Modeling the Effects of Environmental Impacts and Accessibility on Real Estate Prices in Industrial Cities

n/

Hacia un diseño eficiente de sistemas de transporte público en áreas urbanas

Trabajo presentado en:III Congreso de Ingeniería Civil, Territorio Y Medio Ambiente “Agua, Biodiversidad e Ingeniería”, Zaragoza, 25-27 de octubre de 2006Hoy día, la generación de un sistema de transporte eficiente es un problema de gran relevancia en el desarrollo urbano. La importancia del tema se basa en que distintos modos de transporte conllevan diferentes resultados en cuanto a nivel de servicio percibido por los usuarios, así como del coste de funcionamiento del sistema. De esta manera, estas diversidades conducen a diversos niveles de bienestar social. Por ello, el desarrollo de metodologías que permitan obtener y adaptar dinámicamente el sistema de transporte público de acuerdo a los cambios que experimenta una urbe es un problema primario para los planificadores del transporte. El objetivo de este artículo es analizar las variables que influyen en el problema de diseño de redes eficientes de transporte público urbano y estudiar las relaciones que existen entre la oferta de transporte público y la demanda de viaje, y resaltar la importancia del transporte público como instrumento para un desarrollo sostenible. Las conclusiones que se sacan son que un diseño eficiente de las redes hace que el transporte público sea más atractivo, y se pueden obtener beneficios económicos y sociales relevantes a un coste admisible, optimizando unas variables de diseño de las redes de transporte público urbano

MODELLING PERCEIVED QUALITY FOR URBAN TRANSPORT SYSTEMS USING WEIGHTED VARIABLES AND RANDOM PARAMETERS

[EN] In this article, an Ordered Logit model is proposed considering systematic and random variations in tastes. The methodology followed for the creation of this model consisted, in first place, in obtaining data using a revelled preferences survey. In the survey, each user had to evaluate, following a qualitative scale, each one of the attributes of the analysed transport system. The variables evaluated in the survey had been grouped into six groups, and for each group, users had to order the attributes belonging to the group, using a ranking based method, from the most important to de least important, and, in the same way, with the groups itself. Once the database is formed, a generic model have been created, establishing this model as a comparative base for the rest. Next, two more models have been estimated one considering systematic users variations and the other one combining the systematic variations with weighted variables. Additionally, three new models have been calculated as an evolution of the previous ones using random variables as representation of systematic and random variations in user’s tastes. The results shows that as model’s complexity increase, an improvement in model fit is achieved.Echaniz Beneitez, E.; Dell'olio, L.; Ibeas Portilla, A. (2016). MODELLING PERCEIVED QUALITY FOR URBAN TRANSPORT SYSTEMS USING WEIGHTED VARIABLES AND RANDOM PARAMETERS. En XII Congreso de ingeniería del transporte. 7, 8 y 9 de Junio, Valencia (España). Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 955-974. https://doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2015.4072OCS95597

Demand prediction model for regional railway services considering spatial effects between stations

[EN] The railways are a priority transport mode for the European Union given their safety record and environmental sustainability. Therefore it is important to have quantitative models available which allow passenger demand for rail travel to be simulated for planning purposes and to evaluate different policies. The aim of this article is to specify and estimate trip distribution models between railway stations by considering the most influential demand variables. Two types of models were estimated: Poisson regression and gravity. The input data were the ticket sales on a regional line in Cantabria (Spain) which were provided by the Spanish railway infrastructure administrator (ADIF – RAM). The models have also considered the possible existence of spatial effects between train stations. The results show that the models have a good fit to the available data, especial the gravity models constrained by origins and destinations. Furthermore, the gravity models which considered the existence of spatial effects between stations had a significantly better fit than the Poisson models and the gravity models that did not consider this phenomenon. The proposed models have therefore been shown to be good support tools for decision making in the field of railway planning.Cordera Piñera, R.; Sañudo, R.; Dell'olio, L.; Ibeas, Á. (2016). Demand prediction model for regional railway services considering spatial effects between stations. En XII Congreso de ingeniería del transporte. 7, 8 y 9 de Junio, Valencia (España). Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 1110-1122. https://doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2015.4053OCS1110112

Effects of economic recession on road safety indexes

XII Conference on Transport Engineering, CIT 2016, 7-9 june 2016, Valencia, SpainDuring the last years, the investment in both construction and conservation of transport infrastructures has been considerably reduced in several countries, as Spain. After a number of years in which economic circumstances have forced Governments to reduce budgets earmarked for the maintenance and creation of new ways, it is interesting to analyze whether this has taken a toll on accident rates. The paper evaluates if there are significant changes in the road safety through these years in Spain, comparing the annual statistics concerning investment in infrastructure and accidents. Thus, the classical risk, mortality and severity indexes have been analyzed to understand their real trends. Finally, through linear regression techniques, it is shown how these trends are related to the budgets invested each year, in order to draw interesting conclusions about the effect of their reduction

Impact of a lower conservation budget on road safety indices

Over the past few years, several countries, including Spain, have been experiencing a period of economic recession. As a result, these governments have reduced their budgets for transport infrastructures (both construction and maintenance operations). The main objective of this study is to analyze whether these budget reductions have an effect on increased accident rates and to perform an assessment of their real economic benefit. Thus, we analyze whether significant changes over recent years are perceptible in the road safety indexes in Spain, in terms of risk, accident fatality, and accident severity. The relation between lower budgets and higher road safety indices is analyzed through linear regression techniques. The results show a strong relation between the Risk Index and the maintenance budget, measured as an average of the last years. In addition, a final economic assessment demonstrates that this reduction in investment had no real economic benefits, especially as the costs of the accidents exceeded the savings in the conservation plans

IMPACTOS DE LA ACCESIBILIDAD MEDIANTE TRANSPORTE PÚBLICO EN LOS VALORES INMOBILIARIOS: UNA COMPARACIÓN ENTRE LAS CIUDADES DE ROMA Y SANTANDER

[ES] Existe evidencia empírica que avala la hipótesis de que incrementos en la accesibilidad a oportunidades pueden impactar positivamente en los valores inmobiliarios. Sin embargo, esta capitalización de los beneficios de la accesibilidad puede ser desigual en distintas áreas de estudio. En esta investigación se estiman modelos hedónicos y modelos hedónicos espaciales en dos áreas urbanas para comparar si existen diferencias en los impactos de la accesibilidad utilizando transporte público. Las dos áreas de estudio seleccionadas han sido una ciudad media sin grandes problemas de movilidad (Santander, España) y una gran ciudad con elevados problemas de congestión (Roma, Italia). Los modelos hedónicos estimados han considerado la posible existencia de efectos espaciales, habitualmente presentes en los datos inmobiliarios, que pueden generar dependencia en los residuos de los modelos hedónicos. La accesibilidad se ha medido utilizando dos tipos de indicadores: de accesibilidad relativa y gravitatoria. Los resultados permiten afirmar que la accesibilidad fue un factor positivo en el precio de los valores inmobiliarios de ambas ciudades, si bien en el caso de Santander únicamente de forma relativa al centro urbano. Estos resultados son relevantes de cara a implementar políticas de captura del valor que permitan financiar nuevos proyectos de transporte público.Cordera Piñera, R.; Coppola, P.; Dell'olio, L.; Ibeas, A. (2016). IMPACTOS DE LA ACCESIBILIDAD MEDIANTE TRANSPORTE PÚBLICO EN LOS VALORES INMOBILIARIOS: UNA COMPARACIÓN ENTRE LAS CIUDADES DE ROMA Y SANTANDER. En XII Congreso de ingeniería del transporte. 7, 8 y 9 de Junio, Valencia (España). Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 2315-2332. https://doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2015.4065OCS2315233

Modelling gender perception of quality in interurban bus services

This paper models how women and men perceive the quality of interurban bus services and proposes a new methodology for detecting the highest priority service variables to act on. Service quality perception was modelled using both ordered logit and ordered probit models using data from revealed preference surveys. The methodology for detecting different priority levels uses the graphic representation of the relationships between influence in the model and average evaluation by users. The modification of certain variables increases the knowledge of how woman evaluate quality in bus services to help promote the use of interurban public transport. Statistical analysis of the data provides some conclusions such as: the proportion of users increases as age decreases for both men and women; and women seem to make shorter and more frequent trips than men. The best model for this data set was ordered logit. As expected, the most relevant variable is the relationship between quality and price. Other important variables are the condition of the bus and the frequency of service

R-CVP versus R-CHOP versus R-FM for the initial treatment of patients with advanced-stage follicular lmphoma: results of the FOLL05 trial conducted by the Fondazione Italiana Linfomi

PURPOSE Although rituximab (R) is commonly used for patients with advanced follicular lymphoma (FL) requiring treatment, the optimal associated chemotherapy regimen has yet to be clarified. PATIENTS AND METHODS We conducted an open-label, multicenter, randomized trial among adult patients with previously untreated stages II to IV FL to compare efficacy of eight doses of R associated with eight cycles of cyclophosphamide, vincristine, and prednisone (CVP) or six cycles of cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (CHOP) or six cycles of fludarabine and mitoxantrone (FM). The principal end point of the study was time to treatment failure (TTF). Results There were 534 patients enrolled onto the study. Overall response rates were 88%, 93%, and 91% for R-CVP, R-CHOP, and R-FM, respectively (P=.247). After a median follow-up of 34 months, 3-year TTFs were 46%, 62%, and 59% for the respective treatment groups (R-CHOP v R-CVP, P=.003; R-FM v R-CVP, P=.006; R-FM v R-CHOP, P=.763). Three-year progression-free survival (PFS) rates were 52%, 68%, and 63% (overall P=.011), respectively, and 3-year overall survival was 95% for the whole series. R-FM resulted in higher rates of grade 3 to 4 neutropenia (64%) compared with R-CVP (28%) and R-CHOP (50%; P< .001). Overall, 23 second malignancies were registered during follow-up: four in R-CVP, five in R-CHOP, and 14 in R-FM. CONCLUSION In this study, R-CHOP and R-FM were superior to R-CVP in terms of 3-year TTF and PFS. In addition, R-CHOP had a better risk-benefit ratio compared with R-FM

Demand for environmentally friendly vehicles: A review and new evidence

Although the need for more environmentally friendly vehicles was recognized some decades ago, this new market has not yet established itself. Consumer behavior needs to be studied to ascertain when people will decide to purchase hybrid or electric vehicles rather than conventional ones. An in-depth review of the state-of-the-art has identified existing deficiencies and these are addressed in this paper, proposing a new approach that is applied to the case of Santander in Spain. Emphasis is placed on the role of citizens in researching the local market and their requirements with respect to such vehicles; our model assumes variability in user preferences, an utmost requirement as concluded from the literature review. Results suggest that the highest demand for cleaner vehicles would be achieved in two ways: firstly, by penalizing conventional vehicles in terms of costs/km; secondly, by providing incentives directed at lowering the purchasing price of hybrid and electric vehicles. Finally, as demand becomes more elastic, the preferred strategy should initially focus on hybrid vehicles