D-PHASE was a Forecast Demonstration Project
of theWorldWeather Research Programme (WWRP) related
to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its goal was to
demonstrate the reliability and quality of operational forecasting
of orographically influenced (determined) precipitation
in the Alps and its consequences on the distribution of
run-off characteristics. A special focus was, of course, on
heavy-precipitation events.
The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) ran from June
to November 2007, during which an end-to-end forecasting
system was operated covering many individual catchments
in the Alps, with their water authorities, civil protection organizations
or other end users. The forecasting system’s core
piece was a Visualization Platform where precipitation and
flood warnings from some 30 atmospheric and 7 hydrological
models (both deterministic and probabilistic) and corresponding
model fields were displayed in uniform and comparable
formats. Also, meteograms, nowcasting information
and end user communication was made available to all the
forecasters, users and end users. D-PHASE information was
assessed and used by some 50 different groups ranging from
atmospheric forecasters to civil protection authorities or water
management bodies.
In the present contribution, D-PHASE is briefly presented
along with its outstanding scientific results and, in particular,
the lessons learnt with respect to uncertainty propagation. A
focus is thereby on the transfer of ensemble prediction information
into the hydrological community and its use with
respect to other aspects of societal impact. Objective verification
of forecast quality is contrasted to subjective quality
assessments during the project (end user workshops, questionnaires) and some general conclusions concerning forecast
demonstration projects are drawn