Runtime Distributions and Criteria for Restarts

Randomized algorithms sometimes employ a restart strategy. After a certain number of steps, the current computation is aborted and restarted with a new, independent random seed. In some cases, this results in an improved overall expected runtime. This work introduces properties of the underlying runtime distribution which determine whether restarts are advantageous. The most commonly used probability distributions admit the use of a scale and a location parameter. Location parameters shift the density function to the right, while scale parameters affect the spread of the distribution. It is shown that for all distributions scale parameters do not influence the usefulness of restarts and that location parameters only have a limited influence. This result simplifies the analysis of the usefulness of restarts. The most important runtime probability distributions are the log-normal, the Weibull, and the Pareto distribution. In this work, these distributions are analyzed for the usefulness of restarts. Secondly, a condition for the optimal restart time (if it exists) is provided. The log-normal, the Weibull, and the generalized Pareto distribution are analyzed in this respect. Moreover, it is shown that the optimal restart time is also not influenced by scale parameters and that the influence of location parameters is only linear

DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events

A new nudging method for data assimilation, delay‐coordinate nudging, is presented. Delay‐coordinate nudging makes explicit use of present and past observations in the formulation of the forcing driving the model evolution at each time step. Numerical experiments with a low‐order chaotic system show that the new method systematically outperforms standard nudging in different model and observational scenarios, also when using an unoptimized formulation of the delay‐nudging coefficients. A connection between the optimal delay and the dominant Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics is found based on heuristic arguments and is confirmed by the numerical results, providing a guideline for the practical implementation of the algorithm. Delay‐coordinate nudging preserves the easiness of implementation, the intuitive functioning and the reduced computational cost of the standard nudging, making it a potential alternative especially in the field of seasonal‐to‐decadal predictions with large Earth system models that limit the use of more sophisticated data assimilation procedures

An Investigation into the Determining Factors of Zoo Visitor Attendances in UK Zoos

The debate as to which animals are most beneficial to keep in zoos in terms of financial and conservative value is readily disputed; however, demographic factors have also been shown to relate to visitor numbers on an international level. The main aims of this research were: (1) To observe the distribution and location of zoos across the UK, (2) to develop a way of calculating zoo popularity in terms of the species kept within a collection and (3) to investigate the factors related to visitor numbers regarding admission costs, popularity of the collection in terms of the species kept and local demographic factors. Zoo visitor numbers were positively correlated with generated popularity ratings for zoos based on the species kept within a collection and admission prices (Pearson correlation: n = 34, r = 0.268, P = 0.126 and n = 34, r = −0.430, P = 0.011). Animal collections are aggregated around large cities and tourist regions, particularly coastal areas. No relationship between demographic variables and visitor numbers was found (Pearson correlation: n = 34, r = 0.268, P = 0.126), which suggests that the popularity of a zoo's collection relative to the types and numbers of species kept is more indicative of a collection's visitor numbers than its surrounding demographic figures. Zoos should incorporate generating high popularity scores as part of their collection planning strategies, to ensure that they thrive in the future, not only as tourist attractions but also as major conservation organizations

Eosinophilic gastroenteritis in a young girl – long term remission under Montelukast

BACKGROUND: Eosinophilic gastrointestinal disorders are an emerging disease entity characterized by eosinophilic infiltration of the intestinal wall. Oral steroids can be still considered as first line treatment. Unfortunately relapses are quite common. Usually long term low-dose prednisone or immunosuppressive therapy is required, which is especially problematic in young patients. Thus a reliable steroid sparing agent with low side effects suitable for long term use is needed. There are strong hints to a similar pathophysiology of eosinophilic gastrointestinal disorders to that of asthma. Indeed leukotriene D4 plays an important role in the recruitment of eosinophils into the intestinal tissue causing damage. This patho-mechanism provides the rationale for the treatment with a leukotriene D4 receptor antagonist. Recently there have been first reports about successful short term use of Montelukast in eosinophilic gastrointestinal disorders. CASE PRESENTATION: We report the case of a 17 year old girl with a long history of severe abdominal complaints leading to several hospitalizations in the past. Mimicking the picture of an intestinal tuberculosis she received an anti mycobacterial treatment without any success. Marked eosinophilia in blood, ascites and tissue samples of the intestinal tract finally lead to the diagnosis eosinophilic gastroenteritis. Tapering off prednisone caused another severe episode of abdominal pain. At that point leukotriene antagonist Montelukast was started at a dose of 10 mg once daily. Steroids could be tapered off completely within six weeks. The patient has been free of symptoms for over two years by now. Routine examinations, blood tests and endoscopy have rendered regular results. So far no side effects were noted. CONCLUSION: Here report about successful long term remission of eosinophilic gastroenteritis under Montelukast. Further randomized control trials are required to asses the full benefits of Montelukast therapy in the whole spectrum of eosinophilic gastrointestinal disorders

Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts

In recent years several methodologies have been developed to combine and interpret ensembles of climate models with the aim of quantifying uncertainties in climate projections. Constrained climate model forecasts have been generated by combining various choices of metrics used to weight individual ensemble members, with diverse approaches to sampling the ensemble. The forecasts obtained are often significantly different, even when based on the same model output. Therefore, a climate model forecast classification system can serve two roles: to provide a way for forecast producers to self-classify their forecasts; and to provide information on the methodological assumptions underlying the forecast generation and its uncertainty when forecasts are used for impacts studies. In this review we propose a possible classification system based on choices of metrics and sampling strategies. We illustrate the impact of some of the possible choices in the uncertainty quantification of large scale projections of temperature and precipitation changes, and briefly discuss possible connections between climate forecast uncertainty quantification and decision making approaches in the climate change context

Bioavailability in soils

The consumption of locally-produced vegetables by humans may be an important exposure pathway for soil contaminants in many urban settings and for agricultural land use. Hence, prediction of metal and metalloid uptake by vegetables from contaminated soils is an important part of the Human Health Risk Assessment procedure. The behaviour of metals (cadmium, chromium, cobalt, copper, mercury, molybdenum, nickel, lead and zinc) and metalloids (arsenic, boron and selenium) in contaminated soils depends to a large extent on the intrinsic charge, valence and speciation of the contaminant ion, and soil properties such as pH, redox status and contents of clay and/or organic matter. However, chemistry and behaviour of the contaminant in soil alone cannot predict soil-to-plant transfer. Root uptake, root selectivity, ion interactions, rhizosphere processes, leaf uptake from the atmosphere, and plant partitioning are important processes that ultimately govern the accumulation ofmetals and metalloids in edible vegetable tissues. Mechanistic models to accurately describe all these processes have not yet been developed, let alone validated under field conditions. Hence, to estimate risks by vegetable consumption, empirical models have been used to correlate concentrations of metals and metalloids in contaminated soils, soil physico-chemical characteristics, and concentrations of elements in vegetable tissues. These models should only be used within the bounds of their calibration, and often need to be re-calibrated or validated using local soil and environmental conditions on a regional or site-specific basis.Mike J. McLaughlin, Erik Smolders, Fien Degryse, and Rene Rietr

Chronic non-specific low back pain - sub-groups or a single mechanism?

Copyright 2008 Wand and O'Connell; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background: Low back pain is a substantial health problem and has subsequently attracted a considerable amount of research. Clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of a variety of interventions for chronic non-specific low back pain indicate limited effectiveness for most commonly applied interventions and approaches. Discussion: Many clinicians challenge the results of clinical trials as they feel that this lack of effectiveness is at odds with their clinical experience of managing patients with back pain. A common explanation for this discrepancy is the perceived heterogeneity of patients with chronic non-specific low back pain. It is felt that the effects of treatment may be diluted by the application of a single intervention to a complex, heterogeneous group with diverse treatment needs. This argument presupposes that current treatment is effective when applied to the correct patient. An alternative perspective is that the clinical trials are correct and current treatments have limited efficacy. Preoccupation with sub-grouping may stifle engagement with this view and it is important that the sub-grouping paradigm is closely examined. This paper argues that there are numerous problems with the sub-grouping approach and that it may not be an important reason for the disappointing results of clinical trials. We propose instead that current treatment may be ineffective because it has been misdirected. Recent evidence that demonstrates changes within the brain in chronic low back pain sufferers raises the possibility that persistent back pain may be a problem of cortical reorganisation and degeneration. This perspective offers interesting insights into the chronic low back pain experience and suggests alternative models of intervention. Summary: The disappointing results of clinical research are commonly explained by the failure of researchers to adequately attend to sub-grouping of the chronic non-specific low back pain population. Alternatively, current approaches may be ineffective and clinicians and researchers may need to radically rethink the nature of the problem and how it should best be managed