Role of Indigenous and local knowledge in seasonal forecasts and climate adaptation: A case study of smallholder farmers in Chiredzi, Zimbabwe

Accessible, reliable and diverse sources of climate information are needed to inform climate change adaptation at all levels of society, particularly for vulnerable sectors such as smallholder farming. Globally, many smallholder farmers use Indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge (LK) to forecast weather and climate; however, less is known about how the use of these forecasts connects to decisions and actions for reducing climate risks. We examined the role of IK and LK in seasonal forecasting and the broader climate adaptation decision-making of smallholder farmers in Chiredzi, Zimbabwe. The data were collected from a sample of 100 smallholder farmers. Seventy-three of the 100 interviewed farmers used IK and LK weather and climate forecasts, and 32% relied solely on IK and LK forecasts for climate adaptation decision-making. Observations of cuckoo birds, leafsprouting of Mopane trees, high summer temperatures, and Nimbus clouds are the main indicators used for IK and LK forecasts. The use of IK and LK climate forecasts was significantly positively associated with increasing farmer age and farmland size

Climate change in South Africa: Risks and opportunities for climate-resilient development in the IPCC Sixth Assessment WGII Report

South Africa is wrestling with increasing climate change impacts and how to respond. The 2022 IPCC Working Group II Report synthesises the latest evidence on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and what this means for climate-resilient development. In this commentary, South African authors on the Report reflect on its key findings and the implications for the country. The commentary highlights challenges and opportunities for cities, the food-water-energy-nature nexus, knowledge and capacity strengthening (which includes climate services, climate change literacy, and indigenous and local knowledge), climate finance, equity, justice and social protection, and climate-resilient development pathways. The piece closes with a reflection on research gaps requiring attention and the importance of urgently ramping up climate action to secure a liveable future for all South Africans

The role of indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in water sector adaptation to climate change in Africa: a structured assessment

Evidence is increasing of human responses to the impacts of climate change in Africa. However, understanding of the effectiveness of these responses for adaptation to climate change across the diversity of African contexts is still limited. Despite high reliance on indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge (LK) for climate adaptation by African communities, potential of IK and LK to contribute to adaptation through reducing climate risk or supporting transformative adaptation responses is yet to be established. Here, we assess the influence of IK and LK for the implementation of water sector adaptation responses in Africa to better understand the relationship between responses to climate change and indigenous and local knowledge systems. Eighteen (18) water adaptation response types were identified from the academic literature through the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) and intended nationally determined contributions (iNDCs) for selected African countries. Southern, West, and East Africa show relatively high evidence of the influence of IK and LK on the implementation of water adaptation responses, while North and Central Africa show lower evidence. At country level, Zimbabwe displays the highest evidence (77.8%) followed by Ghana (53.6%), Kenya (46.2%), and South Africa (31.3%). Irrigation, rainwater harvesting, water conservation, and ecosystem-based measures, mainly agroforestry, were the most implemented measures across Africa. These were mainly household and individual measures influenced by local and indigenous knowledge. Adaptation responses with IK and LK influence recorded higher evidence of risk reduction compared to responses without IK and LK. Analysis of iNDCs shows the most implemented water adaptation actions in academic literature are consistent with water sector adaptation targets set by most African governments. Yet only 10.4% of the African governments included IK and LK in adaptation planning in the iNDCs. This study recommends a coordinated approach to adaptation that integrates multiple knowledge sources, including IK and LK, to ensure sustainability of both current and potential water adaptation measures in Africa

Deforestation rate and causes in Upper Manyame Sub-Catchment, Zimbabwe: Implications on achieving national climate change mitigation targets

The signing of the Paris Agreement at the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 repositioned the global agenda toward sustainable forest management to address the threats of global warming. However, deforestation rates in many parts of the world continue to accelerate. The study evaluates the rate and causes of deforestation in Upper Manyame Sub-Catchment (UMSC) due to land use land cover (LULC) changes between 1990 and 2020. Landsat imagery analysis augmented by household questionnaire survey and key stakeholder interviews were used to assess the rate and cause of deforestation in UMSC. Over the 30 years, the sub-catchment lost 9.4% of its vegetation area due to land use changes. Vegetation loss was mainly due to urban expansion of Harare and its dormitory towns and the extensive peri‑urban agriculture mainly tobacco harvesting. Using the Markov Chain Cellular Automata model, the study estimated that in 2030 the catchment will lose approximately 3.3% of the current vegetation land cover area. This means a further reduction of the vegetation area from 20.1% to 16.8% in 2030. There is need for harmonisation of infrastructure development in Harare and the peri‑urban farming activities with policies that conserve forests such as the use of charcoal and eucalyptus plantations for curing tobacco instead of indigenous trees. This is critical if Zimbabwe is to meet its climate change mitigation targets in the Nationally Determined Contribution that promotes the implementation of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+)

Climate change in South Africa: Risks and opportunities for climate-resilient development in the IPCC Sixth Assessment WGII Report

South Africa is wrestling with increasing climate change impacts and how to respond. The 2022 IPCC Working Group II Report synthesises the latest evidence on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and what this means for climate-resilient development. In this commentary, South African authors on the Report reflect on its key findings and the implications for the country. The commentary highlights challenges and opportunities for cities, the food-water-energy-nature nexus, knowledge and capacity strengthening (which includes climate services, climate change literacy, and indigenous and local knowledge), climate finance, equity, justice and social protection, and climate-resilient development pathways. The piece closes with a reflection on research gaps requiring attention and the importance of urgently ramping up climate action to secure a liveable future for all South Africans

A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change

Assessing global progress on human adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority. Although the literature on adaptation to climate change is rapidly expanding, little is known about the actual extent of implementation. We systematically screened >48,000 articles using machine learning methods and a global network of 126 researchers. Our synthesis of the resulting 1,682 articles presents a systematic and comprehensive global stocktake of implemented human adaptation to climate change. Documented adaptations were largely fragmented, local and incremental, with limited evidence of transformational adaptation and negligible evidence of risk reduction outcomes. We identify eight priorities for global adaptation research: assess the effectiveness of adaptation responses, enhance the understanding of limits to adaptation, enable individuals and civil society to adapt, include missing places, scholars and scholarship, understand private sector responses, improve methods for synthesizing different forms of evidence, assess the adaptation at different temperature thresholds, and improve the inclusion of timescale and the dynamics of responses