Prévision du trafic des voyageurs sur lignes ferroviaires à grande vitesse : expériences avec deux modèles d'analyses sur la relation Barcelone-frontière française

This paper describes the current situation of the transport flows by modes in the international relations between Spain and the rest of Europe. It explains the geographic zoning adopted for accurately establishing origin/destination flows. Details the different models used for traffic forecasting, including everything necessary for evaluating the induced traffic on all new high speed lines in accordance with French experience. Finally the paper will provide the results obtained for the total traffic and for each origin/destination.Cette communication a pour but d'exposer la situation actuelle des flux de trafic par modes de transport sur les relations internationales par la frontière méditerranéenne. Elle explicite les différents modèles employés pour prévoir le trafic y compris celui adopté pour quantifier le trafic induit, en se basant sur l'expérience française en ce domaine. Le rapport indique les résultats obtenus, pour les principales origine/destination. Les résultats sont comparés à ceux qui ressortent de l'application du modèle développé par la NEA. On remarque le très bon accord entre les résultats de l'une et l'autre méthodologie

Les notions de rural, de ruralité et de développement rural en contextes latino-américains

International audienc

Association of galectin-3 and fibrosis markers with long-term cardiovascular outcomes in patients with heart failure, left ventricular dysfunction, and dyssynchrony: insights from the CARE-HF (Cardiac Resynchronization in Heart Failure) trial

Aims Circulating biomarkers of collagen turnover reflect extracellular cardiac matrix (ECCM) remodelling. The extent to which the success of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is influenced by the degree of cardiac fibrosis and whether CRT can influence matrix remodelling has yet to be studied. Our aim was to determine, in patients with heart failure (HF) and cardiac dyssynchrony, whether ECCM biomarkers are influenced by CRT and can predict cardiovascular outcomes and response to CRT. Methods and results Serum levels of ECCM biomarkers [galectin-3 (Gal-3), N-terminal propeptides of type I and III procollagens (PINP and PIIINP), type I collagen telopeptide (ICTP), and matrix metalloproteinase 1 (MMP-1)] were measured in 260 patients, in a substudy of CARE-HF, a randomized controlled trial which evaluated the effects of CRT in patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction and cardiac dyssynchrony. ECCM biomarkers did not change throughout the 18-month follow-up period. In age-and gender-adjusted analyses, Gal-3 and PIIINP were associated with death or HF hospitalization. In a further multivariate model, Gal-3 >30 ng/mL was associated [OR (95% CI):2.98 (1.436.22), P = 0.004] with death or HF hospitalization, along with left ventricular end-systolic volume >200 mL [3.42 (OR: 1.657.10), P = 0.001]. The outcome death or left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤35% was associated with MMP-1 [≤3 ng/mL: 3.04 (1.376.71), P 0.006]. No significant interaction was observed between the tested biomarkers and the treatment group. Conclusions Increased Gal-3 and PIIINP, and low MMP-1 are associated with adverse long-term cardiovascular outcomes but did not predict response to CRT. CRT did not favourably affect serum concentrations of ECCM markers

Public health impact and economic benefits of quadrivalent influenza vaccine in Latin America

Annual trivalent influenza vaccines (TIV) containing 2 A strains and one B lineage have been recommended for the prevention of influenza in most of Latin American countries. However, the circulation of 2 B lineages (Victoria and Yamagata) and difficulties in predicting the predominating lineage have led to the development of quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV), including both B lineages. Thus, the objective was to estimate the public health impact and influenza-related costs if QIV would have been used instead of TIV in 3 Latin American countries. We used a static model over the seasons 2010–2014 in Brazil, 2007–2014 in Colombia and 2006–2014 in Panama, focusing on population groups targeted by local vaccination recommendations: young children, adults with risk factors and the elderly. In Brazil, between 2010 and 2014, using QIV instead of TIV would have avoided US$6,200 per 100,000 person-years in societal costs, based on 168 influenza cases, 89 consultations, 3.2 hospitalizations and 0.38 deaths per 100,000 person-years. In Colombia and Panama, these would have ranged from US$ 1,000 to 12,700 (based on 34 cases, 13–25 consultations, 0.6–8.9 hospitalizations and 0.04–1.74 deaths) and from US$ 3,000 to 33,700 (based on 113 cases, 55–82 consultations, 0.5–27.8 hospitalizations and 0.08–6.87 deaths) per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Overall, the broader protection offered by QIV would have reduced the influenza humanistic and economic burden in the 3 countries. Despite the lack of local data leading to several extrapolations, this study is the first to give quantitative estimates of the potential benefits of QIV in Latin America