Une méthodologie de modélisation numérique de terrain pour la simulation hydrodynamique bidimensionnelle

L'article pose la problématique de la construction du Modèle Numérique de Terrain (MNT) dans le contexte d'études hydrauliques à deux dimensions, ici reliées aux inondations. La difficulté est liée à l'hétérogénéité des ensembles de données qui diffèrent en précision, en couverture spatiale, en répartition et en densité, ainsi qu'en géoréférentiation, notamment. Dans le cadre d'un exercice de modélisation hydrodynamique, toute la région à l'étude doit être documentée et l'information portée sur un support homogène. L'article propose une stratégie efficace supportée par un outil informatique, le MODELEUR, qui permet de fusionner rapidement les divers ensembles disponibles pour chaque variable qu'elle soit scalaire comme la topographie ou vectorielle comme le vent, d'en préserver l'intégrité et d'y donner accès efficacement à toutes les étapes du processus d'analyse et de modélisation. Ainsi, quelle que soit l'utilisation environnementale du modèle numérique de terrain (planification d'aménagement, conservation d'habitats, inondations, sédimentologie), la méthode permet de travailler avec la projection des données sur un support homogène de type maillage d'éléments finis et de conserver intégralement l'original comme référence. Cette méthode est basée sur une partition du domaine d'analyse par type d'information : topographie, substrat, rugosité de surface, etc.. Une partition est composée de sous-domaines et chacun associe un jeu de données à une portion du domaine d'analyse par un procédé déclaratoire. Ce modèle conceptuel forme à notre sens le MNT proprement dit. Le processus de transfert des données des partitions à un maillage d'analyse est considéré comme un résultat du MNT et non le MNT lui-même. Il est réalisé à l'aide d'une technique d'interpolation comme la méthode des éléments finis. Suite aux crues du Saguenay en 1996, la méthode a pu être testée et validée pour en démontrer l'efficacité. Cet exemple nous sert d'illustration.This article exposes the problem of constructing a Numerical Terrain Model (NTM) in the particular context of two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic studies, herein related to floods. The main difficulty is related to the heterogeneity of the data sets that differ in precision, in spatial coverage, distribution and density, and in georeference, among others. Within the framework of hydrodynamic modelling, the entire region under study must be documented and the information carried on a homogeneous grid. One proposes here an efficient strategy entirely supported by a software tool called MODELEUR, which allows to import, gather and merge together very heterogeneous data sets, whatever type they are, scalar like topography or vectorial like wind, to preserve their integrity, and provide access to them in their original form at every step of the modelling exercise. Thus, whatever the environmental purpose of the modelling exercise (enhancement works, sedimentology, conservation of habitats, flood risks analysis), the method allows to work with the projection of the data sets on a homogeneous finite element grid and to conserves integrally the original sets as the ultimate reference. This method is based on a partition of the domain under study for each data type: topography, substrates, surface roughness, etc. Each partition is composed of sub-domains and each of them associates a data set to a portion of the domain in a declarative way. This conceptual model represents formally the NTM. The process of data transfer from the partitions to the final grid is considered as a result of the NTM and not the NTM itself. It is performed by interpolation with a technique like the finite element method. Following the huge Saguenay flood in 1996, the efficiency of this method has been tested and validated successfully and this example serves here as an illustration.The accurate characteristics description of both river main channel and flood plain is essential to any hydrodynamic simulation, especially if extreme discharges are considered and if the two-dimensional approach is used.The ground altitude and the different flow resistance factors are basic information that the modeler should pass on to the simulator. For too long, this task remained "the poor relative" of the modeling process because it does not a priori seem to raise any particular difficulty. In practice however, it represents a very significant workload for the mobilisation of the models, besides hiding many pitfalls susceptible to compromise the quality of the hydraulic results. As well as the velocity and water level fields are results of the hydrodynamic model, the variables describing the terrain and transferred on the simulation mesh constitute the results of the Numerical Terrain Model (NTM). Because this is strictly speaking a modeling exercise, a validation of the results that assess the quality of the model is necessary.In this paper, we propose a methodology to integrate the heterogeneous data sets for the construction of the NTM with the aim of simulating 2D hydrodynamics of natural streams with the finite element method. This methodology is completely supported by a software, MODELEUR, developed at INRS-Eau (Secretan and Leclerc, 1998; Secretan et al., 2000). This tool, which can be assimilated to a Geographical Information System (GIS) dedicated to the applications of 2D flow simulations, allows to carry out all the steps of integrating the raw data sets for the conception of a complete NTM. Furthermore, it facilitates the application and the piloting of hydrodynamic simulations with the simulator HYDROSIM (Heniche et al., 1999).Scenarios for flow analysis require frequent and important changes in the mesh carrying the data. A return to the basis data sets is then required, which obliges to preserve them in their entirety, to have easily access to them and to transfer them efficiently on the mesh. That is why the NTM should rather put emphasis on basic data rather than on their transformed and inevitably degraded aspect after their transfer to a mesh.The data integrity should be preserved as far as possible in the sense that it is imperative to keep distinct and to give access separately to different data sets. Two measuring campaigns will not be mixed; for example, the topography resulting from digitised maps will be maintained separated from that resulting from echo-sounding campaigns. This approach allows at any time to return to the measures, to control them, to validate them, to correct them and possibly, to substitute a data set a by another one.The homogeneity of the data support with respect to the location of the data points is essential to allow the algebraic interaction between the different information layers. The operational objective which bear up ultimately the creation of the NTM in the present context is to be able to transfer efficiently the spatial basic data (measurements, geometry of civil works, etc.) each carried by diverse discretisations towards a single carrying structure.With these objectives of integrity, accessibility, efficiency and homogeneity, the proposed method consists of the following steps:1. Import of the data sets into the database, which possibly implies to digitise maps and/or to reformat the raw files to a compatible file format; 2. Construction and assembly of the NTM properly which consists, for each variable (topography, roughness, etc.), to create a partition of the domain under study, that is to subdivide it into juxtaposed sub-domains and to associate to each sub-domain the data set which describes the variable on it. More exactly, this declaratory procedure uses irregular polygons allowing to specify in the corresponding sub-domains the data source to be used in the construction of the NTM. As it is also possible to transform regions of the domain with algebraic functions to represent for example civil works in river (dikes, levees, etc.), the NTM integrates all the validated data sets and the instructions to transform them locally. From this stage, the NTM exists as entity-model and it has a conceptual character;3. Construction of a finite element mesh;4. Transfer by interpolation and assembly of the data of the different components of the NTM on the finite element mesh according to the instructions contained in the various partitions. The result is an instance of the NTM and its quality depends on the density of the mesh and the variability of the data. So, it requires a validation with respect to the original data;5. Realisation of the analysis tasks and/or hydrodynamic simulations. If the mesh should be modified for a project variant or for an analysis scenario, only tasks 3 and 4 are to be redone and task 4 is completely automated in the MODELEUR.The heterogeneity of the data sources, which constitutes one of the main difficulties of the exercise, can be classified in three groups: according to the measuring technique used; according to the format or the representation model used; according to the geographic datum and projection system.For the topography, the measuring techniques include conventional or radar satellite, airborne techniques, photogrammetry or laser scanning, ground techniques, total station or GPS station, as well as embarked techniques as the echo-sounder. These data come in the form of paper maps that have to be digitised, in the form of regular or random data points, isolines of altitude, or even as transects. They can be expressed in different datums and projections and sometime are not even georeferenced and must be first positioned.As for the bed roughness that determines the resistance to the flow, also here the data sets differ one from the other in many aspects. Data can here also have been picked as regular or random points, as homogeneous zones or as transects. Data can represent the average grain size of the present materials, the dimension of the passing fraction (D85 or D50 or median), the represented % of the surface corresponding to every fraction of the grain assemblage, etc... In absence of this basic data, the NTM can only represent the value of the friction parameter, typically n of Manning, which should be obtained by calibration for the hydrodynamic model. For the vegetation present in the flood plain or for aquatic plants, source data can be as variable as for the bed roughness. Except for the cases where data exists, the model of vegetation often consists of the roughness parameter obtained during the calibration exercise. The method was successfully applied in numerous contexts as demonstrated by the application realised on the Chicoutimi River after the catastrophic flood in the Saguenay region in 1996. The huge heterogeneity of the available data in that case required the application of such a method as proposed. So, elevation data obtained by photogrammetry, by total station or by echo-sounder on transects could be coordinated and investigated simultaneously for the purposes of hydrodynamic simulation or of sedimentary balance in zones strongly affected by the flood

Cartographie du risque unitaire d'endommagement (CRUE) par inondations pour les résidences unifamiliales du Québec

Actuellement, en considérant simultanément les éléments constitutifs du risque, soit l'aléa et la vulnérabilité, aucune des méthodes existantes dites de cartographie des risques d'inondation ne permet d'établir de façon précise et quantifiable en tous points du territoire les risques d'inondation. La méthode de cartographie présentée permet de combler ce besoin en répondant aux critères suivants : facilité d'utilisation, de consultation et d'application, résultats distribués spatialement, simplicité de mise à jour, applicabilité à divers types de résidences.La méthode présentée utilise une formulation unitaire du risque basée sur les taux d'endommagement distribués et reliés à diverses périodes de retour de crues à l'eau libre. Ceux-ci sont d'abord calculés à partir des hauteurs de submersion qu'on déduit de la topographie, des niveaux d'eau pour des périodes de retour représentatives et du mode d'implantation des résidences (présence de sous-sol, hauteur moyenne du rez-de-chaussée). Ensuite, le risque unitaire est obtenu par intégration du produit du taux d'endommagement croissant par son incrément de probabilité au dépassement. Le résultat est une carte représentant le risque en % de dommage direct moyen annuel. Une étude pilote sur un tronçon de la rivière Montmorency (Québec, Canada) a montré que les cartes sont expressives, flexibles et peuvent recevoir tous les traitements additionnels permis par un SIG tel que le logiciel MODELEUR/HYDROSIM développé à l'INRS-ETE, l'outil utilisé pour cette recherche. Enfin, l'interprétation sur la Montmorency des cartes d'inondation en vigueur actuellement au Canada (les limites de crue de 20/100 ans) soulève des interrogations sur le niveau de risque actuellement accepté dans la réglementation, surtout quand on le compare aux taux de taxation municipale.Public managers of flood risks need simple and precise tools to deal with this problem and to minimize its consequences, especially for land planning and management. Several methods exist that produce flood risk maps and help to restrict building residences in flood plains. For example, the current method in Canada is based on the delineation in flood plains of two regions corresponding to floods of 20- and 100-year return periods (CONVENTION CANADA/QUÉBEC, 1994), mostly applied to ice-free flooding conditions. The method applied by the Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA (2004) is also based on the statistical structure of the floods in different contexts, with a goal mostly oriented towards the determination of insurance rates. In France, the INONDABILITÉ method (GILARD and GENDREAU, 1998) seeks to match the present probability of flooding to a reduced one that the stakeholders would be willing to accept.However, considering that the commonly accepted definition of risk includes both the probability of flooding and its consequences (costs of damages), very few, if any of the present methods can strictly be considered as risk-mapping methods. The method presented hereafter addresses this gap by representing the mean annual rate of direct damage (unit value) for different residential building modes, taking into account the flood probability structure and the spatial distribution of the submersion height, which takes into account the topography of the flood plain and the water stage distribution, the residential settlement mode (basement or not) and the first floor elevation of the building. The method seeks to meet important criteria related to efficient land planning and management, including: ease of utilisation, consultation and application for managers; spatially distributed results usable in current geographical information systems (GIS maps); availability anywhere in the area under study; ease of updating; and adaptability for a wide range of residence types.The proposed method is based on a unit treatment of the risk variable that corresponds to a rate of damage, instead of an absolute value expressed in monetary units. Direct damages to the building are considered, excluding damages to furniture and other personal belongs. Damage rates are first computed as a function of the main explanatory variable represented by the field of submersion depths. This variable, which is obtained from the 2D subtraction of the terrain topography from the water stage for each reference flood event, is defined by its probability of occurrence. The mean annual rate of damage (unit risk) is obtained by integrating the field of damage rate with respect to the annual probability structure of the available flood events. The result is a series of maps corresponding to representative modes of residential settlement.The damage rate was computed with a set of empirical functional relationships developed for the Saguenay region (Québec, Canada) after the flood of 1996. These curves were presented in LECLERC et al. (2003); four different curves form the set that represents residences with or without a basement, with a value below or above $CAD 50,000, which is roughly correlated with the type of occupation (i.e., secondary or main residence). While it cannot be assumed that theses curves are generic with respect to the general situation in Canada, or more specifically, in the province of Québec, the method itself can still be applied by making use of alternate sets of submersion rates of damage curves developed for other specific scenarios. Moreover, as four different functional relationships were used to represent the different residential settlement modes, four different maps have to be drawn to represent the vulnerability of the residential sector depending of the type of settlement. Consequently, as the maps are designed to represent a homogeneous mode of settlement, they represent potential future development in a given region better than the current situation. They can also be used to evaluate public policies regarding urban development and building restrictions in the flood plains.A pilot study was conducted on a reach of the Montmorency River (Québec, Canada; BLIN, 2002). It was possible to verify the compliance of the method to the proposed utilisation criteria. The method proved to be simple to use, adaptive and compatible with GIS modeling environments, such as MODELEUR (SECRETAN at al, 1999), a 2D finite elements modeling system designed for a fluvial environment. Water stages were computed with a 2D hydrodynamic simulator (HYDROSIM; HENICHE et al., 1999a) to deal with the river reach complexity (a breaded reach with back waters). Due to the availability of 2D results, a 2D graphic representation of the information layers can therefore be configured, taking into account the specific needs of the interveners. In contexts where one dimensional water stage profiles are computed (e.g., HEC-RAS by USACE, 1990; DAMBRK by FREAD, 1984), an extended 2D representation of these data needs to be developed in the lateral flood plains in order to achieve a 2D distributed submersion field.Among the interesting results, it was possible to compare the risk level for given modes of settlements (defined by the presence/absence of a basement and the elevation of the first floor with respect to the land topography) with current practices, based only on the delineation of the limits of the flood zones corresponding to 20/100 year return periods. We conclude that, at least in the particular case under study, the distributed annual rate of damage seems relatively large with respect to other financial indicators for residences such as urban taxation rates

Detection of pathological myopia by PAMELA with texture-based features through an SVM approach

10.1260/2040-2295.1.1.1Journal of Healthcare Engineering111-1

Body fatness and cancer - viewpoint of the IARC working group

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Meeting Report: Summary of IARC Monographs on Formaldehyde, 2-Butoxyethanol, and 1-tert-Butoxy-2-Propanol

An international, interdisciplinary working group of expert scientists met in June 2004 to develop IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of the Carcinogenic Risk of Chemicals to Humans (IARC Monographs) on formaldehyde, 2-butoxyethanol, and 1-tert-butoxy-2-propanol. Each IARC Monograph includes a critical review of the pertinent scientific literature and an evaluation of an agent’s potential to cause cancer in humans. After a thorough discussion of the epidemiologic, experimental, and other relevant data, the working group concluded that formaldehyde is carcinogenic to humans, based on sufficient evidence in humans and in experimental animals. In the epidemiologic studies, there was sufficient evidence that formaldehyde causes nasopharyngeal cancer, “strong but not sufficient” evidence of leukemia, and limited evidence of sinonasal cancer. The working group also concluded that 2-butoxyethanol and 1-tert-butoxy-2-propanol are not classifiable as to their carcinogenicity to humans, each having limited evidence in experimental animals and inadequate evidence in humans. These three evaluations and the supporting data will be-published as Volume 88 of the IARC Monographs

Overeating, caloric restriction and breast cancer risk by pathologic subtype: the EPIGEICAM study

This study analyzes the association of excessive energy intake and caloric restriction with breast cancer (BC) risk taking into account the individual energy needs of Spanish women. We conducted a multicenter matched case-control study where 973 pairs completed lifestyle and food frequency questionnaires. Expected caloric intake was predicted from a linear regression model in controls, including calories consumed as dependent variable, basal metabolic rate as an offset and physical activity as explanatory. Overeating and caloric restriction were defined taking into account the 99% confidence interval of the predicted value. The association with BC risk, overall and by pathologic subtype, was evaluated using conditional and multinomial logistic regression models. While premenopausal women that consumed few calories (>20% below predicted) had lower BC risk (OR = 0.36; 95% CI = 0.21–0.63), postmenopausal women with an excessive intake (≥40% above predicted) showed an increased risk (OR = 2.81; 95% CI = 1.65–4.79). For every 20% increase in relative (observed/predicted) caloric intake the risk of hormone receptor positive (p-trend < 0.001) and HER2+ (p-trend = 0.015) tumours increased 13%, being this figure 7% for triple negative tumours. While high energy intake increases BC risk, caloric restriction could be protective. Moderate caloric restriction, in combination with regular physical activity, could be a good strategy for BC prevention

Body fatness and cancer - viewpoint of the IARC working group

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Biomorpher: interactive evolution for parametric design

Combining graph-based parametric design with metaheuristic solvers has to date focussed solely on performance based criteria and solving clearly defined objectives. In this paper, we outline a new method for combining a parametric modelling environment with an interactive Cluster-Orientated Genetic Algorithm (COGA). In addition to performance criteria, evolutionary design exploration can be guided through choice alone, with user motivation that cannot be easily defined. As well as numeric parameters forming a genotype, the evolution of whole parametric definitions is discussed through the use of genetic programming. Visualisation techniques that enable mixing small populations for interactive evolution with large populations for performance-based optimisation are discussed, with examples from both academia and industry showing a wide range of applications

The implications of a Silurian and other thylacocephalan crustaceans for the functional morphology and systematic affinities of the group

Background: Thylacocephala is a group of enigmatic extinct arthropods. Here we provide a full description of the oldest unequivocal thylacocephalan, a new genus and species Thylacares brandonensis, which is present in the Silurian Waukesha fauna from Wisconsin, USA. We also present details of younger, Jurassic specimens, from the Solnhofen lithographic limestones, which are crucial to our interpretation of the systematic position of Thylacocephala. In the past, Thylacocephala has been interpreted as a crustacean ingroup and as closely related to various groups such as cirripeds, decapods or remipeds. Results: The Waukesha thylacocephalan, Thylacares brandonensis n. gen. n. sp., bears compound eyes and raptorial appendages that are relatively small compared to those of other representatives of the group. As in other thylacocephalans the large bivalved shield encloses much of the entire body. The shield lacks a marked optical notch. The eyes, which project just beyond the shield margin, appear to be stalked. Head appendages, which may represent antennulae, antennae and mandibles, appear to be present. The trunk is comprised of up to 22 segments. New details observed on thylacocephalans from the Jurassic Solnhofen lithographic limestones include antennulae and antennae of Mayrocaris bucculata, and endites on the raptorial appendages and an elongate last trunk appendage in Clausocaris lithographica. Preserved features of the internal morphology in C. lithographica include the muscles of the raptorial appendage and trunk. Conclusions: Our results indicate that some `typical' thylacocephalan characters are unique to the group; these autapomorphies contribute to the difficulty of determining thylacocephalan affinities. While the new features reported here are consistent with a eucrustacean affinity, most previous hypotheses for the position of Thylacocephala within Eucrustacea (as Stomatopoda, Thecostraca or Decapoda) are shown to be unlikely. A sister group relationship to Remipedia appears compatible with the observed features of Thylacocephala but more fossil evidence is required to test this assertion. The raptorial appendages of Thylacocephala most likely projected 45 degrees abaxially instead of directly forward as previously reconstructed. The overall morphology of thylacocephalans supports a predatory mode of life