Probability Distortion Depends on Choice Sequence in Rhesus Monkeys.

Humans and other primates share many decision biases, among them our subjective distortion of objective probabilities. When making choices between uncertain rewards we typically treat probabilities nonlinearly: overvaluing low probabilities of reward and undervaluing high ones. A growing body of evidence, however, points to a more flexible pattern of distortion than the classical inverse-S one, highlighting the effect of experimental conditions in shifting the weight assigned to probabilities, such as task feedback, learning, and attention. Here we investigated the role of sequence structure (the order in which gambles are presented in a choice task) in shaping the probability distortion patterns of rhesus macaques: we presented 2 male monkeys with binary choice sequences of MIXED or REPEATED gambles against safe rewards. Parametric modeling revealed that choices in each sequence type were guided by significantly different patterns of probability distortion: whereas we elicited the classical inverse-S-shaped probability distortion in pseudorandomly MIXED trial sequences of gamble-safe choices, we found the opposite pattern consisting of S-shaped distortion, with REPEATED sequences. We extended these results to binary choices between two gambles, without a safe option, and confirmed the unique influence of the sequence structure in which the animals make choices. Finally, we showed that the value of gambles experienced in the past had a significant impact on the subjective value of future ones, shaping probability distortion on a trial-by-trial basis. Together, our results suggest that differences in choice sequence are sufficient to reverse the direction of probability distortion.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Our lives are peppered with uncertain, probabilistic choices. Recent studies showed how such probabilities are subjectively distorted. In the present study, we show that probability distortions in macaque monkeys differ significantly between sequences in which single gambles are repeated (S-shaped distortion), as opposed to being pseudorandomly intermixed with other gambles (inverse-S-shaped distortion). Our findings challenge the idea of fixed probability distortions resulting from inflexible computations, and points to a more instantaneous evaluation of probabilistic information. Past trial outcomes appeared to drive the "gap" between probability distortions in different conditions. Our data suggest that, as in most adaptive systems, probability values are slowly but constantly updated from prior experience, driving measures of probability distortion to either side of the S/inverse-S debate.Funding sources: Wellcome Grants: WT 095495, WT 204811; ERC Advanced Grant: 29354

Three-micron spectroscopy of highly reddened field stars

Broad absorption features centered at 3.45 microns and at 3.0-3.0 microns towards a number of late-type supergiants in the vicinity of the galactic center were repeatedly reported. Here, 2.0 to 2.5 and 3.0 to 4.0 micron spectra are presented for field late-type highly reddened (A sub V is approximately 17-27) stars located in different regions of the galactic plane more than 20 deg away from the galactic center direction. The observations, made with the 3.6, 2.2, and 1.0 m ESO telescopes at La Silla, Chile, consists of CVF spectra with resolution lambda/delta lambda is approximately or equal to 100 and IRSPEC spectra with resolution lambda/delta lambda is approximately or equal to 700. In the direction of the most highly reddened stars, definitive detections of the 3.45 and the 3.0 to 3.1 micron absorption features are reported. The 3.45 micron feature was attributed to absorption arising in a vibrational transition resulting from the C-H stretching in organic compounds, while the 3.0 to 3.1 micron broader feature are tentatively attributed to O-H bonds. The observations strongly support that the agent producing the 3.45 micron feature, presumably organic molecules, is an important component of the diffuse interstellar medium and is not characteristic only of the galactic center environment

Nonhuman primates satisfy utility maximization in compliance with the continuity axiom of expected utility theory

Expected Utility Theory (EUT), the first axiomatic theory of risky choice, describes choices as a utility maximization process: decision makers assign a subjective value (utility) to each choice option and choose the one with the highest utility. The continuity axiom, central to Expected Utility Theory and its modifications, is a necessary and sufficient condition for the definition of numerical utilities. The axiom requires decision makers to be indifferent between a gamble and a specific probabilistic combination of a more preferred and a less preferred gamble. While previous studies demonstrated that monkeys choose according to combinations of objective reward magnitude and probability, a concept-driven experimental approach for assessing the axiomatically defined conditions for maximizing utility by animals is missing. We experimentally tested the continuity axiom for a broad class of gamble types in 4 male rhesus macaque monkeys, showing that their choice behavior complied with the existence of a numerical utility measure as defined by the economic theory. We used the numerical quantity specified in the continuity axiom to characterize subjective preferences in a magnitude-probability space. This mapping highlighted a trade-off relation between reward magnitudes and probabilities, compatible with the existence of a utility function underlying subjective value computation. These results support the existence of a numerical utility function able to describe choices, allowing for the investigation of the neuronal substrates responsible for coding such rigorously defined quantity

Mid Infrared Photometry of Mass-Losing AGB Stars

We present ground-based mid-infrared imaging for 27 M-, S- and C-type Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars. The data are compared with those of the database available thanks to the IRAS, ISO, MSX and 2MASS catalogues. Our goal is to establish relations between the IR colors, the effective temperature $T_{eff}$, the luminosity $L$ and the mass loss rate $\dot M$, for improving the effectiveness of AGB modelling. Bolometric (absolute) magnitudes are obtained through distance compilations, and by applying previously-derived bolometric corrections; the variability is also studied, using data accumulated since the IRAS epoch. The main results are: i) Values of $L$ and $\dot M$ for C stars fit relations previously established by us, with Miras being on average more evolved and mass losing than Semiregulars. ii) Moderate IR excesses (as compared to evolutionary tracks) are found for S and M stars in our sample: they are confirmed to originate from the dusty circumstellar environment. iii) A larger reddening characterizes C-rich Miras and post-AGBs. In this case, part of the excess is due to AGB models overestimating $T_{eff}$ for C-stars, as a consequence of the lack of suitable molecular opacities. This has a large effect on the colors of C-rich sources and sometimes disentangling the photospheric and circumstellar contributions is difficult; better model atmospheres should be used in stellar evolutionary codes for C stars. iv) The presence of a long-term variability at mid-IR wavelengths seems to be limited to sources with maximum emission in the 8 -- 20 $\mu$m region, usually Mira variables (1/3 of our sample). Most Semiregular and post-AGB stars studied here remained remarkably constant in mid-IR over the last twenty years.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal - 35 pages (in preprint), 9 figures, 5 table

HD108: the mystery deepens with XMM-Newton observations

In 2001, using a large spectroscopic dataset from an extensive monitoring campaign, we discovered that the peculiar Of star HD108 displayed spectacular line variations. This strange behaviour could be attributed to a variety of models, and an investigation of the high energy properties of HD108 was crucially needed to test the predictions from these models. Our dedicated XMM-Newton observation of HD108 shows that its spectrum is well represented by a two temperature thermal plasma model with kT_1\sim0.2 keV and kT_2sim1.4 keV. In addition, we find that the star does not display any significant short-term changes during the XMM-Newton exposure. Compared to previous Einstein and ROSAT detections, it also appears that HD108 does not present long-term flux variations either. While the dramatic line variations continue to modify HD108's spectrum in the optical domain, the X-ray emission of the star appears thus surprisingly stable: no simple model is for the moment able to explain such an unexpected behaviour. Thanks to its high sensitivity, the XMM-Newton observatory has also enabled the serendipitous discovery of 57 new X-ray sources in the field of HD108. Their properties are also discussed in this paper.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures (fig 1 in gif), accepted by A&A, also available at http://vela.astro.ulg.ac.be/Preprints/P84/index.htm

What is the real nature of HD 108 ?

Since the beginning of the past century, the nature of HD 108 has been a subject of intense debate. One after another, astronomers explored its variability and attributed it either to binarity, or to changes in the stellar wind of a single star. In this article, we analyse a 30 years long campaign of spectroscopic observations of this star with special emphasis on the last 15 years during which photographic plates have been replaced by CCD detectors. Our investigation of the radial velocities of HD 108 yields no significant short- or long-term period and does not confirm the published periodicities either. Though the radial velocity of HD 108 appears clearly variable, the variations cannot be explained by the orbital motion in a spectroscopic binary. However, our data reveal spectacular changes in the H I Balmer lines and some He I profiles over the years. These lines continuously evolved from P Cygni profiles to `pure' absorption lines. A similar behaviour was already observed in the past, suggesting that these changes are recurrent. HD 108 seems to share several characteristics of Oe stars and we discuss different hypotheses for the origin of the observed long-term variations. As we are now in a transition period, a continuous monitoring of HD 108 should be considered for the next few years.Comment: 13 pages with 9 figures, published in A&A. The paper is also available at http://vela.astro.ulg.ac.be/Preprints/P65/index.htm

"Delirium Day": A nationwide point prevalence study of delirium in older hospitalized patients using an easy standardized diagnostic tool

Background: To date, delirium prevalence in adult acute hospital populations has been estimated generally from pooled findings of single-center studies and/or among specific patient populations. Furthermore, the number of participants in these studies has not exceeded a few hundred. To overcome these limitations, we have determined, in a multicenter study, the prevalence of delirium over a single day among a large population of patients admitted to acute and rehabilitation hospital wards in Italy. Methods: This is a point prevalence study (called "Delirium Day") including 1867 older patients (aged 65 years or more) across 108 acute and 12 rehabilitation wards in Italian hospitals. Delirium was assessed on the same day in all patients using the 4AT, a validated and briefly administered tool which does not require training. We also collected data regarding motoric subtypes of delirium, functional and nutritional status, dementia, comorbidity, medications, feeding tubes, peripheral venous and urinary catheters, and physical restraints. Results: The mean sample age was 82.0 \ub1 7.5 years (58 % female). Overall, 429 patients (22.9 %) had delirium. Hypoactive was the commonest subtype (132/344 patients, 38.5 %), followed by mixed, hyperactive, and nonmotoric delirium. The prevalence was highest in Neurology (28.5 %) and Geriatrics (24.7 %), lowest in Rehabilitation (14.0 %), and intermediate in Orthopedic (20.6 %) and Internal Medicine wards (21.4 %). In a multivariable logistic regression, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.05), Activities of Daily Living dependence (OR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.12-1.27), dementia (OR 3.25, 95 % CI 2.41-4.38), malnutrition (OR 2.01, 95 % CI 1.29-3.14), and use of antipsychotics (OR 2.03, 95 % CI 1.45-2.82), feeding tubes (OR 2.51, 95 % CI 1.11-5.66), peripheral venous catheters (OR 1.41, 95 % CI 1.06-1.87), urinary catheters (OR 1.73, 95 % CI 1.30-2.29), and physical restraints (OR 1.84, 95 % CI 1.40-2.40) were associated with delirium. Admission to Neurology wards was also associated with delirium (OR 2.00, 95 % CI 1.29-3.14), while admission to other settings was not. Conclusions: Delirium occurred in more than one out of five patients in acute and rehabilitation hospital wards. Prevalence was highest in Neurology and lowest in Rehabilitation divisions. The "Delirium Day" project might become a useful method to assess delirium across hospital settings and a benchmarking platform for future surveys

Adaptation of utility functions to reward distribution in rhesus monkeys.

This study investigated how the experience of different reward distributions would shape the utility functions that can be inferred from economic choice. Despite the generally accepted notion that utility functions are not insensitive to external references, the exact way in which such changes take place remains largely unknown. Here we benefitted from the capacity to engage in thorough and prolonged empirical tests of economic choice by one of our evolutionary cousins, the rhesus macaque. We analyzed data from thousands of binary choices and found that the animals' preferences changed depending on the statistics of rewards experienced in the past (up to weeks) and that these changes could reflect monkeys' adapting their expectations of reward. The utility functions we elicited from their choices stretched and shifted over several months of sequential changes in the mean and range of rewards that the macaques experienced. However, this adaptation was usually incomplete, suggesting that - even after months - past experiences held weight when monkeys' assigned value to future rewards. Rather than having stable and fixed preferences assumed by normative economic models, our results demonstrate that rhesus macaques flexibly shape their preferences around the past and present statistics of their environment. That is, rather than relying on a singular reference-point, reference-dependent preferences are likely to capture a monkey's range of expectations