Development and validation of a new clinical decision support tool to optimize screening for retinopathy of prematurity

Background/Aims Prematurely born infants undergo costly, stressful eye examinations to uncover the small fraction with retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) that needs treatment to prevent blindness. The aim was to develop a prediction tool (DIGIROP-Screen) with 100% sensitivity and high specificity to safely reduce screening of those infants not needing treatment. DIGIROP-Screen was compared with four other ROP models based on longitudinal weights. Methods Data, including infants born at 24–30 weeks of gestational age (GA), for DIGIROP-Screen development (DevGroup, N=6991) originate from the Swedish National Registry for ROP. Three international cohorts comprised the external validation groups (ValGroups, N=1241). Multivariable logistic regressions, over postnatal ages (PNAs) 6–14 weeks, were validated. Predictors were birth characteristics, status and age at first diagnosed ROP and essential interactions. Results ROP treatment was required in 287 (4.1%)/6991 infants in DevGroup and 49 (3.9%)/1241 in ValGroups. To allow 100% sensitivity in DevGroup, specificity at birth was 53.1% and cumulatively 60.5% at PNA 8 weeks. Applying the same cut-offs in ValGroups, specificities were similar (46.3% and 53.5%). One infant with severe malformations in ValGroups was incorrectly classified as not needing screening. For all other infants, at PNA 6–14 weeks, sensitivity was 100%. In other published models, sensitivity ranged from 88.5% to 100% and specificity ranged from 9.6% to 45.2%. Conclusions DIGIROP-Screen, a clinical decision support tool using readily available birth and ROP screening data for infants born GA 24–30 weeks, in the European and North American populations tested can safely identify infants not needing ROP screening. DIGIROP-Screen had equal or higher sensitivity and specificity compared with other models. DIGIROP-Screen should be tested in any new cohort for validation and if not validated it can be modified using the same statistical approaches applied to a specific clinical setting

Investigation of first ray mobility during gait by kinematic fluoroscopic imaging-a novel method

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is often suggested that sagittal instability at the first tarso-metatarsal joint level is a primary factor for hallux valgus and that sagittal instability increases with the progression of the deformity. The assessment of the degree of vertical instability is usually made by clinical evaluation while any measurements mostly refer to a static assessment of medial ray mobility (i.e. the plantar/dorsal flexion in the sagittal plane). Testing methods currently available cannot attribute the degree of mobility to the corresponding anatomical joints making up the medial column of the foot. The aim of this study was to develop a technique which allows for a quantification of the in-vivo sagittal mobility of the joints of the medial foot column during the roll-over process under full weight bearing.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Mobility of first ray bones was investigated by dynamic distortion-free fluoroscopy (25 frames/s) of 14 healthy volunteers and 8 patients with manifested clinical instability of the first ray. A CAD-based evaluation method allowed the determination of mobility and relative displacements and rotations of the first ray bones within the sagittal plane during the stance phase of gait.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Total flexion of the first ray was found to be 13.63 (SD 6.14) mm with the healthy volunteers and 13.06 (SD 8.01) mm with the patients (resolution: 0.245 mm/pixel). The dorsiflexion angle was 5.27 (SD 2.34) degrees in the healthy volunteers and increased to 5.56 (SD 3.37) degrees in the patients. Maximum rotations were found at the naviculo-cuneiform joints and least at the first tarso-metatarsal joint level in both groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Dynamic fluoroscopic assessment has been shown to be a valuable tool for characterisation of the kinematics of the joints of the medial foot column during gait.</p> <p>A significant difference in first ray flexion and angular rotation between the patients and healthy volunteers however could not be found.</p

Projected Lifetime Healthcare Costs Associated with HIV Infection.

OBJECTIVE: Estimates of healthcare costs associated with HIV infection would provide valuable insight for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of possible prevention interventions. We evaluate the additional lifetime healthcare cost incurred due to living with HIV. METHODS: We used a stochastic computer simulation model to project the distribution of lifetime outcomes and costs of men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) infected with HIV in 2013 aged 30, over 10,000 simulations. We assumed a resource-rich setting with no loss to follow-up, and that standards and costs of healthcare management remain as now. RESULTS: Based on a median (interquartile range) life expectancy of 71.5 (45.0-81.5) years for MSM in such a setting, the estimated mean lifetime cost of treating one person was £ 360,800 ($567,000 or € 480,000). With 3.5$291,000 or € 246,000). The largest proportion (68%) of these costs was attributed to antiretroviral drugs. If patented drugs are replaced by generic versions (at 20% cost of patented prices), estimated mean lifetime costs reduced to £ 179,000 ($281,000 or € 238,000) and £ 101,200 ($ 158,900 or € 134,600) discounted. CONCLUSIONS: If 3,000 MSM had been infected in 2013, then future lifetime costs relating to HIV care is likely to be in excess of £ 1 billion. It is imperative for investment into prevention programmes to be continued or scaled-up in settings with good access to HIV care services. Costs would be reduced considerably with use of generic antiretroviral drugs

First narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars in advanced detector data

Spinning neutron stars asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis are potential sources of continuous gravitational waves for ground-based interferometric detectors. In the case of known pulsars a fully coherent search, based on matched filtering, which uses the position and rotational parameters obtained from electromagnetic observations, can be carried out. Matched filtering maximizes the signalto- noise (SNR) ratio, but a large sensitivity loss is expected in case of even a very small mismatch between the assumed and the true signal parameters. For this reason, narrow-band analysis methods have been developed, allowing a fully coherent search for gravitational waves from known pulsars over a fraction of a hertz and several spin-down values. In this paper we describe a narrow-band search of 11 pulsars using data from Advanced LIGO’s first observing run. Although we have found several initial outliers, further studies show no significant evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave signal. Finally, we have placed upper limits on the signal strain amplitude lower than the spin-down limit for 5 of the 11 targets over the bands searched; in the case of J1813-1749 the spin-down limit has been beaten for the first time. For an additional 3 targets, the median upper limit across the search bands is below the spin-down limit. This is the most sensitive narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves carried out so far

Controversies in the management of advanced prostate cancer

For advanced prostate cancer, the main hormone treatment against which other treatments are assessed is surgical castration. It is simple, safe and effective, however it is not acceptable to all patients. Medical castration by means of luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LH-RH) analogues such as goserelin acetate provides an alternative to surgical castration. Diethylstilboestrol, previously the only non-surgical alternative to orchidectomy, is no longer routinely used. Castration reduces serum testosterone by around 90%, but does not affect androgen biosynthesis in the adrenal glands. Addition of an anti-androgen to medical or surgical castration blocks the effect of remaining testosterone on prostate cells and is termed combined androgen blockade (CAB). CAB has now been compared with castration alone (medical and surgical) in numerous clinical trials. Some trials show advantage of CAB over castration, whereas others report no significant difference. The author favours the view that CAB has an advantage over castration. No study has reported that CAB is less effective than castration. Of the anti-androgens which are available for use in CAB, bicalutamide may be associated with a lower incidence of side-effects compared with the other non-steroidal anti-androgens and, in common with nilutamide, has the advantage of once-daily dosing. Only one study has compared anti-androgens within CAB: bicalutamide plus LH-RH analogue and flutamide plus LH-RH analogue. At 160-week follow-up, the groups were equivalent in terms of survival and time to progression. However, bicalutamide caused significantly less diarrhoea than flutamide. Withdrawal and intermittent therapy with anti-androgens extend the range of treatment options. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

The equilibria that allow bacterial persistence in human hosts

We propose that microbes that have developed persistent relationships with human hosts have evolved cross-signalling mechanisms that permit homeostasis that conforms to Nash equilibria and, more specifically, to evolutionarily stable strategies. This implies that a group of highly diverse organisms has evolved within the changing contexts of variation in effective human population size and lifespan, shaping the equilibria achieved, and creating relationships resembling climax communities. We propose that such ecosystems contain nested communities in which equilibrium at one level contributes to homeostasis at another. The model can aid prediction of equilibrium states in the context of further change: widespread immunodeficiency, changing population densities, or extinctions.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62883/1/nature06198.pd

Feasibility and effectiveness of indicator condition-guided testing for HIV: results from HIDES I (HIV indicator diseases across Europe study)

Improved methods for targeting HIV testing among patients most likely to be infected are required; HIDES I aimed to define the methodology of a European wide study of HIV prevalence in individuals presenting with one of eight indicator conditions/diseases (ID); sexually transmitted infection, lymphoma, cervical or anal cancer/dysplasia, herpes zoster, hepatitis B/C, mononucleosis-like illness, unexplained leukocytopenia/thrombocytopenia and seborrheic dermatitis/exanthema, and to identify those with an HIV prevalence of >0.1%, a level determined to be cost effective. A staff questionnaire was performed. From October 2009- February 2011, individuals, not known to be HIV positive, presenting with one of the ID were offered an HIV test; additional information was collected on previous HIV testing behaviour and recent medical history. A total of 3588 individuals from 16 centres were included. Sixty-six tested positive for HIV, giving an HIV prevalence of 1.8% [95% CI: 1.42-2.34]; all eight ID exceeded 0.1% prevalence. Of those testing HIV positive, 83% were male, 58% identified as MSM and 9% were injecting drug users. Twenty percent reported previously having potentially HIV-related symptoms and 52% had previously tested HIV negative (median time since last test: 1.58 years); which together with the median CD4 count at diagnosis (400 cell/uL) adds weight to this strategy being effective in diagnosing HIV at an earlier stage. A positive test was more likely for non-white individuals, MSM, injecting drug users and those testing in non-Northern regions. HIDES I describes an effective strategy to detect undiagnosed HIV infection. All eight ID fulfilled the >0.1% criterion for cost effectiveness. All individuals presenting to any health care setting with one of these ID should be strongly recommended an HIV test. A strategy is being developed in collaboration with ECDC and WHO Europe to guide the implementation of this novel public health initiative across Europe