Interactively modelling land profitability to estimate European agricultural and forest land use under future scenarios of climate, socio-economics and adaptation

Studies of climate change impacts on agricultural land use generally consider sets of climates combined with fixed socio-economic scenarios, making it impossible to compare the impact of specific factors within these scenario sets. Analysis of the impact of specific scenario factors is extremely difficult due to prohibitively long run-times of the complex models. This study produces and combines metamodels of crop and forest yields and farm profit, derived from previously developed very complex models, to enable prediction of European land use under any set of climate and socio-economic data. Land use is predicted based on the profitability of the alternatives on every soil within every 10' grid across the EU. A clustering procedure reduces 23,871 grids with 20+ soils per grid to 6,714 clusters of common soil and climate. Combined these reduce runtime 100 thousand-fold. Profit thresholds define land as intensive agriculture (arable or grassland), extensive agriculture or managed forest, or finally unmanaged forest or abandoned land. The demand for food as a function of population, imports, food preferences and bioenergy, is a production constraint, as is irrigation water available. An iteration adjusts prices to meet these constraints. A range of measures are derived at 10' grid-level such as diversity as well as overall EU production. There are many ways to utilise this ability to do rapidWhat-If analysis of both impact and adaptations. The paper illustrates using two of the 5 different GCMs (CSMK3, HADGEM with contrasting precipitation and temperature) and two of the 4 different socio-economic scenarios ("We are the world", "Should I stay or should I go" which have contrasting demands for land), exploring these using two of the 13 scenario parameters (crop breeding for yield and population) . In the first scenario, population can be increased by a large amount showing that food security is far from vulnerable. In the second scenario increasing crop yield shows that it improves the food security problem

An Integrated Framework for Multiprocessor, Multimoded Real-Time Applications

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-30598-6_2In this paper we propose an approach for building real-time systems under a combination of requirements: specification and handling of operating modes and mode changes; implementation on top of a multiprocessor platform; integration of both aspects within a common framework; and connection with schedulability analysis procedures. The proposed approach uses finite state machines to describe operating modes and transitions, and a framework of real-time utilities that implements the required behaviour in Ada 2012. Automatic code generation plays an important role: the system is derived from the functional and timing specification, and implemented according to the abstractions provided by the framework. Response time analysis enables assessing the schedulability of the different operating modes and the transitions between modes.This work was partially supported by the Vicerrectorado de Investigación of the UPV (PAID-06-10-2397), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (TIN2011-28567-C03- 03) and European Union (FP7-ICT-287702)Sáez Barona, S.; Real Sáez, JV.; Crespo, A. (2012). An Integrated Framework for Multiprocessor, Multimoded Real-Time Applications. En Reliable Software Technologies – Ada-Europe 2012. Springer. 18-34. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-30598-6_21834Wellings, A.J., Burns, A.: A Framework for Real-Time Utilities for Ada 2005. Ada Letters XXVII(2) (August 2007)Real, J., Crespo, A.: Incorporating Operating Modes to an Ada Real-Time Framework. Ada Letters 30(1) (April 2010)Sáez, S., Terrasa, S., Crespo, A.: A Real-Time Framework for Multiprocessor Platforms Using Ada 2012. In: Romanovsky, A., Vardanega, T. (eds.) Ada-Europe 2011. LNCS, vol. 6652, pp. 46–60. Springer, Heidelberg (2011)Joseph, M., Pandya, P.: Finding response times in a real-time system. British Computer Society Computer Journal 29(5), 390–395 (1986)Audsley, N., Burns, A., Richardson, M., Tindell, K., Wellings, A.J.: Applying new scheduling theory to static priority pre-emptive scheduling. Software Engineering Journal 8(5), 284–292 (1993)Real, J., Crespo, A.: Mode Change Protocols for Real-Time Systems: A Survey and a new Proposal. Real-Time Systems 26(2), 161–197 (2004)Harel, D.: Statecharts: A visual formalism for complex systems. The Science of Computer Programming 8(3), 231–274 (1987)Object Management Group: Unified Modeling Language (OMG UML) V2.4 (August 2011), http://www.omg.org/spec/UML/2.4.1Sáez, S., Terrasa, S., Lorente, V., Crespo, A.: Implementing Reactive Systems with UML State Machines and Ada 2005. In: Kordon, F., Kermarrec, Y. (eds.) Ada-Europe 2009. LNCS, vol. 5570, pp. 149–163. Springer, Heidelberg (2009)Burns, A., Wellings, A.J.: Dispatching Domains for Multiprocessor Platforms and their Representation in Ada. In: Real, J., Vardanega, T. (eds.) Ada-Europe 2010. LNCS, vol. 6106, pp. 41–53. Springer, Heidelberg (2010)Barnett, J.: State Chart XML (SCXML): State Machine Notation for Control Abstraction (May 2008), http://www.w3.org/TR/scxml

An architecture for reliable distributed computer-controlled systems

In Distributed Computer-Controlled Systems (DCCS), both real-time and reliability requirements are of major concern. Architectures for DCCS must be designed considering the integration of processing nodes and the underlying communication infrastructure. Such integration must be provided by appropriate software support services. In this paper, an architecture for DCCS is presented, its structure is outlined, and the services provided by the support software are presented. These are considered in order to guarantee the real-time and reliability requirements placed by current and future systems

The Development of Self-Efficacy to Work with Suicidal Clients

Suicide is a public health crisis which counselors must be prepared to address. In this grounded theory study, the researchers advance a model to show how counselors develop self-efficacy to work with suicidal clients. Counselor educators may use this model to improve programmatic training and supervision of students

Peptidergic control in a fruit crop pest: The spotted-wing drosophila, Drosophila suzukii

Neuropeptides play an important role in the regulation of feeding in insects and offer potential targets for the development of new chemicals to control insect pests. A pest that has attracted much recent attention is the highly invasive Drosophila suzukii, a polyphagous pest that can cause serious economic damage to soft fruits. Previously we showed by mass spectrometry the presence of the neuropeptide myosuppressin (TDVDHVFLRFamide) in the nerve bundle suggesting that this peptide is involved in regulating the function of the crop, which in adult dipteran insects has important roles in the processing of food, the storage of carbohydrates and the movement of food into the midgut for digestion. In the present study antibodies that recognise the C-terminal RFamide epitope of myosuppressin stain axons in the crop nerve bundle and reveal peptidergic fibres covering the surface of the crop. We also show using an in vitro bioassay that the neuropeptide is a potent inhibitor (EC50 of 2.3 nM) of crop contractions and that this inhibition is mimicked by the non-peptide myosuppressin agonist, benzethonium chloride (Bztc). Myosuppressin also inhibited the peristaltic contractions of the adult midgut, but was a much weaker agonist (EC50 = 5.7 μM). The oral administration of Bztc (5 mM) in a sucrose diet to adult female D. suzukii over 4 hours resulted in less feeding and longer exposure to dietary Bztc led to early mortality. We therefore suggest that myosuppressin and its cognate receptors are potential targets for disrupting feeding behaviour of adult D. suzukii

Life cycle modelling of environmental impacts of application of processed organic municipal solid waste on agricultural land (EASEWASTE)

A model capable of quantifying the potential environmental impacts of agricultural application of composted or anaerobically digested source-separated organic municipal solid waste (MSW) is presented. In addition to the direct impacts, the model accounts for savings by avoiding the production and use of commercial fertilizers. The model is part of a larger model, Environmental Assessment of Solid Waste Systems and Technology (EASEWASTE), developed as a decisionsupport model, focusing on assessment of alternative waste management options. The environmental impacts of the land application of processed organic waste are quantified by emission coefficients referring to the composition of the processed waste and related to specific crop rotation as well as soil type. The model contains several default parameters based on literature data, field experiments and modelling by the agro-ecosystem model, Daisy. All data can be modified by the user allowing application of the model to other situations. A case study including four scenarios was performed to illustrate the use of the model. One tonne of nitrogen in composted and anaerobically digested MSW was applied as fertilizer to loamy and sandy soil at a plant farm in western Denmark. Application of the processed organic waste mainly affected the environmental impact categories global warming (0.4–0.7 PE), acidification (–0.06 (saving)–1.6 PE), nutrient enrichment (–1.0 (saving)–3.1 PE), and toxicity. The main contributors to these categories were nitrous oxide formation (global warming), ammonia volatilization (acidification and nutrient enrichment), nitrate losses (nutrient enrichment and groundwater contamination), and heavy metal input to soil (toxicity potentials). The local agricultural conditions as well as the composition of the processed MSW showed large influence on the environmental impacts. A range of benefits, mainly related to improved soil quality from long-term application of the processed organic waste, could not be generally quantified with respect to the chosen life cycle assessment impact categories and were therefore not included in the model. These effects should be considered in conjunction with the results of the life cycle assessment

Peer reviewers in 2017

Pockmarks are seabed depressions that represent primary evidence of rapid biogenic/thermogenic gas build up and fluid release from seabed sediments to the water column. We use a Geographical Information System (GIS) to analyse multibeam echo-sounder bathymetric data and use a range of semi-automated tools to map seabed pockmarks in fjords and adjacent coastal waters around western Scotland. We map 1019 individual pockmarks in 12 different hydrographic areas covering ca. 2019 km2. We use morphological metrics and statistical procedures to classify and analyse the variety of pockmark forms. A k-means clustering algorithm identifies three classes of pockmark morphology: deep, elongate and regular. The recognition of separate pockmark classes could aid understanding of their age, activity and origin. This work presents the first detailed mapping of pockmark fields in Scottish west coast waters and highlights the use of pockmarks as an indicator of the quantity, mobility and fate of stored carbon

A Globally Arbitrated Memory Tree for Mixed-Time-Criticality Systems

Embedded systems are increasingly based on multi-core platforms to accommodate a growing number of applications, some of which have real-time requirements. Resources, such as off-chip DRAM, are typically shared between the applications using memory interconnects with different arbitration polices to cater to diverse bandwidth and latency requirements. However, traditional centralized interconnects are not scalable as the number of clients increase. Similarly, current distributed interconnects either cannot satisfy the diverse requirements or have decoupled arbitration stages, resulting in larger area, power and worst-case latency. The four main contributions of this article are: 1) a Globally Arbitrated Memory Tree (GAMT) with a distributed architecture that scales well with the number of cores, 2) an RTL-level implementation that can be configured with five arbitration policies (three distinct and two as special cases), 3) the concept of mixed arbitration policies that allows the policy to be selected individually per core, and 4) a worst-case analysis for a mixed arbitration policy that combines TDM and FBSP arbitration.We compare the performance of GAMT with centralized implementations and show that it can run up to four times faster and have over 51 and 37 percent reduction in area and power consumption, respectively, for a given bandwidth

Optimizing Performance of Continuous-Time Stochastic Systems using Timeout Synthesis

We consider parametric version of fixed-delay continuous-time Markov chains (or equivalently deterministic and stochastic Petri nets, DSPN) where fixed-delay transitions are specified by parameters, rather than concrete values. Our goal is to synthesize values of these parameters that, for a given cost function, minimise expected total cost incurred before reaching a given set of target states. We show that under mild assumptions, optimal values of parameters can be effectively approximated using translation to a Markov decision process (MDP) whose actions correspond to discretized values of these parameters

Evaluation of chemical strategies for improving the stability and oral toxicity of insecticidal peptides

© 2018 by the authors. Spider venoms are a rich source of insecticidal peptide toxins. Their development as bioinsecticides has, however, been hampered due to concerns about potential lack of stability and oral bioactivity. We therefore systematically evaluated several synthetic strategies to increase the stability and oral potency of the potent insecticidal spider-venom peptide !-HXTX-Hv1a (Hv1a). Selective chemical replacement of disulfide bridges with diselenide bonds and N- to C-terminal cyclization were anticipated to improve Hv1a resistance to proteolytic digestion, and thereby its activity when delivered orally. We found that native Hv1a is orally active in blowflies, but 91-fold less potent than when administered by injection. Introduction of a single diselenide bond had no effect on the susceptibility to scrambling or the oral activity of Hv1a. N- to C-terminal cyclization of the peptide backbone did not significantly improve the potency of Hv1a when injected into blowflies and it led to a significant decrease in oral activity. We show that this is likely due to a dramatically reduced rate of translocation of cyclic Hv1a across the insect midgut, highlighting the importance of testing bioavailability in addition to toxin stability