Predictive verification for the design of partially exchangeable multi-model ensembles

This is the final version. Available on open access from Taylor & Francis via the DOI in this recordThe performance of an ensemble forecast, as measured by scoring rules, depends on its number of members. Under the assumption of ensemble member exchangeability, ensemble-adjusted scores provide unbiased estimates of the ensemble-size effect. In this study, the concept of ensemble-adjusted scores is revisited and exploited in the general context of multi-model ensemble forecasting. In particular, an ensemblesize adjustment is proposed for the continuous ranked probability score in a multi-model ensemble setting. The method requires that the ensemble forecasts satisfy generalized multi-model exchangeability conditions. These conditions do not require the models themselves to be exchangeable. The adjusted scores are tested here on a dual-resolution ensemble, an ensemble which combines members drawn from the same numerical model but run at two different grid resolutions. It is shown that performance of different ensemble combinations can be robustly estimated based on a small subset of members from each model. At no additional cost, the ensemble-size effect is investigated not only considering the pooling of potential extra-members but also including the impact of optimal weighting strategies. With simple and efficient tools, the proposed methodology paves the way for predictive verification of multi-model ensemble forecasts; the derived statistics can provide guidance for the design of future operational ensemble configurations without having to run additional ensemble forecast experiments for all the potential configurations

Study of the combined effects of data assimilation and grid nesting in ocean models - application to the Gulf of Lions

Modern operational ocean forecasting systems routinely use data assimilation techniques in order to takeobservations into account in the hydrodynamic model. Moreover, as end users require higher and higher resolution predictions, especially in coastal zones, it is now common to run nested models, where the coastal model gets its opensea boundary conditions from a low-resolution global model. This configuration is used in the “Mediterranean Forecasting System: Towards environmental predictions” (MFSTEP) project. A global model covering the whole Mediterranean Sea is run weekly, performing 1 week of hindcast and a 10-day forecast. Regional models, using different codes and covering different areas, then use this forecast to implement boundary conditions. Local models in turn use the regional model forecasts for their own boundary conditions. This nested system has proven to be a viable and efficient system to achieve high-resolution weekly forecasts. However, when observations are available in some coastal zone, it remains unclear whether it is better to assimilate them in the global or local model. We perform twin experiments and assimilate observations in the global or in the local model, or in both of them together. We show that, when interested in the local models forecast and provided the global model fields are approximately correct, the best results are obtained when assimilating observations in the local model

Lymphome t/nk primitif du larynx : localisation inhabituelle de lymphome extranodal

Nous rapportons un cas de lymphome extranodal T/Nk primitif du larynx. il s’agit d’un patient âgé de 22 ans qui s’était présenté pour une dysphonie chronique associée à une dyspnée inspiratoire. une chimiothérapie protocole SMiLE avec radiothérapie ont été institués avec obtention d’une rémission complète. Huit mois plus tard, le patient présentait une récidive de la tumeur avec un oedème palpébral et une obstruction du canal lacrymonasal. L’évolution a été fatale suite à une aspergillose invasive en cours de chimiothérapie.Mots clés : lymphome, larynx.A rare case of primary laryngeal T/Nk- cell lymphoma, nasal type is reported. The patient was 22-year old male who presented with dysphonia, dyspnea. Chemotherapy protocol SMiLE and radiotherapy were instituted with complete remission of the tumor. Eight months afterward, he presented with tumor recurrence, palpebral edema, obstruction of the lacrymonasal duct. He died within few days with invasive aspergillosis while he was receiving chemotherapy SMiLE regimen.Keyswords : lymphoma, larynx

Regularized multiframe super-resolution image reconstruction using linear and nonlinear filters

The primary goal of the multiframe super-resolution image reconstruction is to produce an image with a higher resolution by integrating information extracted from a set of corresponding images with low resolution, which is used in various fields. However, super-resolution image reconstruction approaches are typically affected by annoying restorative artifacts, including blurring, noise, and staircasing effect. Accordingly, it is always difficult to balance between smoothness and edge preservation. In this paper, we intend to enhance the efficiency of multiframe super-resolution image reconstruction in order to optimize both analysis and human interpretation processes by improving the pictorial information and enhancing the automatic machine perception. As a result, we propose new approaches that firstly rely on estimating the initial high-resolution image through preprocessing of the reference low-resolution image based on median, mean, Lucy-Richardson, and Wiener filters. )is preprocessing stage is used to overcome the degradation present in the reference low-resolution image, which is a suitable kernel for producing the initial high-resolution image to be used in the reconstruction phase of the final image. then, L2 norm is employed for the data-fidelity term to minimize the residual among the predicted high-resolution image and the observed low-resolution images. Finally, bilateral total variation prior model is utilized to restrict the minimization function to a stable state of the generated HR image. )e experimental results of the synthetic data indicate that the proposed approaches have enhanced efficiency visually and quantitatively compared to other existing approaches

High Prevalence of Extended-Spectrum Beta Lactamases among Salmonella enterica Typhimurium Isolates from Pediatric Patients with Diarrhea in China

We investigated the extended-spectrum beta lactamases among 62 Salmonella enterica Typhimurium isolates recovered from children with diarrhea in a Chinese pediatric hospital. A large proportion of S. enterica Typhimurium isolates were resistant to multiple antimicrobial agents, including ampicillin (90.3%), tetracycline (80.6%), trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (74.2%), chloramphenicol (66.1%), cefotaxime (27.4%). Forty-nine (79.0%) of S. enterica Typhimurium isolates were positive for blaTEM-1b and resistant to ampicillin. Thirteen S. enterica Typhimurium isolates (21.0%) were positive for blaCTX-M-1-group and blaCTX-M-9-group, and all isolates harboring blaCTX-M genes were positive for ISEcp1. Two main clones (PFGE type A and D) accounted for nearly 70% of S. enterica Typhimurium isolates, and 7 CTX-M-producing isolates belonged to PFGE type D. Collectively, our data reveal multi-drug resistance and a high prevalence of extended spectrum beta lactamases among S. enterica Typhimurium isolates from children in China. In addition, we report the first identification of blaCTX-M-55 within Salmonella spp. Our data also suggest that clonal spread is responsible for the dissemination of S. enterica Typhimurium isolates

Characterization of CTX-M ESBLs in Enterobacter cloacae, Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae clinical isolates from Cairo, Egypt

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A high rate of resistance to 3^rdgeneration cephalosporins among Enterobacteriaceae isolates from Egypt has been previously reported. This study aims to characterize the resistance mechanism (s) to extended spectrum cephalosporins among resistant clinical isolates at a medical institute in Cairo, Egypt.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Nonconsecutive <it>Klebsiella pneumoniae </it>(Kp), <it>Enterobacter cloacae </it>(ENT) and <it>Escherichia coli </it>(EC) isolates were obtained from the clinical laboratory at the medical institute. Antibiotic susceptibility was tested by CLSI disk diffusion and ESBL confirmatory tests. MICs were determined using broth microdilution. Isoelectric focusing (IEF) was used to determine the pI values, inhibitor profiles, and cefotaxime (CTX) hydrolysis by the β-lactamases. PCR and sequencing were performed using <it>bla</it>_CTX-Mand IS<it>Ecp1</it>-specific primers, with DNA obtained from the clinical isolates. Conjugation experiments were done to determine the mobility of <it>bla</it>_CTX-M.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All five clinical isolates were resistant to CTX, and were positive for ESBL screening. IEF revealed multiple β-lactamases produced by each isolate, including a β-lactamase with a pI of 8.0 in Kp and ENT and a β-lactamase with a pI of 9.0 in EC. Both β-lactamases were inhibited by clavulanic acid and hydrolyzed CTX. PCR and sequence analysis identified <it>bla</it>_CTX-M-14in Kp and ENT and a <it>bla</it>_CTX-M-15in EC. Both <it>bla</it>_CTX-M-14and <it>bla</it>_CTX-M-15were preceded by IS<it>Ecp1 </it>elements as revealed by partial sequence analysis of the upstream region of the <it>bla</it>_CTX-Mgenes. <it>bla</it>_CTX-M-15 was transferable but not <it>bla</it>_CTX-M-14.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is the first report of CTX-M-14 in Kp and ENT isolates from Egypt, the Middle East and North Africa.</p

The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.publishedVersio

Collateral circulation: Past and present

Following an arterial occlusion outward remodeling of pre-existent inter-connecting arterioles occurs by proliferation of vascular smooth muscle and endothelial cells. This is initiated by deformation of the endothelial cells through increased pulsatile fluid shear stress (FSS) caused by the steep pressure gradient between the high pre-occlusive and the very low post-occlusive pressure regions that are interconnected by collateral vessels. Shear stress leads to the activation and expression of all NOS isoforms and NO production, followed by endothelial VEGF secretion, which induces MCP-1 synthesis in endothelium and in the smooth muscle of the media. This leads to attraction and activation of monocytes and T-cells into the adventitial space (peripheral collateral vessels) or attachment of these cells to the endothelium (coronary collaterals). Mononuclear cells produce proteases and growth factors to digest the extra-cellular scaffold and allow motility and provide space for the new cells. They also produce NO from iNOS, which is essential for arteriogenesis. The bulk of new tissue production is carried by the smooth muscles of the media, which transform their phenotype from a contractile into a synthetic and proliferative one. Important roles are played by actin binding proteins like ABRA, cofilin, and thymosin beta 4 which determine actin polymerization and maturation. Integrins and connexins are markedly up-regulated. A key role in this concerted action which leads to a 2-to-20 fold increase in vascular diameter, depending on species size (mouse versus human) are the transcription factors AP-1, egr-1, carp, ets, by the Rho pathway and by the Mitogen Activated Kinases ERK-1 and -2. In spite of the enormous increase in tissue mass (up to 50-fold) the degree of functional restoration of blood flow capacity is incomplete and ends at 30% of maximal conductance (coronary) and 40% in the vascular periphery. The process of arteriogenesis can be drastically stimulated by increases in FSS (arterio-venous fistulas) and can be completely blocked by inhibition of NO production, by pharmacological blockade of VEGF-A and by the inhibition of the Rho-pathway. Pharmacological stimulation of arteriogenesis, important for the treatment of arterial occlusive diseases, seems feasible with NO donors