Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders

Double auction prediction markets have proven successful in large-scale applications such as elections and sporting events. Consequently, several large corporations have adopted these markets for smaller-scale internal applications where information may be complex and the number of traders is small. Using laboratory experiments, we test the performance of the double auction in complex environments with few traders and compare it to three alternative mechanisms. When information is complex we find that an iterated poll (or Delphi method) outperforms the double auction mechanism. We present five behavioral observations that may explain why the poll performs better in these settings

Industry Level Baseline Risk of COVID-19 Infection

We collect data from various sources to show the impact of COVID-19 and the related mitigation measures on the Top 20 Texas MSAs. The mission of this project is to gather information about large areas of economic activity in Texas, starting with Austin then expanding to the rest of the top 20 MSAs, in order to make policy recommendations about re-opening the economy with the effect of COVID-19 in mind. For more information please visit the website here, containing the Salem Center’s research, working papers, and other materials.We present an industry classification–level model of economic activities in terms of (1) risk of the novel coronavirus spread and (2) economic contribution for the Austin, Texas, metropolitan area. Our measure combines various categories of activities that seem to lead to viral spread. We think these measures will provide useful information about how to ease current lockdowns and how to more efficiently put in place future lockdowns if they are needed.Salem Cente

Single Nucleotide Polymorphism Typing of Bacillus anthracis from Sverdlovsk Tissue

A small number of conserved canonical single nucleotide polymorphisms (canSNP) that define major phylogenetic branches for Bacillus anthracis were used to place a Sverdlovsk patient’s B. anthracis genotype into 1 of 12 subgroups. Reconstruction of the pagA gene also showed a unique SNP that defines a new lineage for B. anthracis

Analysis of hybrid mode-locking of two-section quantum dot lasers operating at 1.5 micron

For the first time a detailed study of hybrid mode-locking in two- section InAs/InP quantum dot Fabry-Pérot-type lasers is presented. The output pulses have a typical upchirp of approximately 8 ps/nm, leading to very elongated pulses. The mechanism leading to this typical pulse shape and the phase noise is investigated by detailed radio-frequency and optical spectral studies as well as time-domain studies. The pulse shaping mechanism in these lasers is found to be fundamentally different than the mechanism observed in conventional mode-locked laser diodes, based on quantum well gain or bulk material. ©2009 Optical Society of America

90Y-clivatuzumab tetraxetan with or without low-dose gemcitabine: A phase Ib study in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer after two or more prior therapies

AbstractBackgroundFor patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma, there are no approved or established treatments beyond the 2nd line. A Phase Ib study of fractionated radioimmunotherapy was undertaken in this setting, administering 90Y-clivatuzumab tetraxetan (yttrium-90-radiolabelled humanised antibody targeting pancreatic adenocarcinoma mucin) with or without low radiosensitising doses of gemcitabine.MethodsFifty-eight patients with three (2–7) median prior treatments were treated on Arm A (N=29, 90Y-clivatuzumab tetraxetan, weekly 6.5mCi/m2doses×3, plus gemcitabine, weekly 200mg/m2 doses×4 starting 1week earlier) or Arm B (N=29, 90Y-clivatuzumab tetraxetan alone, weekly 6.5mCi/m2doses×3), repeating cycles after 4-week delays. Safety was the primary endpoint; efficacy was also evaluated.ResultsCytopaenias (predominantly transient thrombocytopenia) were the only significant toxicities. Fifty-three patients (27 Arm A, 26 Arm B, 91% overall) completed ⩾1 full treatment cycles, with 23 (12 Arm A, 11 Arm B; 40%) receiving multiple cycles, including seven (6 Arm A, 1 Arm B; 12%) given 3–9 cycles. Two patients in Arm A had partial responses by RECIST criteria. Kaplan–Meier overall survival (OS) appeared improved in Arm A versus B (hazard ratio [HR] 0.55, 95% CI: 0.29–0.86; P=0.017, log-rank) and the median OS for Arm A versus Arm B increased to 7.9 versus 3.4months with multiple cycles (HR 0.32, P=0.004), including three patients in Arm A surviving >1year.ConclusionsClinical studies of 90Y-clivatuzumab tetraxetan combined with low-dose gemcitabine appear feasible in metastatic pancreatic cancer patients beyond 2nd line and a Phase III trial of this combination is now underway in this setting

FOLFIRINOX Induction Therapy for Stage 3 Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

ABSTRACT Background. Reports show that FOLFIRINOX therapy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) results in objective response rates two to threefold higher than those of other regimens. This study aimed to assess response and resection rates for locally unresectable (stage 3) patients initially treated with induction FOLFIRINOX. Methods. The institutional cancer database was queried for patients treated with induction FOLFIRINOX therapy between 2010 and 2013. Patients were included in the study if they were treated at the authors' institution for stage 3 PDAC (locally unresectable) that had been adjudicated at a weekly multidisciplinary tumor board. Results. The study identified 101 patients. The median age was 64 years (range 37-81 years), and the median followup period was 12 months (range 3-37 months). The patients received a median of six cycles (range 1-20 cycles) of induction FOLFIRINOX. No grade 4 or 5 toxicity was recorded. At the initial restaging (median of 3 months after diagnosis), 23 patients (23 %) had developed distant metastases, 15 patients (15 %) had undergone resection, and 63 patients (63 %) had proceeded to chemoradiation. In the group of 63 patients who had proceeded to chemoradiation (median of 9 months after diagnosis), an additional 16 patients (16 %) had undergone resection, and 5 patients (5 %) had developed metastases. A partial radiographic response was observed in 29 % of all the patients, which was associated with ability to perform resection (p = 0.004). The median overall survival time was 11 months for the group that progressed with FOLFIRINOX and 26 months for the group that did not progress. Conclusion. Nearly one third of the patients who had been initially identified as having stage 3 pancreatic carcinoma and had been treated with FOLFIRINOX responded radiographically and underwent tumor resection. A recently completed phase 3 randomized trial for stage 4 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) identified FOL-FIRINOX as superior to gemcitabine in terms of radiographic response together with improved progression-free and overall survival. 1 Patients who received FOLFIRINOX experienced a 32 % objective response rate (ORR) compared with 9 % in the gemcitabine arm of the study, which correlated with survival benefit (median overall and progression-free survival, 11 and 6 versus 7 and 3 months, respectively). Retrospective studies of patients with both borderline resectable PDAC (stages 1 and 2) and stage 3 disease (locally unresectable) also have suggested an ORR of approximately 30 % with FOLFIRINOX. 2,3 The reported ORR from non-FOLFIRINOX regimens has generally been in the range of 10 %, including the results of a phase

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

ISSN exercise & sport nutrition review: research & recommendations

Sports nutrition is a constantly evolving field with hundreds of research papers published annually. For this reason, keeping up to date with the literature is often difficult. This paper is a five year update of the sports nutrition review article published as the lead paper to launch the JISSN in 2004 and presents a well-referenced overview of the current state of the science related to how to optimize training and athletic performance through nutrition. More specifically, this paper provides an overview of: 1.) The definitional category of ergogenic aids and dietary supplements; 2.) How dietary supplements are legally regulated; 3.) How to evaluate the scientific merit of nutritional supplements; 4.) General nutritional strategies to optimize performance and enhance recovery; and, 5.) An overview of our current understanding of the ergogenic value of nutrition and dietary supplementation in regards to weight gain, weight loss, and performance enhancement. Our hope is that ISSN members and individuals interested in sports nutrition find this review useful in their daily practice and consultation with their clients

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AIM: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery. METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin. RESULTS: Overall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P < 0.001). After adjustment, delay was not associated with a lower rate of complete resection (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.90-1.55, P = 0.224), which was consistent in elective patients only (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.27, P = 0.672). Longer delays were not associated with poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION: One in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease