Seven challenges for model-driven data collection in experimental and observational studies.

Infectious disease models are both concise statements of hypotheses and powerful techniques for creating tools from hypotheses and theories. As such, they have tremendous potential for guiding data collection in experimental and observational studies, leading to more efficient testing of hypotheses and more robust study designs. In numerous instances, infectious disease models have played a key role in informing data collection, including the Garki project studying malaria, the response to the 2009 pandemic of H1N1 influenza in the United Kingdom and studies of T-cell immunodynamics in mammals. However, such synergies remain the exception rather than the rule; and a close marriage of dynamic modeling and empirical data collection is far from the norm in infectious disease research. Overcoming the challenges to using models to inform data collection has the potential to accelerate innovation and to improve practice in how we deal with infectious disease threats

Measures of behavioral function predict duration of video game play: utilization of the Video Game Functional Assessment - Revised

Background: Internet gaming disorder (IGD) was introduced in the DSM-5 as a way of identifying and diagnosing problematic video game play. However, the use of the diagnosis is constrained, as it shares criteria with other addictive orders (e.g., pathological gambling). Aims: Further work is required to better understand IGD. One potential avenue of investigation is IGD’s relationship to the primary reinforcing behavioral functions. This study explores the relationship between duration of video game play and the reinforcing behavioral functions that may motivate or maintain video gaming. Methods: A total of 499 video game players began the online survey, with complete data from 453 participants (85% white and 28% female), were analyzed. Individuals were placed into five groups based on self-reported hours of video gaming per week, and completed the Video Game Functional Assessment – Revised (VGFA-R). Results: The results demonstrated the escape and social attention function were significant in predicting duration of video game play, whereas sensory and tangible were not significant. Conclusion: Future implications of the VGFA-R and behaviorally based research are discussed

Rituximab and intravenous immunoglobulin treatment in PM/Scl antibody-associated disease: case-based review.

Autoantibodies to the 75-kDa and 100-kDa subunits of the PM/Scl nucleolar protein complex are associated with an overlap syndrome, manifesting with clinical features of systemic sclerosis and idiopathic inflammatory myopathy. We describe the diverse clinical features in a series of 4 cases with anti-PM/Scl-75 and/or anti-PM/Scl-100 antibodies, including severe proximal muscle weakness, oesophageal dysfunction, respiratory weakness requiring mechanical ventilation, Raynaud's, calcinosis cutis, sclerodactyly and critical digital ischaemia. Despite the severity of striated and oesophageal muscle weakness, all patients responded very well to immune suppression, and calcinosis cutis in one case regressed substantially. We highlight the efficacy of Rituximab and intravenous immunoglobulin therapy (IVIg) in these cases, enabling return to normal muscle function within six months. Rituximab was preferentially chosen for cases with hyper-gammaglobulinemia and multiple autoantibodies in addition to anti-PM/Scl, and IVIg was utilised for cases where a rapid onset of effect was required, such as severe ventilator-dependent respiratory muscle weakness and oesophageal dysfunction

Magma Pressure-Temperature-Time Paths During Mafic Explosive Eruptions

We have constrained syneruptive pressure-temperature-time (P-T-t) paths of mafic magmas using a combination of short-timescale cooling and decompression chronometers. Recent work has shown that the thermal histories of crystals in the last few seconds to hours of eruption can be constrained using concentration gradients of MgO inside olivine-hosted melt inclusions, produced in response to syneruptive cooling and crystallization of olivine on the inclusion walls. We have applied this technique to the study of melt inclusions erupted by arc and ocean island volcanoes, including the 1974 subplinian eruption of Fuego volcano; the 1977 fire-fountain eruption of Seguam volcano; and three eruptions of Kilauea volcano (episode 1 of the 1959 Kilauea Iki fire-fountain eruption, the 1500 CE vigorous fire-fountain eruption, and the 1650 CE subplinian eruption). Of the eruptions studied so far, melt inclusions from the 1959 Kilauea Iki eruption record the highest syneruptive cooling rates (3–11°C/s) and the shortest cooling durations (4–19 s), while inclusions from the 1974 Fuego eruption record the slowest cooling rates (0.1–1.7°C/s) and longest cooling durations (21–368 s). The high cooling rates inferred for the Kilauea Iki and Seguam fire fountain eruptions are consistent with air quenching over tens of seconds during and after fragmentation and eruption. Melt inclusions sampled from the interiors of small (∼6 cm diameter) volcanic bombs at Fuego are found to have cooled more slowly on average than inclusions sampled from ash (with particle diameters < 2 mm) during the same eruption, as expected based on conductive cooling models. We find evidence for a systematic relationship between cooling rates and decompression rates of magmas, in which rapidly ascending gas-bearing magmas experience slower cooling during ascent and eruption than slowly ascending magmas. Our magma P-T-t constraints for the Kilauea Iki eruption are in broad agreement with isentropic models that show that the dominant driver of cooling in the conduit is adiabatic expansion of a vapor phase; however, at Fuego and Seguam, our results suggest a significant role for latent heat production and/or open-system degassing (both of which violate assumptions required for isentropic ascent). We thereby caution against the application of isentropic conduit models to magmas containing relatively high initial water concentrations (e.g., arc magmas containing ∼4 wt% water). We note that several processes that have been inferred to occur in volcanic conduits such as magma stalling, magma mingling, open- and closed-system degassing, vapor fluxing, and vapor accumulation (in foam layers or as slugs of gas) are associated with different implied vapor volume fractions during syneruptive ascent. Given the sensitivity of magma P-T-t paths to vapor volume fraction, the syneruptive thermometer presented here may be a means of identifying these processes during the seconds to hours preceding the eruption of mafic magmas

Outlier Edge Detection Using Random Graph Generation Models and Applications

Outliers are samples that are generated by different mechanisms from other normal data samples. Graphs, in particular social network graphs, may contain nodes and edges that are made by scammers, malicious programs or mistakenly by normal users. Detecting outlier nodes and edges is important for data mining and graph analytics. However, previous research in the field has merely focused on detecting outlier nodes. In this article, we study the properties of edges and propose outlier edge detection algorithms using two random graph generation models. We found that the edge-ego-network, which can be defined as the induced graph that contains two end nodes of an edge, their neighboring nodes and the edges that link these nodes, contains critical information to detect outlier edges. We evaluated the proposed algorithms by injecting outlier edges into some real-world graph data. Experiment results show that the proposed algorithms can effectively detect outlier edges. In particular, the algorithm based on the Preferential Attachment Random Graph Generation model consistently gives good performance regardless of the test graph data. Further more, the proposed algorithms are not limited in the area of outlier edge detection. We demonstrate three different applications that benefit from the proposed algorithms: 1) a preprocessing tool that improves the performance of graph clustering algorithms; 2) an outlier node detection algorithm; and 3) a novel noisy data clustering algorithm. These applications show the great potential of the proposed outlier edge detection techniques.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, journal pape

Electromagnetic channel capacity for practical purposes

We give analytic upper bounds to the channel capacity C for transmission of classical information in electromagnetic channels (bosonic channels with thermal noise). In the practically relevant regimes of high noise and low transmissivity, by comparison with know lower bounds on C, our inequalities determine the value of the capacity up to corrections which are irrelevant for all practical purposes. Examples of such channels are radio communication, infrared or visible-wavelength free space channels. We also provide bounds to active channels that include amplification.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures. NB: the capacity bounds are constructed by generalizing to the multi-mode case the minimum-output entropy bounds of arXiv:quant-ph/0404005 [Phys. Rev. A 70, 032315 (2004)

Sex effects in mouse prion disease incubation time.

Prion disease incubation time in mice is determined by many factors including PrP expression level, Prnp alleles, genetic background, prion strain and route of inoculation. Sex differences have been described in age of onset for vCJD and in disease duration for both vCJD and sporadic CJD and have also been shown in experimental models. The sex effects reported for mouse incubation times are often contradictory and detail only one strain of mice or prions, resulting in broad generalisations and a confusing picture. To clarify the effect of sex on prion disease incubation time in mice we have compared male and female transmission data from twelve different inbred lines of mice inoculated with at least two prion strains, representing both mouse-adapted scrapie and BSE. Our data show that sex can have a highly significant difference on incubation time. However, this is limited to particular mouse and prion strain combinations. No sex differences were seen in endogenous PrP(C) levels nor in the neuropathological markers of prion disease: PrP(Sc) distribution, spongiosis, neuronal loss and gliosis. These data suggest that when comparing incubation times between experimental groups, such as testing the effects of modifier genes or therapeutics, single sex groups should be used

Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation