Uncertainty propagation for flood forecasting in the Alps: different views and impacts from MAP D-PHASE

D-PHASE was a Forecast Demonstration Project of theWorldWeather Research Programme (WWRP) related to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its goal was to demonstrate the reliability and quality of operational forecasting of orographically influenced (determined) precipitation in the Alps and its consequences on the distribution of run-off characteristics. A special focus was, of course, on heavy-precipitation events. The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) ran from June to November 2007, during which an end-to-end forecasting system was operated covering many individual catchments in the Alps, with their water authorities, civil protection organizations or other end users. The forecasting system’s core piece was a Visualization Platform where precipitation and flood warnings from some 30 atmospheric and 7 hydrological models (both deterministic and probabilistic) and corresponding model fields were displayed in uniform and comparable formats. Also, meteograms, nowcasting information and end user communication was made available to all the forecasters, users and end users. D-PHASE information was assessed and used by some 50 different groups ranging from atmospheric forecasters to civil protection authorities or water management bodies. In the present contribution, D-PHASE is briefly presented along with its outstanding scientific results and, in particular, the lessons learnt with respect to uncertainty propagation. A focus is thereby on the transfer of ensemble prediction information into the hydrological community and its use with respect to other aspects of societal impact. Objective verification of forecast quality is contrasted to subjective quality assessments during the project (end user workshops, questionnaires) and some general conclusions concerning forecast demonstration projects are drawn

Human–nature connection: a multidisciplinary review

In sustainability science calls are increasing for humanity to (re-)connect with nature, yet no systematic synthesis of the empirical literature on human–nature connection (HNC) exists. We reviewed 475 publications on HNC and found that most research has concentrated on individuals at local scales, often leaving ‘nature’ undefined. Cluster analysis identified three subgroups of publications: first, HNC as mind, dominated by the use of psychometric scales, second, HNC as experience, characterised by observation and qualitative analysis; and third, HNC as place, emphasising place attachment and reserve visitation. To address the challenge of connecting humanity with nature, future HNC scholarship must pursue cross-fertilization of methods and approaches, extend research beyond individuals, local scales, and Western societies, and increase guidance for sustainability transformations

Pollutant dispersion in a developing valley cold-air pool

Pollutants are trapped and accumulate within cold-air pools, thereby affecting air quality. A numerical model is used to quantify the role of cold-air-pooling processes in the dispersion of air pollution in a developing cold-air pool within an alpine valley under decoupled stable conditions. Results indicate that the negatively buoyant downslope flows transport and mix pollutants into the valley to depths that depend on the temperature deficit of the flow and the ambient temperature structure inside the valley. Along the slopes, pollutants are generally entrained above the cold-air pool and detrained within the cold-air pool, largely above the ground-based inversion layer. The ability of the cold-air pool to dilute pollutants is quantified. The analysis shows that the downslope flows fill the valley with air from above, which is then largely trapped within the cold-air pool, and that dilution depends on where the pollutants are emitted with respect to the positions of the top of the ground-based inversion layer and cold-air pool, and on the slope wind speeds. Over the lower part of the slopes, the cold-air-pool-averaged concentrations are proportional to the slope wind speeds where the pollutants are emitted, and diminish as the cold-air pool deepens. Pollutants emitted within the ground-based inversion layer are largely trapped there. Pollutants emitted farther up the slopes detrain within the cold-air pool above the ground-based inversion layer, although some fraction, increasing with distance from the top of the slopes, penetrates into the ground-based inversion layer.Peer reviewe

Reconnecting with nature for sustainability

Calls for humanity to ‘reconnect to nature’ have grown increasingly louder from both scholars and civil society. Yet, there is relatively little coherence about what reconnecting to nature means, why it should happen and how it can be achieved. We present a conceptual framework to organise existing literature and direct future research on human–nature connections. Five types of connections to nature are identified: material, experiential, cognitive, emotional, and philosophical. These various types have been presented as causes, consequences, or treatments of social and environmental problems. From this conceptual base, we discuss how reconnecting people with nature can function as a treatment for the global environmental crisis. Adopting a social–ecological systems perspective, we draw upon the emerging concept of ‘leverage points’—places in complex systems to intervene to generate change—and explore examples of how actions to reconnect people with nature can help transform society towards sustainability

The Application of LiDAR to Assessment of Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Deployment Potential in a Municipal District Unit

A methodology is provided for the application of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) to automated solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment analysis on the regional scale. Challenges in urban information extraction and management for solar PV deployment assessment are determined and quantitative solutions are offered. This paper provides the following contributions: (i) a methodology that is consistent with recommendations from existing literature advocating the integration of cross-disciplinary competences in remote sensing (RS), GIS, computer vision and urban environmental studies; (ii) a robust methodology that can work with low-resolution, incomprehensive data and reconstruct vegetation and building separately, but concurrently; (iii) recommendations for future generation of software. A case study is presented as an example of the methodology. Experience from the case study such as the trade-off between time consumption and data quality are discussed to highlight a need for connectivity between demographic information, electrical engineering schemes and GIS and a typical factor of solar useful roofs extracted per method. Finally, conclusions are developed to provide a final methodology to extract the most useful information from the lowest resolution and least comprehensive data to provide solar electric assessments over large areas, which can be adapted anywhere in the world

BACE1 RNAi restores the composition of phosphatidylethanolamine-derivates related to memory improvement in aged 3xTg-AD mice

ABSTRACT: β-amyloid (Aβ) is produced by the β-secretase 1 (BACE1)-mediated enzymatic cleavage of the amyloid precursor protein through the amyloidogenic pathway, making BACE1 a therapeutic target against Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Alterations in lipid metabolism are a risk factor for AD by an unknown mechanism. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of RNA interference against BACE1 (shBACEmiR) on the phospholipid profile in hippocampal CA1 area in aged 3xTg-AD mice after 6 and 12 months of treatment compared to aged PS1KI mice. The shBACEmiR treatment induced cognitive function recovery and restored mainly the fatty acid composition of lysophosphatidylethanolamine and etherphosphatidylethanolamine, reduced the cPLA2’s phosphorylation, down-regulated the levels of arachidonic acid and COX2 in the hippocampi of 3xTg-AD mice. Together, our findings suggest, for the first time, that BACE1 silencing restores phospholipids composition which could favor the recovery of cellular homeostasis and cognitive function in the hippocampus of triple transgenic AD mice. Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, phospholipids, BACE1, RNA interference, hippocampus, cognitive functio