Energy transitions and uncertainty: creating low carbon investment opportunities in the UK electricity sector

This paper examines how actors in the UK electricity sector are attempting to deliver investment in low carbon generation. Low carbon technologies, because of their relative immaturity, capital intensity and low operational costs, do not readily fit with existing electricity markets and investment templates which were designed for fossil fuel based energy. We analyse key electricity market and infrastructure policies in the UK and highlight how these are aimed at making low carbon technologies ‘investable’ by reducing uncertainty, managing investment risks and repositioning actors within the electricity socio-technical ‘regime’. We argue that our study can inform contemporary debates on the politics and governance of sustainability transitions by empirically investigating the agency of incumbent regime actors in the face of uncertainty and by offering critical insights on the role of markets and finance in shaping socio-technical change

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) : Finding the win–wins for energy, negative emissions and ecosystem services—size matters

Funding information Natural Environment Research Council, Grant/Award Number: NE/M019764/1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported by the NERC-funded UK Energy Research Centre, by the NERC project Addressing the Valuation of Energy and Nature Together (ADVENT, NE/M019764/1) and by The University of California, Davis with CD the recipient of a NERC PhD studentship (1790094). It also contributed to the NERC FAB-GGR project (NE/M019691/1).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

North American carbon dioxide sources and sinks: magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty

North America is both a source and sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Continental sources - such as fossil-fuel combustion in the US and deforestation in Mexico - and sinks - including most ecosystems, and particularly secondary forests - add and remove CO2 from the atmosphere, respectively. Photosynthesis converts CO2 into carbon as biomass, which is stored in vegetation, soils, and wood products. However, ecosystem sinks compensate for only similar to 35% of the continent's fossil-fuel-based CO2 emissions; North America therefore represents a net CO2 source. Estimating the magnitude of ecosystem sinks, even though the calculation is confounded by uncertainty as a result of individual inventory- and model-based alternatives, has improved through the use of a combined approach. Front Ecol Environ 2012; 10(10): 512-519, doi:10.1890/12006

DESIGNING PORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SEA LEVEL CHANGE: A SURVEY OF U.S. ENGINEERS

Seaports are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to their coastal location. With the potential threat of up to 2.5m in sea level rise by 2100, resilient port infrastructure is vital for the continued operation of ports. There are strong economic and social incentives for seaports to provide long-term resilience against climate conditions. For example, service disruptions can cost billions of dollars and impact the livelihoods of those who depend on the port. Engineers play a pivotal role in improving the resilience of ports, as they are responsible for designing port infrastructure that will be adequately prepared for future sea level change (SLC). However, incorporating SLC is a challenging task due to the uncertainty of SLC projections, the long service lives of port infrastructure, and the differing guidelines and recommendations for managing SLC. Through an online survey of 85 U.S. port and marine infrastructure engineers, this research explores the engineering community’s attitude and approach to planning for SLC for large-scale maritime infrastructure projects. Survey findings highlight the extent that projects incorporate SLC, the wide range of factors that drive the inclusion of SLC, and the numerous barriers that prevent engineers from incorporating SLC into design. This research emphasizes that traditional engineering practices may no longer be appropriate for dealing with climate change design variables and their associated uncertainties. Furthermore, results call for collaboration among engineers, port authorities, and policy makers to develop design standards and practical design methods for designing resilient port infrastructure

Response operators for Markov processes in a finite state space: radius of convergence and link to the response theory for Axiom A systems

Using straightforward linear algebra we derive response operators describing the impact of small perturbations to finite state Markov processes. The results can be used for studying empirically constructed—e.g. from observations or through coarse graining of model simulations—finite state approximation of statistical mechanical systems. Recent results concerning the convergence of the statistical properties of finite state Markov approximation of the full asymptotic dynamics on the SRB measure in the limit of finer and finer partitions of the phase space are suggestive of some degree of robustness of the obtained results in the case of Axiom A system. Our findings give closed formulas for the linear and nonlinear response theory at all orders of perturbation and provide matrix expressions that can be directly implemented in any coding language, plus providing bounds on the radius of convergence of the perturbative theory. In particular, we relate the convergence of the response theory to the rate of mixing of the unperturbed system. One can use the formulas derived for finite state Markov processes to recover previous findings obtained on the response of continuous time Axiom A dynamical systems to perturbations, by considering the generator of time evolution for the measure and for the observables. A very basic, low-tech, and computationally cheap analysis of the response of the Lorenz ’63 model to perturbations provides rather encouraging results regarding the possibility of using the approximate representation given by finite state Markov processes to compute the system’s response

Framework for High‐End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications

An approach to analyze high‐end sea level rise is presented to provide a conceptual framework for high‐end estimates as a function of time scale, thereby linking robust sea level science with stakeholder needs. Instead of developing and agreeing on a set of high‐end sea level rise numbers or using an expert consultation, our effort is focused on the essential task of providing a generic conceptual framework for such discussions and demonstrating its feasibility to address this problem. In contrast, information about high‐end sea level rise projections was derived previously either from a likely range emerging from the highest view of emissions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment (currently the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) or from independent ad hoc studies and expert solicitations. Ideally, users need high‐end sea level information representing the upper tail of a single joint sea level frequency distribution, which considers all plausible yet unknown emission scenarios as well as involved physical mechanisms and natural variability of sea level, but this is not possible. In the absence of such information we propose a framework that would infer the required information from explicit conditional statements (lines of evidence) in combination with upper (plausible) physical bounds. This approach acknowledges the growing uncertainty in respective estimates with increasing time scale. It also allows consideration of the various levels of risk aversion of the diverse stakeholders who make coastal policy and adaptation decisions, while maintaining scientific rigor

Assessing the effectiveness of protected areas for conserving range‐restricted rain forest butterflies in Sabah, Borneo

Rain forests on Borneo support exceptional concentrations of endemic insect biodiversity, but many of these forest‐dependent species are threatened by land‐use change. Totally protected areas (TPAs) of forest are key for conserving biodiversity, and we examined the effectiveness of the current TPA network for conserving range‐restricted butterflies in Sabah (Malaysian Borneo). We found that mean diurnal temperature range and precipitation of the wettest quarter of the year were the most important predictors of butterfly distributions (N = 77 range‐restricted species), and that species richness increased with elevation and aboveground forest carbon. On average across all species, TPAs were effective at conserving ~43% of species’ ranges, but encompassed only ~40% of areas with high species richness (i.e., containing at least 50% of our study species). The TPA network also included only 33%–40% of areas identified as high priority for conserving range‐restricted species, as determined by a systematic conservation prioritization analysis. Hence, the current TPA network is reasonably effective at conserving range‐restricted butterflies, although considerable areas of high species richness (6,565 km2) and high conservation priority (11,152–12,531 km2) are not currently protected. Sabah's remaining forests, and the range‐restricted species they support, are under continued threat from agricultural expansion and urban development, and our study highlights important areas of rain forest that require enhanced protection. Abstract in Malay is available with online material

Human factors in the design of sustainable built environments

Scientific research provides convincing evidence that climate change is having significant impacts on many aspects of life. In the built-environment domain, regulatory requirements are pushing the challenges of environmental, economic, and social sustainability at the core of the professional agenda, although the aims of carbon reduction and energy conservation are frequently given a priority over occupants' comfort, well-being, and satisfaction. While most practitioners declare to embrace sustainability as a driver of their professional approach, a general lack of integrated creative and technical skills hinders the design of buildings centred on articulate and comprehensive sustainability goals, encompassing, other than energy criteria, also human-centred and ethical values founded on competent and informed consideration of the requirements of the site, the programme, and the occupants. Built environments are designed by humans to host a range of human activities. In response, this article aims to endorse a sustainable approach to design founded on the knowledge arising from scholarly and evidence-based research, exploring principles and criteria for the creation and operation of human habitats that can respond to energy and legislative demands, mitigate their environmental impacts, and adapt to new climate scenarios, while elevating the quality of experience and delight to those occupying them