Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Magnetically Focused Proton Irradiation of Small Volume Radiosurgery Targets Using a Triplet of Quadrupole Magnets

Proton therapy is an advantageous choice for the irradiation of tumors in proximity of critical structures due to rapid dose fall off and high dose deposition at target compared to dose at the surface of the patient (ie, peak-to-entrance dose ratio (P/E)). However, with target fields below 1.0 cm, as often encountered in proton radiosurgery, multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS) broadens proton beams leading to diminished P/E advantages and reduced dose delivery efficiency (DDE). Magnetic focusing tends to counteract MCS and is a promising method to reduce these undesirable effects. The purpose of this research is to investigate the advantages of proton magnetic focusing with a triplet of quadrupole rare earth permanent magnets

Raptor talon shape and biomechanical performance are controlled by relative prey size but not by allometry

Most birds of prey (raptors), rely heavily on their talons for capturing prey. However, the relationship between talon shape and the ability to take prey is poorly understood. In this study we investigate whether raptor talons have evolved primarily in response to adaptive pressures exerted by different dietary demands, or if talon morphology is largely constrained by allometric or phylogenetic factors. We focus on the hallux talon and include 21 species in total varying greatly in body mass and feeding ecology, ranging from active predation on relatively large prey to obligate scavenging. To quantify the variation in talon shape and biomechanical performance within a phylogenetic framework, we combined three dimensional (3D) geometric morphometrics, finite element modelling and phylogenetic comparative methods. Our results indicate that relative prey size plays a key role in shaping the raptorial talon. Species that hunt larger prey are characterised by both distinct talon shape and mechanical performance when compared to species that predate smaller prey, even when accounting for phylogeny. In contrast to previous results of skull-based analysis, allometry had no significant effect. In conclusion, we found that raptor talon evolution has been strongly influenced by relative prey size, but not allometry and, that talon shape and mechanical performance are good indicators of feeding ecology

Mechanical analysis of feeding behavior in the extinct "Terror Bird" <i>Andalgalornis steulleti</i> (Gruiformes: phorusrhacidae)

The South American phorusrhacid bird radiation comprised at least 18 species of small to gigantic terrestrial predators for which there are no close modern analogs. Here we perform functional analyses of the skull of the medium-sized (,40 kg) patagornithine phorusrhacid Andalgalornis steulleti (upper Miocene-lower Pliocene, Andalgalá Formation, Catamarca, Argentina) to assess its mechanical performance in a comparative context. Based on computed tomographic (CT) scanning and morphological analysis, the skull of Andalgalornis steulleti is interpreted as showing features reflecting loss of intracranial immobility. Discrete anatomical attributes permitting such cranial kinesis are widespread phorusrhacids outgroups, but this is the first clear evidence of loss of cranial kinesis in a gruiform bird and may be among the best documented cases among all birds. This apomorphic loss is interpreted as an adaptation for enhanced craniofacial rigidity, particularly with regard to sagittal loading. We apply a Finite Element approach to a three-dimensional (3D) model of the skull. Based on regression analysis we estimate the bite force of Andalgalornis at the bill tip to be 133 N. Relative to results obtained from Finite Element Analysis of one of its closest living relatives (seriema) and a large predatory bird (eagle), the phorusrhacid's skull shows relatively high stress under lateral loadings, but low stress where force is applied dorsoventrally (sagittally) and in ''pullback'' simulations. Given the relative weakness of the skull mediolaterally, it seems unlikely that Andalgalornis engaged in potentially risky behaviors that involved subduing large, struggling prey with its beak. We suggest that it either consumed smaller prey that could be killed and consumed more safely (e.g., swallowed whole) or that it used multiple well-targeted sagittal strikes with the beak in a repetitive attack-and-retreat strategy.Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Muse

Solid State Microdosimetry With Heavy Ions for Space Applications

This work provides information pertaining to the performance of Silicon-On-Insulator (SOI) microdosimeters in heavy ion radiation fields. SOI microdosimeters have been previously tested in light ion radiation fields for both space and therapeutic applications, however their response has not been established in high energy, heavy ion radiation fields which are experienced in space. Irradiations were completed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory at BNL using 0.6 GeV/u Fe and 1.0 GeV/u Ti ions. Energy deposition and lineal energy spectra were obtained with this device at various depths within a Lucite phantom along the central axis of the beam. The response of which was compared with existing proportional counter data to assess the applicability of SOI microdosimeters to future deployments in space missions

A new family of bizarre durophagous carnivorous marsupials from Miocene deposits in the Riversleigh World Heritage Area, northwestern Queensland

A new specimen of the bizarrely specialised Malleodectes mirabilis from middle Miocene deposits in the Riversleigh World Heritage Area provides the first and only information about the molar dentition of this strange group of extinct marsupials. Apart from striking autapomorphies such as the enormous P3, other dental features such as stylar cusp D being larger than B suggest it belongs in the Order Dasyuromorphia. Phylogenetic analysis of 62 craniodental characters places Malleodectes within Dasyuromorphia albeit with weak support and without indication of specific relationships to any of the three established families (Dasyuridae, Myrmecobiidae and Thylacinidae). Accordingly we have allocated Malleodectes to the new family, Malleodectidae. Some features suggest potential links to previously named dasyuromorphians from Riversleigh (e.g., Ganbulanyi) but these are too poorly known to test this possibility. Although the original interpretation of a steeply declining molar row in Malleodectes can be rejected, it continues to seem likely that malleodectids specialised on snails but probably also consumed a wider range of prey items including small vertebrates. Whatever their actual diet, malleodectids appear to have filled a niche in Australia’s rainforests that has not been occupied by any other mammal group anywhere in the world from the Miocene onwards

"I am in favour of organ donation, but I feel you should opt-in"—qualitative analysis of the #options 2020 survey free-text responses from NHS staff toward opt-out organ donation legislation in England

\ua9 The Author(s) 2024. Background: In May 2020, England moved to an opt-out organ donation system, meaning adults are presumed to be an organ donor unless within an excluded group or have opted-out. This change aims to improve organ donation rates following brain or circulatory death. Healthcare staff in the UK are supportive of organ donation, however, both healthcare staff and the public have raised concerns and ethical issues regarding the change. The #options survey was completed by NHS organisations with the aim of understanding awareness and support of the change. This paper analyses the free-text responses from the survey. Methods: The #options survey was registered as a National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) portfolio trial [IRAS 275992] 14 February 2020, and was completed between July and December 2020 across NHS organisations in the North-East and North Cumbria, and North Thames. The survey contained 16 questions of which three were free-text, covering reasons against, additional information required and family discussions. The responses to these questions were thematically analysed. Results: The #options survey received 5789 responses from NHS staff with 1404 individuals leaving 1657 free-text responses for analysis. The family discussion question elicited the largest number of responses (66%), followed by those against the legislation (19%), and those requiring more information (15%). Analysis revealed six main themes with 22 sub-themes. Conclusions: The overall #options survey indicated NHS staff are supportive of the legislative change. Analysis of the free-text responses indicates that the views of the NHS staff who are against the change reflect the reasons, misconceptions, and misunderstandings of the public. Additional concerns included the rationale for the change, informed decision making, easy access to information and information regarding organ donation processes. Educational materials and interventions need to be developed for NHS staff to address the concepts of autonomy and consent, organ donation processes, and promote family conversations. Wider public awareness campaigns should continue to promote the positives and refute the negatives thus reducing misconceptions and misunderstandings. Trial registration: National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) [IRAS 275992]

Decoupling Functional and Morphological Convergence, the Study Case of Fossorial Mammalia

Morphological similarity between biological structures in phylogenetically distant species is usually regarded as evidence of convergent evolution. Yet, phenotypic similarity is not always a sign of natural selection acting on a particular trait, therefore adaptation to similar conditions may fail to generate convergent lineages. Herein we tested whether convergent evolution occurred in the humerus of fossorial mammals, one of the most derived biological structures among mammals. Clades adapting to digging kinematics possess unusual, by mammalian standards, humeral shapes. The application of a new, computationally fast morphological test revealed a single significant instance of convergence pertaining to the Japanese fossorial moles (Mogera) and the North-American fossorial moles (Scalopini). Yet, the pattern only manifests when trade-off performance data (derived from finite element analysis) are added to shape data. This result indicates that fossorial mammals have found multiple solutions to the same adaptive challenge, independently moving around multiple adaptive peaks. This study suggests the importance of accounting for functional trade-off measures when studying morpho-functional convergence. We revealed that fossorial mammals, a classic example of convergent evolution, evolved multiple strategies to exploit the subterranean ecotope, characterized by different functional trade-offs rather than converging toward a single adaptive optimum