Should Recall of Previous Votes Be Used to Adjust Estimates of Voting Intention?

Correction of estimates of voting intention using voter recall of previous votes is frequent in electoral polls, particularly in Europe. However, research on the impact of its use is scarce. The results presented in this paper confirm that voting is not a salient, memorable behaviour for all voters. People who always vote the same way and identify with a political party are likely to accurately remember their vote, but in most developed countries, change of allegiance is now common. A substantial portion of the electorate changes its mind between or during campaigns, and switchers seem to have more difficulty remembering how they voted. Recall error is not random. Voters’ misremembering a previous vote to reconcile it with how they currently wish to vote (reconciliation) and, above all, the difficulty in reaching voters for far-right or populist parties/candidates, and in convincing them to reveal their true vote or voting intention are the main explanations for error. Memory failure also plays a role, but the overall impact appears to be weak. Finally, reconciliation and social desirability also play roles when it comes to correcting estimates using recall of past voting, but the overall impact is weak. The results presented here show that, at best, the practice does not have a significant, substantial, impact on estimates. We suggest that researchers and pollsters would do better to focus their energies on tackling the problem itself instead of working on a posteriori correction

ACBP/DBI protein neutralization confers autophagy-dependent organ protection through inhibition of cell loss, inflammation, and fibrosis

Acyl-coenzyme A (CoA)–binding protein (ACBP), also known as diazepam-binding inhibitor (DBI), is an extracellular feedback regulator of autophagy. Here, we report that injection of a monoclonal antibody neutralizing ACBP/DBI (α-DBI) protects the murine liver against ischemia/reperfusion damage, intoxication by acetaminophen and concanavalin A, and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis caused by methionine/choline-deficient diet as well as against liver fibrosis induced by bile duct ligation or carbon tetrachloride. α-DBI downregulated proinflammatory and profibrotic genes and upregulated antioxidant defenses and fatty acid oxidation in the liver. The hepatoprotective effects of α-DBI were mimicked by the induction of ACBP/DBI-specific autoantibodies, an inducible Acbp/Dbi knockout or a constitutive Gabrg2F77I mutation that abolishes ACBP/DBI binding to the GABAA receptor. Liver-protective α-DBI effects were lost when autophagy was pharmacologically blocked or genetically inhibited by knockout of Atg4b. Of note, α-DBI also reduced myocardium infarction and lung fibrosis, supporting the contention that it mediates broad organ-protective effects against multiple insults.We thank the core facilities of Centre de Recherche des Cordeliers and Gustave Roussy for technical support. G.K. is supported by the Ligue contre le Cancer (equipe labellisee); Agence National de la Recherche (ANR) – Projets blancs; AMMICa US23/CNRS UMS3655; Association pour la Recherche sur le Cancer; Association “Ruban Rose”; Cancerop^ole Ile-de-France; Fondation pour la Recherche Medicale (FRM); a donation by Elior; Equipex Onco-Pheno-Screen; European Joint Programme on Rare Diseases; Gustave Roussy Odyssea, the European Union Horizon 2020 Projects Oncobiome and Crimson (No. 101016923); Fondation Carrefour; Institut National du Cancer; Inserm (Heterogeneite des tumeurs dans leur microenvironnement); Institut Universitaire de France; LabEx Immuno-Oncology (ANR-18- IDEX-0001); the Leducq Foundation; a Cancer Research Accelerating Scientific Platforms and Innovative Research Award from the Mark Foundation;, the Recherche Hospitalo-Universitaire Torino Lumiere; Seerave Foundation; SIRIC Stratified Oncology Cell DNA Repair and Tumor Immune Elimination; and SIRIC Cancer Research and Personalized Medicine. This study contributes to the IdEx Universite de Paris ANR-18-IDEX-0001. G.A. is supported by the FRM. L.S. is supported by Beatriz Galindo senior program of the Spanish Ministry of Universities; Strategic Program “Instituto de Biologıa y Genetica Molecular (IBGM), Junta de Castilla y Leon” (Ref. CCVC8485); and Internationalisation Project of the “Unidad de Excelencia IBGM of Valladolid” (Ref. CL-EI-2021)

An obesogenic feedforward loop involving PPARγ, acyl-CoA binding protein and GABAA receptor

Acyl-coenzyme-A-binding protein (ACBP), also known as a diazepam-binding inhibitor (DBI), is a potent stimulator of appetite and lipogenesis. Bioinformatic analyses combined with systematic screens revealed that peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ) is the transcription factor that best explains the ACBP/DBI upregulation in metabolically active organs including the liver and adipose tissue. The PPARγ agonist rosiglitazone-induced ACBP/DBI upregulation, as well as weight gain, that could be prevented by knockout of Acbp/Dbi in mice. Moreover, liver-specific knockdown of Pparg prevented the high-fat diet (HFD)-induced upregulation of circulating ACBP/DBI levels and reduced body weight gain. Conversely, knockout of Acbp/Dbi prevented the HFD-induced upregulation of PPARγ. Notably, a single amino acid substitution (F77I) in the γ2 subunit of gamma-aminobutyric acid A receptor (GABAAR), which abolishes ACBP/DBI binding to this receptor, prevented the HFD-induced weight gain, as well as the HFD-induced upregulation of ACBP/DBI, GABAAR γ2, and PPARγ. Based on these results, we postulate the existence of an obesogenic feedforward loop relying on ACBP/DBI, GABAAR, and PPARγ. Interruption of this vicious cycle, at any level, indistinguishably mitigates HFD-induced weight gain, hepatosteatosis, and hyperglycemia

Serum Metabolome Adaptations Following 12 Weeks of High-Intensity Interval Training or Moderate-Intensity Continuous Training in Obese Older Adults.

peer reviewedPhysical activity can be effective in preventing some of the adverse effects of aging on health. High-intensity interval training (HIIT) and moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT) are beneficial interventions for the quality of life of obese older individuals. The understanding of all possible metabolic mechanisms underlying these beneficial changes has not yet been established. The aim of this study was to analyze changes in the serum metabolome after 12 weeks of HIIT and MICT in obese older adults. Thirty-eight participants performed either HIIT (n = 26) or MICT (n = 12) three times per week for 12 weeks. Serum metabolites as well as clinical and biological parameters were assessed before and after the 12-week intervention. Among the 364 metabolites and ratio of metabolites identified, 51 metabolites changed significantly following the 12-week intervention. Out of them, 21 significantly changed following HIIT intervention and 18 significantly changed following MICT. Associations with clinical and biological adaptations revealed that changes in acyl-alkyl-phosphatidylcholine (PCae) (22:1) correlated positively with changes in handgrip strength in the HIIT group (r = 0.52, p < 0.01). A negative correlation was also observed between 2-oxoglutaric acid and HOMA-IR (r = -0.44, p < 0.01) when considering both groups together (HIIT and MICT). This metabolite also correlated positively with quantitative insulin-sensitivity check index (QUICKI) in both groups together (r = 0.46, p < 0.01) and the HIIT group (r = 0.51, p < 0.01). Additionally, in the MICT group, fumaric acid was positively correlated with triglyceride levels (r = 0.73, p < 0.01) and acetylcarnitine correlated positively with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (r = 0.81, p < 0.01). These four metabolites might represent potential metabolites of interest concerning muscle strength, glycemic parameters, as well as lipid profile parameters, and hence, for a potential healthy aging. Future studies are needed to confirm the association between these metabolites and a healthy aging

Basal Body Positioning Is Controlled by Flagellum Formation in Trypanosoma brucei

To perform their multiple functions, cilia and flagella are precisely positioned at the cell surface by mechanisms that remain poorly understood. The protist Trypanosoma brucei possesses a single flagellum that adheres to the cell body where a specific cytoskeletal structure is localised, the flagellum attachment zone (FAZ). Trypanosomes build a new flagellum whose distal tip is connected to the side of the old flagellum by a discrete structure, the flagella connector. During this process, the basal body of the new flagellum migrates towards the posterior end of the cell. We show that separate inhibition of flagellum assembly, base-to-tip motility or flagella connection leads to reduced basal body migration, demonstrating that the flagellum contributes to its own positioning. We propose a model where pressure applied by movements of the growing new flagellum on the flagella connector leads to a reacting force that in turn contributes to migration of the basal body at the proximal end of the flagellum

Towards comprehensive observing and modeling systems for monitoring and predicting regional to coastal sea level

A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation measures and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our limited capacity to predict SL change at the coast on relevant spatial and temporal scales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on monthly to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of the problem, and review available observing systems informing on coastal SL. We also review the ability of existing models and data assimilation systems to estimate coastal SL variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models and related regional downscaling efforts to project future SL changes. We discuss (1) observational gaps and uncertainties, and priorities for the development of an optimal and integrated coastal SL observing system, (2) strategies for advancing model capabilities in forecasting short-term processes and projecting long-term changes affecting coastal SL, and (3) possible future developments of sea level services enabling better connection of scientists and user communities and facilitating assessment and decision making for adaptation to future coastal SL change.RP was funded by NASA grant NNH16CT00C. CD was supported by the Australian Research Council (FT130101532 and DP 160103130), the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) Working Group 148, funded by national SCOR committees and a grant to SCOR from the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant OCE-1546580), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO/International Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange (IOC/IODE) IQuOD Steering Group. SJ was supported by the Natural Environmental Research Council under Grant Agreement No. NE/P01517/1 and by the EPSRC NEWTON Fund Sustainable Deltas Programme, Grant Number EP/R024537/1. RvdW received funding from NWO, Grant 866.13.001. WH was supported by NASA (NNX17AI63G and NNX17AH25G). CL was supported by NASA Grant NNH16CT01C. This work is a contribution to the PIRATE project funded by CNES (to TP). PT was supported by the NOAA Research Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program through its sponsorship of UHSLC (NA16NMF4320058). JS was supported by EU contract 730030 (call H2020-EO-2016, “CEASELESS”). JW was supported by EU Horizon 2020 Grant 633211, Atlantos

Modulation of Macrophage Activation State Protects Tissue from Necrosis during Critical Limb Ischemia in Thrombospondin-1-Deficient Mice

International audienceBACKGROUND: Macrophages, key regulators of healing/regeneration processes, strongly infiltrate ischemic tissues from patients suffering from critical limb ischemia (CLI). However pro-inflammatory markers correlate with disease progression and risk of amputation, suggesting that modulating macrophage activation state might be beneficial. We previously reported that thrombospondin-1 (TSP-1) is highly expressed in ischemic tissues during CLI in humans. TSP-1 is a matricellular protein that displays well-known angiostatic properties in cancer, and regulates inflammation in vivo and macrophages properties in vitro. We therefore sought to investigate its function in a mouse model of CLI. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a genetic model of tsp-1(-/-) mice subjected to femoral artery excision, we report that tsp-1(-/-) mice were clinically and histologically protected from necrosis compared to controls. Tissue protection was associated with increased postischemic angiogenesis and muscle regeneration. We next showed that macrophages present in ischemic tissues exhibited distinct phenotypes in tsp-1(-/-) and wt mice. A strong reduction of necrotic myofibers phagocytosis was observed in tsp-1(-/-) mice. We next demonstrated that phagocytosis of muscle cell debris is a potent pro-inflammatory signal for macrophages in vitro. Consistently with these findings, macrophages that infiltrated ischemic tissues exhibited a reduced postischemic pro-inflammatory activation state in tsp-1(-/-) mice, characterized by a reduced Ly-6C expression and a less pro-inflammatory cytokine expression profile. Finally, we showed that monocyte depletion reversed clinical and histological protection from necrosis observed in tsp-1(-/-) mice, thereby demonstrating that macrophages mediated tissue protection in these mice. CONCLUSION: This study defines targeting postischemic macrophage activation state as a new potential therapeutic approach to protect tissues from necrosis and promote tissue repair during CLI. Furthermore, our data suggest that phagocytosis plays a crucial role in promoting a deleterious intra-tissular pro-inflammatory macrophage activation state during critical injuries. Finally, our results describe TSP-1 as a new relevant physiological target during critical leg ischemia

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome associated with COVID-19: An Emulated Target Trial Analysis.

RATIONALE: Whether COVID patients may benefit from extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) compared with conventional invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effect of ECMO on 90-Day mortality vs IMV only Methods: Among 4,244 critically ill adult patients with COVID-19 included in a multicenter cohort study, we emulated a target trial comparing the treatment strategies of initiating ECMO vs. no ECMO within 7 days of IMV in patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (PaO2/FiO2 <80 or PaCO2 ≥60 mmHg). We controlled for confounding using a multivariable Cox model based on predefined variables. MAIN RESULTS: 1,235 patients met the full eligibility criteria for the emulated trial, among whom 164 patients initiated ECMO. The ECMO strategy had a higher survival probability at Day-7 from the onset of eligibility criteria (87% vs 83%, risk difference: 4%, 95% CI 0;9%) which decreased during follow-up (survival at Day-90: 63% vs 65%, risk difference: -2%, 95% CI -10;5%). However, ECMO was associated with higher survival when performed in high-volume ECMO centers or in regions where a specific ECMO network organization was set up to handle high demand, and when initiated within the first 4 days of MV and in profoundly hypoxemic patients. CONCLUSIONS: In an emulated trial based on a nationwide COVID-19 cohort, we found differential survival over time of an ECMO compared with a no-ECMO strategy. However, ECMO was consistently associated with better outcomes when performed in high-volume centers and in regions with ECMO capacities specifically organized to handle high demand. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

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