Modeling factors influencing the demand for emergency department services in ontario: a comparison of methods

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Emergency departments are medical treatment facilities, designed to provide episodic care to patients suffering from acute injuries and illnesses as well as patients who are experiencing sporadic flare-ups of underlying chronic medical conditions which require immediate attention. Supply and demand for emergency department services varies across geographic regions and time. Some persons do not rely on the service at all whereas; others use the service on repeated occasions. Issues regarding increased wait times for services and crowding illustrate the need to investigate which factors are associated with increased frequency of emergency department utilization. The evidence from this study can help inform policy makers on the appropriate mix of supply and demand targeted health care policies necessary to ensure that patients receive appropriate health care delivery in an efficient and cost-effective manner. The purpose of this report is to assess those factors resulting in increased demand for emergency department services in Ontario. We assess how utilization rates vary according to the severity of patient presentation in the emergency department. We are specifically interested in the impact that access to primary care physicians has on the demand for emergency department services. Additionally, we wish to investigate these trends using a series of novel regression models for count outcomes which have yet to be employed in the domain of emergency medical research.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data regarding the frequency of emergency department visits for the respondents of Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) during our study interval (2003-2005) are obtained from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS). Patients' emergency department utilizations were linked with information from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) which provides individual level medical, socio-demographic, psychological and behavioral information for investigating predictors of increased emergency department utilization. Six different multiple regression models for count data were fitted to assess the influence of predictors on demand for emergency department services, including: Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial, Hurdle Poisson, and Hurdle Negative Binomial. Comparison of competing models was assessed by the Vuong test statistic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The CCHS cycle 2.1 respondents were a roughly equal mix of males (50.4%) and females (49.6%). The majority (86.2%) were young-middle aged adults between the ages of 20-64, living in predominantly urban environments (85.9%), with mid-high household incomes (92.2%) and well-educated, receiving at least a high-school diploma (84.1%). Many participants reported no chronic disease (51.9%), fell into a small number (0-5) of ambulatory diagnostic groups (62.3%), and perceived their health status as good/excellent (88.1%); however, were projected to have high Resource Utilization Band levels of health resource utilization (68.2%). These factors were largely stable for CCHS cycle 3.1 respondents. Factors influencing demand for emergency department services varied according to the severity of triage scores at initial presentation. For example, although a non-significant predictor of the odds of emergency department utilization in high severity cases, access to a primary care physician was a statistically significant predictor of the likelihood of emergency department utilization (OR: 0.69; 95% CI OR: 0.63-0.75) and the rate of emergency department utilization (RR: 0.57; 95% CI RR: 0.50-0.66) in low severity cases.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Using a theoretically appropriate hurdle negative binomial regression model this unique study illustrates that access to a primary care physician is an important predictor of both the odds and rate of emergency department utilization in Ontario. Restructuring primary care services, with aims of increasing access to undersupplied populations may result in decreased emergency department utilization rates by approximately 43% for low severity triage level cases.</p

Hospital and outpatient clinic utilization among older people in the 3-5 years following the initiation of continuing care: a longitudinal cohort study

Background: Few studies have investigated the subsequent rate of hospital and outpatient clinic utilization in those who receive continuing care and have documented frequent usage over one year. Such knowledge may be helpful in identifying those who would benefit from preventive interventions. The aim of this study was to investigate and compare the subsequent rate of hospital and outpatient clinic utilization among older people with 0, 1, 2, 3 or more hospital stays in the first year following the initiation of continuing care. A further aim was to compare these groups regarding demographic data, health complaints, functional and cognitive ability, informal care and mortality. Methods: A total of 1079 people, aged 65 years or older, who received a decision regarding the initiation of continuing care during the years 2001, 2002 or 2003 were investigated. Four groups were created based on whether they had 0, 1, 2 or >= 3 hospital stays in the first year following the initiation of continuing care and were investigated regarding the rate of hospital and outpatient clinic utilization in the subsequent 3-5 years. Results: Fifty seven percent of the sample had no hospital stay during the first year following the initiation of continuing care, 20% had 1 stay, 10% had 2 stays and 13% had three or more hospital stays (range: 3-13). Those with >= 3 hospital stays in the first year continued to have the significantly highest rate of hospital and outpatient care utilization in the subsequent years. This group accounted for 57% of hospital stays in the first year, 27% in the second year and 18% in the third year. In this group the risk of having >= 3 hospital stays in the second year was 27% and 12% in the third year. Conclusions: There is a clear need for interventions targeted on prevention of frequent hospital and outpatient clinic utilization among those who are high users of hospital care in the first year after the initiation of continuing care. Perhaps an increased availability of medically skilled staff in the day to day care of these people in the municipalities could prevent frequent hospital and outpatient clinic utilization, especially hospital readmissions

Sex, age, deprivation and patterns in life expectancy in Quebec, Canada: a population-based study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Little research has evaluated disparities in life expectancy according to material deprivation taking into account differences across the lifespan between men and women. This study investigated age- and sex-specific life expectancy differentials related to area-level material deprivation for the province of Québec, Canada from 1989-2004.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Age- and sex-specific life expectancy across the lifespan was calculated for three periods (1989-1992, 1995-1998, and 2001-2004) for the entire Québec population residing in 162 community groupings ranked according to decile of material deprivation. Absolute and relative measures were calculated to summarize differences between the most and least deprived deciles.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Life expectancy differentials between the most and least deprived deciles were greatest for men. Over time, male differentials increased for age 20 or more, with little change occurring at younger ages. For women, differentials increased across the lifespan and were comparable to men at advanced ages. Despite gains in life expectancy among men relative to women, differentials between men and women were greater for most deprived relative to least deprived deciles.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Similar to the US, differentials in life expectancy associated with area-level material deprivation increased steadily in Québec from 1989-2004 for males and females of all ages. Differentials were comparable between men and women at advanced ages. Previous research indicating that life expectancy differentials between most and least deprived areas are greater in men may be due to a focus on younger age groups.</p

Short-term geriatric assessment units: 30 years later

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The increasing number of hospitalized elderly persons has greatly challenged decision makers to reorganize services so as to meet the needs of this clientele. Established progressively over the last 30 years, the short-term Geriatric Assessment Unit (GAU) is a specialized care program, now implemented in all the general hospital centres in Quebec. Within the scope of a broader reflection upon the appropriate care delivery for elderly patients in our demographic context, there is a need to revisit the role of GAU within the hospital and the continuum of care. The objective of this project is to describe the range of activities offered by Quebec GAU and the resources available to them.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 2004, 64 managers of 71 GAU answered a mail questionnaire which included 119 items covering their unit's operation and resources in 2002-2003. The clinical and administrative characteristics of the clientele admitted during this period were obtained from the provincial database Med-Echo. The results were presented according to the geographical location of GAU, their size, their university academic affiliation, the composition of their medical staff, and their clinical care profile.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, GAU programs admitted 9% of all patients aged 65 years and older in the surveyed year. GAU patients presented one or more geriatric syndromes, including dementia. Based on their clientele, three distinct clinical care profiles of GAU were identified. Only 19% of GAU were focused on geriatric assessment and acute care management; 23% mainly offered rehabilitation care, and the others offered a mix of both types. Thus, there was a significant heterogeneity in GAU's operation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The GAU is at the cutting edge of geriatric services in hospital centres. Given the scarcity of these resources, it would be appropriate to better target the clientele that may benefit from them. Standardizing and promoting GAU's primary role in acute care must be reinforced. In order to meet the needs of the frail elderly not admitted in GAU, alternative care models centered on prevention of functional decline must be applied throughout all hospital wards.</p

Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) Antidepressants in Pregnancy and Congenital Anomalies: Analysis of Linked Databases in Wales, Norway and Funen, Denmark

Background: Hypothesised associations between in utero exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and congenital anomalies, particularly congenital heart defects (CHD), remain controversial. We investigated the putative teratogenicity of SSRI prescription in the 91 days either side of first day of last menstrual period (LMP). Methods and Findings: Three population-based EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries- Norway (2004–2010), Wales (2000–2010) and Funen, Denmark (2000–2010)—were linked to the electronic healthcare databases holding prospectively collected prescription information for all pregnancies in the timeframes available. We included 519,117 deliveries, including foetuses terminated for congenital anomalies, with data covering pregnancy and the preceding quarter, including 462,641 with data covering pregnancy and one year either side. For SSRI exposures 91 days either side of LMP, separately and together, odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (ORs, 95%CI) for all major anomalies were estimated. We also explored: pausing or discontinuing SSRIs preconception, confounding, high dose regimens, and, in Wales, diagnosis of depression. Results were combined in meta-analyses. SSRI prescription 91 days either side of LMP was associated with increased prevalence of severe congenital heart defects (CHD) (as defined by EUROCAT guide 1.3, 2005) (34/12,962 [0.26%] vs. 865/506,155 [0.17%] OR 1.50, 1.06–2.11), and the composite adverse outcome of 'anomaly or stillbirth' (473/12962, 3.65% vs. 15829/506,155, 3.13%, OR 1.13, 1.03–1.24). The increased prevalence of all major anomalies combined did not reach statistical significance (3.09% [400/12,962] vs. 2.67% [13,536/506,155] OR 1.09, 0.99–1.21). Adjusting for socio-economic status left ORs largely unchanged. The prevalence of anomalies and severe CHD was reduced when SSRI prescriptions were stopped or paused preconception, and increased when >1 prescription was recorded, but differences were not statistically significant. The dose-response relationship between severe CHD and SSRI dose (meta-regression OR 1.49, 1.12–1.97) was consistent with SSRI-exposure related risk. Analyses in Wales suggested no associations between anomalies and diagnosed depression. Conclusion: The additional absolute risk of teratogenesis associated with SSRIs, if causal, is small. However, the high prevalence of SSRI use augments its public health importance, justifying modifications to preconception care

Micronutrient fortification of food and its impact on woman and child health: A systematic review

Background: Vitamins and minerals are essential for growth and metabolism. The World Health Organization estimates that more than 2 billion people are deficient in key vitamins and minerals. Groups most vulnerable to these micronutrient deficiencies are pregnant and lactating women and young children, given their increased demands. Food fortification is one of the strategies that has been used safely and effectively to prevent vitamin and mineral deficiencies.Methods: A comprehensive search was done to identify all available evidence for the impact of fortification interventions. Studies were included if food was fortified with a single, dual or multiple micronutrients and impact of fortification was analyzed on the health outcomes and relevant biochemical indicators of women and children. We performed a meta-analysis of outcomes using Review Manager Software version 5.1.Results: Our systematic review identified 201 studies that we reviewed for outcomes of relevance. Fortification for children showed significant impacts on increasing serum micronutrient concentrations. Hematologic markers also improved, including hemoglobin concentrations, which showed a significant rise when food was fortified with vitamin A, iron and multiple micronutrients. Fortification with zinc had no significant adverse impact on hemoglobin levels. Multiple micronutrient fortification showed non-significant impacts on height for age, weight for age and weight for height Z-scores, although they showed positive trends. The results for fortification in women showed that calcium and vitamin D fortification had significant impacts in the post-menopausal age group. Iron fortification led to a significant increase in serum ferritin and hemoglobin levels in women of reproductive age and pregnant women. Folate fortification significantly reduced the incidence of congenital abnormalities like neural tube defects without increasing the incidence of twinning. The number of studies pooled for zinc and multiple micronutrients for women were few, though the evidence suggested benefit. There was a dearth of evidence for the impact of fortification strategies on morbidity and mortality outcomes in women and children.Conclusion: Fortification is potentially an effective strategy but evidence from the developing world is scarce. Programs need to assess the direct impact of fortification on morbidity and mortality