The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr(-1) towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr(-1). Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future

Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale

This study was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant P2BEP3_195232) and by the Academy of Finland (project 323527 and project 329251).Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.Peer reviewe

Žiemojančių kurapkų apskaitos 2011-2012 m. žiemą rezultatai

Lietuvos ornitologų draugijaVytauto Didžiojo universitetasŽemės ūkio akademij

Europos bendrijos svarbios gyvūnų rūšių monitoringo metodikos : paukščiai

Vytauto Didžiojo universitetasŽemės ūkio akademij

Didžiojo kormorano (Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis) svarba žuvų ištekliams ir parazitinių kirmėlių paplitimui Kuršių marių regione

Buvo tiriama vienų didžiausių Europoje didžiojo kormorano kolonijų svarba žuvų ištekliams ir parazitinių kirmėlių paplitimui Kuršių marių regione. Perinčių kormoranų skaičius Kuršių marių pakrantėse per pastaruosius 30 metų išaugo nuo 0 iki 10 000 porų. Nustatyta, kad šiame regione kormoranai maitinasi 25 rūšių žuvimis. Didžiąją jų maisto dalį sudaro verslinės ešerinių (Percidae) ir karpinių (Cyprinidae) šeimų žuvys. Ištyrus 14 didžiųjų kormoranų, rasta 17 helmintų rūšių. Tikėtina, kad itin sparčiai plintantys didieji kormoranai perneša į Kuršių marių regioną naujas parazitinių kirmėlių rūšis. Tirtuose paukščiuose nustatytos penkios anksčiau šiame regione neaptiktos helmintų rūšys. Naujų pavojingų parazitinių kirmėlių Contracaecum rudolphii (galimai patogeninė rūšis žmogui ir naminiams gyvūnams) bei Paradilepis scolecina (dilepidozės Kuršių marių karšiams sukėlėja) atsiradimas Kuršių marių regione (abi rūšys pirmą kartą aptiktos 2004 m.) siejamas su itin greitu didžiojo kormorano populiacijos išplitimu ir gausumuThe population trends, diet composition and helminthes fauna were investigated in the newly established colonies of great cormorant located at the coasts of the Curonian Lagoon of the Baltic Sea. The numbers of breeding birds have increased from 0 in the 1970s to about 10000 pairs in the 2000s. These newly formed colonies of great cormorant are among the largest in Europe. 25 fish species were identified in the diet composition of great cormorants. Freshwater fish species, mostly percids (Percidae) and cyprinids (Cyprinidae), dominate in the diet composition of birds in the Curonian Lagoon area, comprising more than 90% by number and biomass. 17 helminthes species were found in great cormorants. The recent establishment of great cormorant as a new and very abundant species was one of the determining factors for introduction of new parasite species in the Curonian Lagoon area. Nematode Contracaecum rudolphii, potentially pathogenic for animals and people, and cestodes Paradilepis scolecina, which has caused fish disease dilepidosis revealed in bream (Abramis brama), were found in the Curonian Lagoon area in 2004Biologijos katedraGamtos tyrimų centrasVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Wind energy development and wildlife conservation in Lithuania: A mapping tool for conflict assessment.

The paper presents a mapping tool aiming to identify and minimise potential conflicts between onshore wind energy development and wildlife conservation in Lithuania. It merges current information on the distribution, conservation status and sensitivity of birds and bats to wind power with an integrated evaluation of wind resources (modelled wind speed), special planning status and technical perspectives of wind energy development. The paper includes assessment of the selected wildlife species which were described as sensitive to wind power (69 breeding and 43 migratory bird species and 17 bat species bats in the country). Used species level information allowed the precise identification of sensitive territories and might be used to mitigate negative wind farm effects using special measures based on species behavior. Finally, we delivered overlaps as possible conflicts among the most promising wind farm areas and the areas with high sensitivity in relation to bird and bat distribution. These overlaps point to the required attention and relevant decisions that are needed to ensure sustainable development of wind energy throughout the country. We suggest this tool for initial determination of appropriate areas for wind energy development in the country and as supplement to Environmental Impact Assessment

Woodland and urban populations of the woodpigeon Columba palumbus in the eastern Baltic region

We investigated breeding densities and distribution of the woodpigeon Columba palumbus in woodland and urban habitats of Lithuania, Belarus and the Kaliningrad oblast (administrative district) of Russia. In Lithuania and Belarus, where the urbanisation process of the woodpigeon is in an initial phase, breeding densities in woodland habitats are higher than in urban areas. In the Kaliningrad oblast of Russia, where abundant urban populations have been established in towns for decades, breeding densities in urban habitats are significantly higher than in woodland sites. Available data indicate that at present the eastern border of the European distribution of well-established urban woodpigeon populations extends approximately along the western border of Lithuania, Belarus and UkraineBiologijos katedraGamtos tyrimų centrasVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Iškiliausias biologas, kokį kada turėjo Lietuva arba dar kartą apie akademiko Tado Ivanausko nuopelnus ir jo veikos riekšmę Lietuvos valstybei ir biologijos mokslui

Gamtos tyrimų centrasLietuvos Jūrų muziejusLietuvos ornitologų draugijaMiškų ir ekologijos fakultetasTado Ivanausko zoologijos muziejusUždaroji akcinė bendrovė "Ventės Ragas"Vilniaus universitetasVytauto Didžiojo universiteta