Incertesa i coneixement

Incertesa i coneixement són dos conceptes oposats, antagònics, però que molt sovint es veuen obligats a conviure. La seva gran rivalitat serà una constant que els acompanyarà en tot moment,cadascun amb l’objectiu d’apoderar-se de l’altre. L’estadística serà el pont entre aquest dos vells enemics

The Analysis of interval censoring and double censoring via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

L'Anàlisi de la supervivència s'utilitza en diferents camps per analitzar el temps transcorregut entre dos esdeveniments. El que distingeix l'anàlisi de la supervivència d'altres àrees de l'estadística és que les dades normalment estan censurades. La censura en un interval apareix quan l'esdeveniment final d'interès no és directament observable i només se sap que el temps de fallada està en un interval concret. Un esquema de censura més complex encara apareix quan tant el temps inicial com el temps final estan censurats en un interval. Aquesta situació s'anomena doble censura. En aquest article donem una descripció formal d'un mètode bayesà paramètric per a l'anàlisi de dades censurades en un interval i dades doblement censurades així com unes indicacions clares de la seva utilització o pràctica. La metodologia proposada s'ilustra amb dades d'una cohort de pacients hemofílics que es varen infectar amb el virus VIH a principis dels anys 1980's.Survival analysis is used in different fields to analyse the elapsed time between two events. What distinguishes survival analysis from other areas in statistics is that data are usually censored. Interval censoring arises when the occurrence of the final event of interest cannot be exactly observed and the failure time is only known to lie in an interval. A more complex censoring scheme is found when both initial and final times are interval–censored. This situation is referred as double censoring. In this paper we provide a formal description of a parametric Bayesian method for the analysis of interval–censored and doubly–censored data and clear guide lines for its practical use. The proposed methodology is illustrated with data from a cohort of haemophilia patients who were infected with HIV in the early1980’s.El análisis de la supervivencia se utiliza en diferentes campos para analizar el tiempo transcurrido entre dos sucesos. Lo que distingue el análisis de la supervivencia de otras áreas de la estadística es que los datos normalmente están censurados. La censura en un intervalo aparece cuando el suceso final de interés no es directamente observable y sólo se sabe que el tiempo de fallo está en un intervalo concreto. Un esquema de censura más complejo todavía aparece cuando tanto el tiempo inicial como el tiempo final están censurados en un intervalo. Esta situación se denomina doble censura. En este artículo damos una descripción formal de un método bayesiano paramétrico para el análisis de datos censurados en un intervalo y datos doblemente censurados, así como unas indicaciones claras de su utilización práctica. La metodología propuesta se ilustra con datos de una cohorte de pacientes hemofílicos que se infectaron con el virus VIH a principios de los años 1980

The analysis of interval-censored survival data. From a Nonparametric perspective to a nonparametric Bayesian approach

This work concerns some problems in the area of survival analysis that arise in real clinical or epidemiological studies. In particular, we approach the problem of estimating the survival function based on interval-censored data or doubly-censored data. We will start defining these concepts and presenting a brief review of different methodologies to deal with this kind of censoring patterns.Survival analysis is the term used to describe the analysis of data that correspond to the time from a well defined origin time until the occurrence of some particular event of interest. This event need not necessarily be death, but could, for example, be the response to a treatment, remission from a disease, or the occurrence of a sympto

Evaluation of inorganic zinc-rich primers using Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) in combination with atmospheric exposure

This investigation explored the use of Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) in combination with atmospheric exposure as a short term method for analyzing the performance of twenty-one commercially available zinc-rich primers. The twenty-one zinc-rich primers were: Carboline CZ-11, Ameron Devoe-Marine Catha-Coat 304, Briner V-65, Ameron D-21-9, Sherwin Williams Zinc Clad II, Carboline CZ-D7, Ameron D-4, Dupont Ganicin 347WB, Porter TQ-4374H, Inorganic Coatings IC-531, Subox Galvanox IV, Southern Coatings Chemtec 600, GLidden Glidzinc 5530, Byco SP-101, Tnemec 90E-75, Devoe Catha-Coat 302H, Glidden Glidzinc 5536, Koppers 701, Ameron D-21-5, Coronado 935-152, and Subox Galvanox V. Data were also collected on galvanized steel for comparison purposes. A library of Bode magnitude plots was generated for each coating including curves for the initial time and after each week of atmospheric exposure at the Beach Corrosion Test site near the Space Shuttle launch pad at the Kennedy Space Center for up to four weeks. Subsequent measurements were collected after 8 weeks and after one year of atmospheric exposure. Analysis of the impedance data was performed with the purpose of identifying parameters that could be used to predict the long-term performance of zinc-rich primers. It has been shown that there is a correlation between the long-term performance of zinc-rich primers and several parameters obtained from EIS measurements in combination with atmospheric exposure. The equivalent circuit R2(R2C(R3W)) provided a satisfactory fit for the EIS data. The corrosion potential and the R2 resistance are parameters indicative of the galvanic mechanism of protection. The capacitance of the coating is related to the barrier mechanism of protection

Study of metal corrosion using ac impedance techniques in the STS launch environment

AC impedance measurements were performed to investigate the corrosion resistance of 19 alloys under conditions similar to the STS launch environment. The alloys were: Zirconium 702, Hastelloy C-22, Inconel 625, Hastelloy C-276, Hastelloy C-4, Inconel 600, 7Mo + N, Ferralium 255, Inco Alloy G-3, 20Cb-3, SS 904L, Inconel 825, SS 304LN, SS 316L, SS 317L, ES 2205, SS 304L, Hastelloy B-2, and Monel 400. AC impedance data were gathered for each alloy after one hour immersion time in each of the following three electrolyte solutions: 3.55 percent NaCl, 3.55 percent NaCl-0.1N HCl, and 3.55 percent NaCl-1.0N HCl. The data were analyzed qualitatively using the Nyquist plot and quantitatively using the Bode plot. Polarization resistance, Rp, values were obtained using the Bode plot. Zirconium 702 was the most corrosion resistant alloy in the three electrolytes. The ordering of the other alloys according the their resistance to corrosion varied as the concentration of hydrochloric acid in the electrolyte increased. The corrosion resistance of Zirconium 702 and Ferralium 255 increased as the concentration of hydrochloric acid in the electrolyte increased. The corrosion resistance of the other 17 alloys decreased as the concentration of the hyrdochloric acid in the electrolyte increased

PH and Electrochemical Responsive Materials for Corrosion Smart Coating Applications

Corrosion is a costly issue for military operations and civil industries. While most corrosion initiates from localized corrosion form, such as pitting, failure directly caused by localized corrosion is the most dangerous kind, because it is difficult to anticipate and prevent, occurs very suddenly and can be catastrophic. One way of preventing these failures is with a coating that can detect and heal localized corrosion. pH and other electrochemical changes are often associated with localized corrosion, so it is expected that materials that are pH or otherwise electrochemical responsive can be used to detect and control corrosion. This paper will review various pH and electrochemical responsive materials and their potential applications in corrosion smart coatings. Current research results in this field will also be reported

Coatings and methods for corrosion detection and/or reduction

Coatings and methods are provided. An embodiment of the coating includes microcapsules that contain at least one of a corrosion inhibitor, a film-forming compound, and an indicator. The microcapsules are dispersed in a coating vehicle. A shell of each microcapsule breaks down in the presence of an alkaline condition, resulting from corrosion

A Micro-Electrochemical Study of Friction Stir Welded Aluminum 6061-T6

The corrosion behavior of friction stir welded Aluminum alloy 606 1-T6 was studied using a micro-electrochemical cell. The micro-electrochemical cell has a measurement area of about 0.25 square mm which allows for measurement of corrosion properties at a very small scale. The corrosion and breakdown potentials were measured at many points inside and outside the weld along lines perpendicular to the weld. The breakdown potential is approximately equal inside and outside the weld; however, it is lower in the narrow border between the weld and base material. The results of electrochemical measurements were correlated to micro-structural analysis. The corrosion behavior of the friction stir welded samples was compared to tungsten inert gas (TIG) welded samples of the same material

Synthesis of Elongated Microcapsules

One of the factors that influence the effectiveness of self-healing in functional materials is the amount of liquid healing agents that can be delivered to the damaged area. The use of hollow tubes or fibers and the more sophisticated micro-vascular networks has been proposed as a way to increase the amount of healing agents that can be released when damage is inflicted. Although these systems might be effective in some specific applications, they are not practical for coatings applications. One possible practical way to increase the healing efficiency is to use microcapsules with high-aspect-ratios, or elongated microcapsules. It is understood that elongated microcapsules will be more efficient because they can release more healing agent than a spherical microcapsule when a crack is initiated in the coating. Although the potential advantage of using elongated microcapsules for self healing applications is clear, it is very difficult to make elongated microcapsules from an emulsion system because spherical microcapsules are normally formed due to the interfacial tension between the dispersed phase and the continuous phase. This paper describes the two methods that have been developed by the authors to synthesize elongated microcapsules. The first method involves the use of an emulsion with intermediate stability and the second involves the application of mechanical shear conditions to the emulsion

Likelihood inferences with interval-censored data

En l’anàlisi de la supervivència el problema de les dades censurades en un interval es tracta, usualment,via l’estimació per màxima versemblança. Amb l’objectiu d’utilitzar una expressió simplificada de la funció de versemblança, els mètodes estàndards suposen que les condicions que produeixen la censura no afecten el temps de fallada. En aquest article formalitzem les condicions que asseguren la validesa d’aquesta versemblança simplificada. Així, precisem diferents condicions de censura no informativa i definim una condició de suma constant anàloga a la derivada en el context de censura per la dreta. També demostrem que les inferències obtingudes amb la versemblançaa simplificada són correctes quan aquestes condicions són certes. Finalment, tractem la identificabilitat de la funció distribució del temps de fallada a partir de la informació observada i estudiem la possibilitat de contrastar el compliment de la condició de suma constant.In survival data analysis the interval censoring problem has been usually treated via maximum likelihood inferences. In order to make use of a simpler expression of the likelihood function, standard methods suppose that conditions producing censoring do not affect the survival process. This paper is about formal conditions that ensure the validity of such a simplified likelihood. We state different notions of noninformative censoring appeared in the literature and we define the analogous constant–sum condition derived in the context of right censoring. We prove that the simplified likelihood produces correct inferences when these conditions hold. We discuss the identifiability of the distribution function of the failure time based on interval–censored data and we study the testability of the constant–sum condition.En análisis de la supervivencia el problema de los datos censurados en un intervalo se trata, habitualmente, mediante la estimación por máxima verosimilitud. Con el objetivo de utilizar una expresión simplificada de la función de verosimilitud, los métodos estándar suponen que las condiciones que producen la censura no afectan el tiempo de fallo. En este artículo formalizamos las condiciones que aseguran la validez de esta verosimilitud simplificada. Así, precisamos diferentes condiciones de censura no informativa i definimos una condición de suma constante análoga a la derivada en el contexto de censura por la derecha. También demostramos que las inferencias obtenidas con la verosimilitud simplificada son correctas cuando estas condiciones son ciertas. Finalmente, tratamos la identificabilidad de la función de distribución del tiempo de fallo a partir de la información observada y estudiamos la posibilidad de contrastar el cumplimiento de la condición de suma constant