Gulf Coast assessment overview/charge to the workshop

There are several reasons that the U. S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has initiated the U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. The reasons all revolve around answering questions posed in Washington by members of Congress on behalf of their constituents as to why climate change concerns them. This workshop is part of the process for getting better answers to these questions. This paper briefly reviews the science of climate change and the human influence on climate change, discusses future climate change, and considers national and international perspectives on global change. It discusses the potential for mitigation of climate change and the need to cope with climate change. The author explains the U.S. National Assessment

National assessment of the consequences of climate change for the United States

The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is initiating a national assessment of the consequences of climate change and climate variability for the United States and the significance of these consequences for its people

National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States

The first U.S. National Assessment of the PotentialConsequences of Climate Variability and Change for theUnited States is being conducted under the auspices of theU.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). TheUSGCRP was established through the Global ChangeResearch Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606) and mandatedthrough the statute with the responsibility to undertakeperiodic scientific assessments of the potentialconsequences of global change for the United States. Thegoal of the National Assessment is to analyze andevaluate what is known about the potential consequencesof climate variability and change for the nation in thecontext of other pressures on the public, the environment,and the nation\u27s resources. The conduct of the nationalassessment process will involve a broad spectrum ofstakeholders from state, local, tribal, and Federalgovernments; business; labor; academia; non-profitorganizations; and the general public. The assessmentwill link research by scientists to specific needs of thestakeholders, and will provide planners, managers,organizations, and the public with the information neededto increase resilience to climate variability and cope withclimate change. The national assessment will becomprised of three components: (1) National synthesis,(2) Sectoral analyses (agriculture, forestry, waterresources, human health, and the coastal zone), and(3) Regional analyses. To facilitate comparison,integration, and synthesis of each of the assessmentcomponents, all regional, sectoral, and synthesis analyseswill use a common set of scenarios for climate change and changes in socio-economic conditions. Specific responsibilities have been defined for oversight of the components of the national assessment and forcoordination activities. A National Assessment SynthesisTeam (NAST) will provide overall intellectual oversightof the national assessment process and has responsibilityfor the development of the Synthesis Report. A NationalAssessment Working Group under the auspices of theUSGCRP has lead responsibility for organizing andsponsoring the sectoral analyses and oversight andcoordination responsibilities for regional analyses. ANational Assessment Coordination Office has beenestablished to facilitate coordination of the entire nationalassessment process. The National Assessment SynthesisReport is targeted for completion by January 1, 2000, andis intended to satisfy the mandate for an assessmentdefined in P.L. 101-606 and serve as part of the U.S.contribution to the IPCC Third Assessment Report

IAMAS: a century of international cooperation in atmospheric sciences

The International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS) was founded in 1919 as the Section of Meteorology of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG). Significant advances over human history, particularly during the 19th century, in the gathering, communication, assembly and analysis of observations of the changing weather and in theoretical understanding of the fundamental physical relationships and processes governing atmospheric circulation had been driven by the need for improved weather and climate forecasts to support the expansion of global trade, better public warnings of extreme weather, and safer and more effective military operations. Since its foundation, in parallel and cooperation with intergovernmental development under the auspices of what is now the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), IAMAS and its 10 international commissions have provided the international organizational framework for the convening of the general and scientific assemblies and other meetings that bring together expert scientists from around the world to further advance scientific understanding and prediction of the behaviour of the atmosphere and its connections to and effects on other components of the Earth's intercoupled geophysical system.</p

Return to 1990: The cost of mitigating United States carbon emissions in the post-2000 period

The Second Generation Model (SGM) is employed to examine four hypothetical agreements to reduce emissions in Annex 1 nations (OECD nations plus most of the nations of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union) to levels in the neighborhood of those which existed in 1990, with obligations taking effect in the year 2010. The authors estimate the cost to the US of complying with such agreements under three distinct conditions: no trading of emissions rights, trading of emissions rights only among Annex 1 nations, and a fully global trading regime. The authors find that the marginal cost of returning to 1990 emissions levels in the US in the absence of trading opportunities is approximately $108 per metric ton carbon in 2010. The total cost in that year is approximately 0.2% of GDP. International trade in emissions permits lowers the cost of achieving any mitigation objective by equalizing the marginal cost of carbon mitigation among countries. For the four mitigation scenarios in this study, economic costs to the US remain below 1% of GDP through at least the year 2020

Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results

International audienceWe present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercompari-son Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named Ge-oMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercom-parison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more longwave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. This is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities

Performing the Digital Self: Understanding Location-Based Social Networking, Territory, Space, and Identity in the City

Expressions of territoriality have been positioned as one of the main reasons users alter their behaviors and perceptions of spatiality and sociality while engaging with location-based social networks (LBSN). Despite the potential for this interplay to further our understanding of LBSN usage in the context of identity, very little work has actually been done towards this. Addressing this gap in the literature is one the chief aims of the article. Drawing on an original six-week study with 42 participants utilizing a bespoke LBSN entitled ‘GeoMoments’, our research explores: (1) the way that territoriality is linked to self-identity; and (2) how this interplay affects the interactions between users as well as the environments they inhabit. Our findings suggest that participants affirmed their self-identity by selectively posting and claiming ownership of their neighborhood through the LBSN. Here, the locative decisions made related to risk, hierarchies, and the users’ relationship to the area. This practice then led participants to discover and interact with the digital information overlaying their physical environments in a playful manner. These interactions demonstrate the perceived power structures that are facilitated by identity claims over a virtual area. In the main, our results reaffirm that territoriality is a central concept in understanding LBSN use, while also drawing attention to the temporality involved in user-to-user and user-to-place interactions pertaining to physical place mediated by LBSN