11-2001 Newsletter

Minnesota State University, Mankato, Library Services Newsletter for November 2001

Landscape Structures Affect Risk of Canine Distemper in Urban Wildlife

Urbanization rapidly changes landscape structure worldwide, thereby enlarging the human-wildlife interface. The emerging urban structures should have a key influence on the spread and distribution of wildlife diseases such as canine distemper, by shaping density, distribution and movements of wildlife. However, little is known about the role of urban structures as proxies for disease prevalence. To guide management, especially in densely populated cities, assessing the role of landscape structures in hampering or promoting disease prevalence is thus of paramount importance. Between 2008 and 2013, two epidemic waves of canine distemper hit the urban red fox (Vulpes vulpes) population of Berlin, Germany. The directly transmitted canine distemper virus (CDV) causes a virulent disease infecting a range of mammals with high host mortality, particularly in juveniles. We extracted information about CDV serological state (seropositive or seronegative), sex and age for 778 urban fox carcasses collected by the state laboratory Berlin Brandenburg. To assess the impact of urban landscape structure heterogeneity (e.g., richness) and shares of green and gray infrastructures at different spatial resolutions (areal of 28 ha, 78 ha, 314 ha) on seroprevalence we used Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models with binomial distributions. Our results indicated that predictors derived at a 28 ha resolution were most informative for describing landscape structure effects (AUC = 0.92). The probability to be seropositive decreased by 66% (0.6 to 0.2) with an increasing share of gray infrastructure (40 to 80%), suggesting that urbanization might hamper CDV spread in urban areas, owing to a decrease in host density (e.g., less foxes or raccoons) or an absence of wildlife movement corridors in strongly urbanized areas. However, less strongly transformed patches such as close-to-nature areas in direct proximity to water bodies were identified as high risk areas for CDV transmission. Therefore, surveillance and disease control actions targeting urban wildlife or human-wildlife interactions should focus on such areas. The possible underlying mechanisms explaining the prevalence distribution may be increased isolation, the absence of alternative hosts or an abiotic environment, all impairing the ability of CDV to persist without a host

Population dynamics and conservation of elusive species : recolonization of the French Alps by the wolf

En Europe, la présence de grands carnivores dans des paysages anthropisés entraîne une forte compétition avec l'homme et alimente d'importantes polémiques concernant leur protection légale. La perception antagoniste de ces espèces à la fois emblématiques pour certains et sources de conflits pour d'autres, rend la gestion de leurs populations très délicate. Depuis la recolonisation spontanée du loup (Canis lupus) dans les Alpes françaises au début des années 1990, la population s'est accrue numériquement et spatialement. Parallèlement, les dégâts occasionnés par le loup sur la filière élevage ont suivi la même tendance. L'Etat met en place aujourd'hui un contrôle raisonné de la population, sous réserve que les objectifs de conservation, exigés par la Directive Habitat, soient respectés. En s'inspirant du cas d'étude du loup en France, nous proposons dans cette thèse un cadre de prise de décision structurée adapté pour la gestion et la conservation d'espèces rares et difficilement observables, protégées par des accords législatifs mais qui, dans un contexte social conflictuel, peuvent être régulées. La modélisation séquentielle du processus décisionnel s'est déroulée dans un contexte de forte incertitude selon plusieurs étapes : 1) appréhender les objectifs de conservation et/ou contrôle du loup en France pour les formaliser sous forme mathématique via une fonction d'utilité, 2) suivre la population par une méthode non-invasive pour définir des indicateurs de gestion fiables et évaluer le statut de conservation de la population, 3) coupler les mesures létales adoptées actuellement à un modèle démographique décrivant la dynamique du loup et intégrant sa structure sociale, 4) et déterminer la décision. Cette dernière étape est réalisée à l'aide d'une méthode d'optimisation qui calcule la stratégie optimale de gestion en fonction de la structure sociale de la population et des différentes sources d'incertitude accumulées à chaque étape du processus décisionnel. Nous avons choisi comme indicateur de gestion le taux de croissance, à partir duquel nous avons défini l'utilité. Cet indicateur était robuste à l'incertitude d'échantillonnage émergeant de la détection partielle et hétérogène des individus. Des analyses de sensibilité de la décision ont montré une forte influence de la fonction d'utilité sur la stratégie optimale, soulignant ainsi l'importance de définir correctement les objectifs. Nous avons également montré que la stratégie optimale était sensible aux variations des paramètres démographiques, montrant ainsi l'intérêt des méthodes de capture-marquage-recapture pour les estimer correctement. Nous discutons enfin de l'extension de notre approche à un cadre décisionnel de gestion adaptative pour traiter des problèmes de conservation dans un contexte conflictuel.Large carnivore management in Europe is controversial because of conflictive objectives arising from the legal protection of threatened species vs. the possible necessity of culling individuals to prevent severe damages on human activities. Since the wolf recovery in the French Alps in the early 90's, the population has been numerically and spatially increasing. In parallel, livestock depredations have been following the same trend. As an EU member state, France is bound to the European Habitat Directive, which provides full protection of wolf populations and their habitat. Nevertheless, derogatory killings are allowed for individuals causing problems on livestock and some lethal control is now incorporated into the national management plan, as long as the population growth and its distribution range are not being threatened. Illustrating with the case study of the wolf in France, my dissertation proposes a structured decision making framework for the management and the conservation of elusive species that are legally protected but, in a conflictive context, are subject to population control. The sequential modeling of our decision process occurred in the following steps: 1) define the multiple objectives and formulate them in terms of a utility function, 2) monitor the population through a non-invasive approach in order to define the population conservation status, 3) build a demographic model to predict the consequences of harvesting on population dynamics and social structure, 4) obtain optimal state-dependent decisions. The last step is done with stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), acknowledged to be one of the most useful optimization methods in decision making. We provide an optimal solution for wolf management that gives the highest chance of meeting objectives, defined on population growth rate. This demographic indicator was found to be robust to sampling uncertainty arising from partial and heterogeneous detection of individuals. We ran decision sensibility analyses and found a strong effect of the utility function on the optimal strategy, highlighting the importance of defining explicit objectives. We also found that the optimal strategy was sensitive to demographic parameters, which demonstrate the general need of using solid statistical approaches to estimate them properly. This structured decision making framework can further be extended to adaptive management, acknowledged as being a convenient framework for wildlife management

Spatiotemporal risk forecasting to improve locust management

We wish to thank the participants of the Symposium on ‘Forecasting Locust Risks’, organized by C. Piou during the 13th International Conference of Orthopterology, in Agadir in March 2019: Ted Deveson, Keith Cressman, Robert A. Cheke, Mohammed F. Smiej, Eduardo Trumper, and Jørgen Aagaard Axelsen. Their inputs and discussion gave a good basis for this review.International audienceHighlights: • Spatiotemporal forecasting is a key process in the management of locusts. • Forecasts can be used at different risk levels from locust presence to impacts. • Reproducible forecasting systems are still lacking, limiting operationality. • Ecology and human capacities should be at the heart of future forecasting efforts. • Evaluations of forecasting performance need to conducted.Abstract:Locusts are among the most feared agricultural pests. Spatiotemporal forecasting is a key process in their management. The present review aims to 1) set a common language on the subject, 2) evaluate the current methodologies, and 3) identify opportunities to improve forecasting tools. Forecasts can be used to provide reliable predictions on locust presence, reproduction events, gregarization areas, population outbreaks, and potential impacts on agriculture. Statistical approaches are used for the first four objectives, whereas mechanistic approaches are used for the latter. We advocate 1) to build reliable and reproducible spatiotemporal forecasting systems for the impacts on agriculture, 2) to turn scientific studies into operational forecasting systems, and 3) to evaluate the performance of these systems

Emergence of structural patterns in neutral trophic networks

Interaction networks are central elements of ecological systems and have very complex structures. Historically, much effort has focused on niche-mediated processes to explain these structures, while an emerging consensus posits that both niche and neutral mechanisms simultaneously shape many features of ecological communities. However, the study of interaction networks still lacks a comprehensive neutral theory. Here we present a neutral model of predator-prey interactions and analyze the structural characteristics of the simulated networks. We find that connectance values (complexity) and complexity-diversity relationships of neutral networks are close to those observed in empirical bipartite networks. High nestedness and low modularity values observed in neutral networks fall in the range of those from empirical antagonist bipartite networks. Our results suggest that, as an alternative to niche-mediated processes that induce incompatibility between species (‘‘niche forbidden links’’), neutral processes create ‘‘neutral forbidden links’ ’ due to uneven species abundance distributions and the low probability of interaction between rare species. Neutral trophic networks must be seen as the missing endpoint of a continuum from niche to purely stochastic approaches of community organization

‘Keeping the kids at home’ can limit the persistence of contagious pathogens in social animals

In social species where offspring are reared together in communal burrows or similar structures, young animals typically do not engage in between-group contact during their development – a behavioural trait we call ‘offspring with restricted between-group contact’ (ORC). The impact of this trait on the persistence of contagious pathogens that generate lifelong immunity in their hosts is currently unclear. We hypothesize that in populations with ORC, the formation, in groups, of a ‘protective barrier’ of only recovered adults, prevents the transmission of this type of pathogens to the new susceptible hosts (i.e. young animals), thereby increasing the probability of epidemic fade-out. We implement a spatially implicit individual-based Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for a large range of host and pathogen traits and show that the epidemic fade-out probability is consistently higher in populations with ORC, especially when disease spread is fast (high basic reproduction number R0). We also show that ORC can counteract the cost of group-living in terms of disease risk to a greater extent than variation in other traits. We discuss our findings in relation to herd immunity and outline how they could be used to implement efficient management measures such as vaccinations

Data from: Multiple anthropogenic interventions drive puma survival following wolf recovery in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Humans are primary drivers of declining abundances and extirpation of large carnivores worldwide. Management interventions to restore biodiversity patterns, however, include carnivore reintroductions, despite the many unresolved ecological consequences associated with such efforts. Using multistate capture-mark-recapture models, we explored age-specific survival and cause-specific mortality rates for 134 pumas (Puma concolor) monitored in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem during gray wolf (Canis lupus) recovery. We identified two top models explaining differences in puma survivorship, and our results suggested three management interventions (unsustainable puma hunting, reduction of a primary prey, reintroduction of a dominant competitor) have unintentionally impacted puma survival. Specifically, puma survival across age classes was lower in the 6-month hunting season than the 6-month non-hunting season; human-caused mortality rates for juveniles and adults, and predation rates on puma kittens, were higher in the hunting season. Predation on puma kittens, and starvation rates for all pumas, also increased as managers reduced elk (Cervus elaphus) abundance in the system, highlighting direct and indirect effects of competition between recovering wolves and pumas over prey. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the synergistic effects of existing management strategies and the recovery of large, dominant carnivores to effectively conserve subordinate, hunted carnivores in human-dominated landscapes

Newcastle disease virus transmission dynamics in wild peridomestic birds in the United Arab Emirates

International audienceTo understand the dynamics of a pathogen in an animal population, one must assess how the infection status of individuals changes over time. With wild animals, this can be very challenging because individuals can be difficult to trap and sample, even more so since they are tested with imperfect diagnostic techniques. Multi-event capture-recapture models allow analysing longitudinal capture data of individuals whose infection status is assessed using imperfect tests. In this study, we used a two-year dataset from a longitudinal field study of peridomestic wild bird populations in the United Arab Emirates during which thousands of birds from various species were captured, sampled and tested for Newcastle disease virus exposure using a serological test. We developed a multi-event capture-recapture model to estimate important demographic and epidemiological parameters of the disease. The modelling outputs provided important insights into the understanding of Newcastle disease dynamics in peridomestics birds, which varies according to ecological and epidemiological parameters, and useful information in terms of surveillance strategies. To our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to model the dynamics of Newcastle disease in wild bird populations by combining longitudinal capture data and serological test results. Overall, it showcased that multi-event capture-recapture models represent a suitable method to analyse imperfect capture data and make reliable inferences on infectious disease dynamics in wild populations

Chapter 4 - Senegalese grasshopper—a major pest of the Sahel

International audienceLocust and grasshopper (family: Acrididae) outbreaks are ancient agricultural challenges and can be difficult to manage due to their fast population growth and high mobility. The Senegalese grasshopper (Oedaleus senegalensis Krauss, 1877) is a major Sahelian pest distributed from West Africa to India that attacks cereal crops. It typically has three generations during the rainy season, which sequentially migrate north to south with prevailing rains, and is highly responsive to land use and land cover change, preferring fallow fields. Depending on environmental conditions and the characteristics of the rainy season, outbreaks are observed throughout Sahelian countries from Senegal to Sudan. The National Plant Protection Organizations (NPPOs) of many Sahelian countries consider O. senegalensis a significant pest and include it in regular monitoring and treatment programs; however, resources are often limited. Community-based management in collaboration with NPPOs, as well as development of improved decision-making and management tools, can leverage existing infrastructures to advance sustainable pest management and food security