteriorated limestone wall. Russia, Colpoma junipericola from needles of Juniperus sabina, Entoloma cinnamomeum on soil in grasslands, Entoloma verae on soil in grasslands, Hyphodermella pallidostraminea on a dry dead branch of Actinidia sp., Lepiota sayanensis onlitterinamixedforest, Papiliotrema horticola from Malus communis , Paramacroventuria ribis (incl. Paramacroventuria gen. nov.)fromleaves of Ribes aureum and Paramyrothecium lathyri from leaves of Lathyrus tuberosus. South Africa, Harzia combreti from leaf litter of Combretum collinum ssp. sulvense, Penicillium xyleborini from Xyleborinus saxesenii , Phaeoisaria dalbergiae from bark of Dalbergia armata, Protocreopsis euphorbiae from leaf litter of Euphorbia ingens and Roigiella syzygii from twigs of Syzygium chordatum. Spain, Genea zamorana on sandy soil, Gymnopus nigrescens on Scleropodium touretii, Hesperomyces parexochomi on Parexochomus quadriplagiatus, Paraphoma variabilis from dung, Phaeococcomyces kinklidomatophilus from a blackened metal railing of an industrial warehouse and Tuber suaveolens in soil under Quercus faginea. Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Inocybe nivea associated with Salix polaris. Thailand, Biscogniauxia whalleyi oncorticatedwood. UK, Parasitella quercicola from Quercus robur. USA , Aspergillus arizonicus from indoor air in a hospital, Caeliomyces tampanus (incl. Caeliomyces gen. nov.)fromoffice dust, Cippumomyces mortalis (incl. Cippumomyces gen. nov.)fromatombstone, Cylindrium desperesense from air in a store, Tetracoccosporium pseudoaerium from air sample in house, Toxicocladosporium glendoranum from air in a brick room, Toxicocladosporium losalamitosense from air in a classroom, Valsonectria portsmouthensis from airinmen'slockerroomand Varicosporellopsis americana from sludge in a water reservoir. Vietnam, Entoloma kovalenkoi on rotten wood, Fusarium chuoi inside seed of Musa itinerans , Micropsalliota albofelina on soil in tropical evergreen mixed forest sand Phytophthora docyniae from soil and roots of Docynia indica. Morphological and culture characteristics are supported by DNA barcodes
On the mechanisms governing gas penetration into a tokamak plasma during a massive gas injection
A new 1D radial fluid code, IMAGINE, is used to simulate the penetration of gas into a tokamak plasma during a massive gas injection (MGI). The main result is that the gas is in general strongly braked as it reaches the plasma, due to mechanisms related to charge exchange and (to a smaller extent) recombination. As a result, only a fraction of the gas penetrates into the plasma. Also, a shock wave is created in the gas which propagates away from the plasma, braking and compressing the incoming gas. Simulation results are quantitatively consistent, at least in terms of orders of magnitude, with experimental data for a D 2 MGI into a JET Ohmic plasma. Simulations of MGI into the background plasma surrounding a runaway electron beam show that if the background electron density is too high, the gas may not penetrate, suggesting a possible explanation for the recent results of Reux et al in JET (2015 Nucl. Fusion 55 093013)
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
- …