Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to upscale stand level damages by bark beetles as simulated in the hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.41. Comparing EFISCEN simulations including the new bark beetle disturbance module against a 15-year damage time series for Austria showed good agreement at province level (R² between 0.496 and 0.802). A scenario analysis of climate change impacts on bark beetle-induced damages in Austria¿s Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] forests resulted in a strong increase in damages (from 1.33 Mm³ a¿1, period 1990¿2004, to 4.46 Mm³ a¿1, period 2095¿2099). Studying two adaptive management strategies (species change) revealed a considerable time-lag between the start of adaptation measures and a decrease in simulated damages by bark beetle

Hoe stabiel is de toekomstboom?

Op 18 januari 2007 raasde een storm over West-Europa die tientallen dodelijke menselijke slachtoffers maakte en enorme materiële schade aanrichtte. De storm ontwortelde een miljoen bomen. Hadden we schade kunnen voorkomen of is dit het soort natuurgeweld waartegen geen kruid gewassen is? Hoofdlijnen uit Alterra rapport over "Storm, bos, beheer en stabiliteit

Mesonic Contribution to the Compton Scattering Amplitude for Heavy Nuclei

The contribution of mesonic exchange currents to nuclear Compton scattering is investigated within the framework of a Fermi gas model of nuclear matter in the non-relativistic limit. The additional interaction between the nucleons is accounted for by including two- and three-body diagrams. As a test of this model, the enhancement constant $\kappa$ is calculated. The full correlators for the central and tensor part of the nucleon-nucleon interaction due to pion exchange are obtained and the energy dependence of the amplitude is investigated. The contribution of the $\Delta$-excitation to the mesonic part of the Compton amplitude is calculated explicitely using an effective Hamiltonian in the static limit.Comment: 21 pages, Latex, 12 figures available at http://www.physik2.gwdg.de/lokales/Forschungsberichte/Theorie/Meso

Meson-induced correlations of nucleons in nuclear Compton scattering

The non-resonant (seagull) contribution to the nuclear Compton amplitude at low energies is strongly influenced by nucleon correlations arising from meson exchange. We study this problem in a modified Fermi gas model, where nuclear correlation functions are obtained with the help of perturbation theory. The dependence of the mesonic seagull amplitude on the nuclear radius is investigated and the influence of a realistic nuclear density on this amplitude is dicussed. We found that different form factors appear for the static part (proportional to the enhancement constant $\kappa$) of the mesonic seagull amplitude and for the parts, which contain the contribution from electromagnetic polarizabilities.Comment: 15 pages, Latex, epsf.sty, 9 eps figures

Методические подходы к определению рационального состава минеральных удобрений

Various methods and approaches to determination of the rational composition of mineral fertilizers are considered. The necessity of use of the ecological component for calculation the optimal set of mineral fertlizers is being grounded. When you are citing the document, use the following link http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/1314