Speeding Up Microevolution: The Effects of Increasing Temperature on Selection and Genetic Variance in a Wild Bird Population

The authors show that environmental variation may lead to a positive association between the annual strength of selection and expression of genetic variance in a wild bird population, which can speed up microevolution and have important consequences for how fast natural populations adapt to environmental changes

Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals

International audienceTemporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection

Comparative evidence for a link between Peyer's patch development and susceptibility to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological analyses indicate that the age distribution of natural cases of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) reflect age-related risk of infection, however, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Using a comparative approach, we tested the hypothesis that, there is a significant correlation between risk of infection for scrapie, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and variant CJD (vCJD), and the development of lymphoid tissue in the gut. METHODS: Using anatomical data and estimates of risk of infection in mathematical models (which included results from previously published studies) for sheep, cattle and humans, we calculated the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, r(s), between available measures of Peyer's patch (PP) development and the estimated risk of infection for an individual of the corresponding age. RESULTS: There was a significant correlation between the measures of PP development and the estimated risk of TSE infection; the two age-related distributions peaked in the same age groups. This result was obtained for each of the three host species: for sheep, surface area of ileal PP tissue vs risk of infection, r(s )= 0.913 (n = 19, P < 0.001), and lymphoid follicle density vs risk of infection, r(s )= 0.933 (n = 19, P < 0.001); for cattle, weight of PP tissue vs risk of infection, r(s )= 0.693 (n = 94, P < 0.001); and for humans, number of PPs vs risk of infection, r(s )= 0.384 (n = 46, P = 0.008). In addition, when changes in exposure associated with BSE-contaminated meat were accounted for, the two age-related patterns for humans remained concordant: r(s )= 0.360 (n = 46, P = 0.014). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that, for sheep, cattle and humans alike there is an association between PP development (or a correlate of PP development) and susceptibility to natural TSE infection. This association may explain changes in susceptibility with host age, and differences in the age-susceptibility relationship between host species

Genetic variance in fitness indicates rapid contemporary adaptive evolution in wild animals

Funding: Hoge Veluwe great tits: the NIOO-KNAW, ERC, and numerous funding agencies; Wytham great tits: Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, ERC, and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.PostprintPeer reviewe

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5–2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1–14.8 days earlier on average)

Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals

Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.L-M.C. and P.d.V. acknowledge support from the European Research Coun-cil (ERC) (Grant 678140-FluctEvol). The Montpellier tit group acknowledgesthe long-term support of the Observatoire des Sciences de l’Univers – Obser-vatoire de REcherche Montpelli ́erain de l’Environnement (OSU-OREME). Thebighorn, mountain goat, and eastern gray kangaroo studies were supportedby Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada.Recent data collection for Wytham has been provided by grants fromBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/L006081/1), ERC(AdG250164), and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)(NE/K006274/1, NE/S010335/1). The Columbian ground squirrel study wassupported by the National Science Foundation (Grant DEB-0089473). Traitand fitness data for hihi were collected/managed by John Ewen underNew Zealand Department of Conservation hihi management contracts andresearch permits AK/15073/RES, AK-24128-FAU, 36186-FAU, and 44300-FAUand with additional financial support via NERC UK, The Leverhulme TrustUK, Marsden Fund New Zealand, and the Hihi Conservation CharitableTrust. The data on reindeer were made available through the Reindeerhusbandry in a Globalizing North Nordic Center of Excellence, and thecrew at Kutuharju Experimental Reindeer Research Station in the ReindeerHerder’s Association are thanked for their valuable assistance and logisticsupport in data collection. The red deer, Silwood blue tit, and Soay sheepdatasets were supported by UK NERC. Lundy sparrow data were supportedby NERC, a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Action, and Volkswagenstiftung. Thered squirrel project was funded by NSERC of Canada and the NationalScience Foundation. J.C.S. was supported by a grant from the Ministry ofEconomy and Competitivity, Spanish Research Council (CGL-2016-79568-C3-3-P). J.T., T.K., and M.G. were supported by the Research Council of Norwaythrough its Centers for Excellence funding scheme, Project 223257. Researchon fairy wrens has been supported by the Australian Research Council