Rice insect pests and their natural enemies complex in direct seeded and transplanted rice (Oryza sativa) of Chidambaram areas of Cuddalore, India

Rice is the cereal grain that feeds half the planet. Rice fields are economically important as well as ecologically valuable. Rice fields are one of the biggest ecosystems that can be found in the tropics, including diverse insect pests and their natural enemies. In this view, rice varieties were sown in experimental plots of Faculty of Agriculture, Annamalai University, Chidambaram. The values are found significant at 5% level. To monitor the pest and natural enemies by using net sweeping and yellow pan trap method was used. The results showed that the maximum number of yellow stem borer was observed in the direct-seeded rice variety of CR Dhan 209 (7.33) and the leaf folder population was maximum in the direct-seeded rice variety of CR Dhan 204 (7.33). The peak population of grasshopper and green leafhopper was recorded in the transplanted rice variety of CR Dhan200 (11.33), CR Dhan 209 (8.00). The values were found significant at 5% level. The maximum number of Braconidae was observed in direct-seeded rice variety of CR Dhan 205 (3.66), and Ichneumonidae was recorded the highest number of direct-seeded and transplanted rice in the variety of CR Dhan 202 (3.00). The peak population of Trichogrammatidae was recorded in direct-seeded rice of CR Dhan 207 (3.66). The presence of Platygastridae was high in the transplanted rice variety of CR Dhan 201 (8.66), respectively. Among the rice ecosystems, more insect pests and crop damage were noticed in direct-seeded rice more than the transplanted rice

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Proceedings of the 2016 Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Scientific Meeting: Toronto, Canada. 14-17 April 2016

Table of Contents P1 Serologic evidence of gut-driven systemic inflammation in juvenile idiopathic arthritis Lampros Fotis, Nur Shaikh, Kevin Baszis, Anthony French, Phillip Tarr P2 Oral health and anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA) in juvenile idiopathic arthritis Sriharsha Grevich, Peggy Lee, Sarah Ringold, Brian Leroux, Hannah Leahey, Megan Yuasa, Jessica Foster, Jeremy Sokolove, Lauren Lahey, William Robinson, Joshua Newsom, Anne Stevens P3 Novel autoantigens for endothelial cell antibodies in pediatric rheumatic diseases identified by proteomics Rie Karasawa, Mayumi Tamaki, Megumi Tanaka, Toshiko Sato, Kazuo Yudoh, James N. Jarvis P4 Transcriptional profiling reveals monocyte signature associated with JIA patient poor response to methotrexate Halima Moncrieffe, Mark F. Bennett, Monica Tsoras, Lorie Luyrink, Huan Xu, Sampath Prahalad, Paula Morris, Jason Dare, Peter A. Nigrovic, Margalit Rosenkranz, Mara Becker, Kathleen M. O’Neil, Thomas Griffin, Daniel J. Lovell, Alexei A. Grom, Mario Medvedovic, Susan D. Thompson P5 A multi-dimensional genomic map for polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis Lisha Zhu, Kaiyu Jiang, Laiping Wong, Michael J Buck, Yanmin Chen, Halima Moncrieffe, Laura Brungs, Tao Liu, Ting Wang, James N Jarvis P6 Tocilizumab for treatment of children with refractory JIA Khaled Alsaeid, Jasim Alfailakawi, Hamid Alenezi, Hazim Alsaeed P7 Clinical characteristics of the initial patients enrolled in the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Registry Tim Beukelman, Marc Natter, Norm Ilowite, Kelly Mieszkalski, Grendel Burrell, Brian Best, Helen Bristow, Shannon Carr, Anne Dennos, Rachel Kaufmann, Yukiko Kimura, Laura Schanberg P8 Comparative performance of small and large clinical centers in a comprehensive pediatric rheumatology disease registry Peter R Blier P9 Clinical characteristics of children with membranous lupus nephritis: The Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance Legacy Registry Alexis Boneparth, Scott E. Wenderfer, L. Nandini Moorthy, Suhas M. Radhakrishna, Anna Carmela P. Sagcal-Gironella, Emily von Scheven P10 Rituximab use in pediatric lupus anticoagulant hypoprothrombinemia syndrome - a two center experience Kader Cetin Gedik, Salma Siddique, Cassyanne L. Aguiar, Doruk Erkan P11 Predictors of complementary and alternative medicine use and response in children with musculoskeletal conditions Ezra Cohen, Yvonne Lee, Michelle Dossett, Darshan Mehta, Roger Davis P12 Comparison of pediatric rheumatology and nephrology survey results for the treatment of refractory proliferative lupus nephritis and renal flare in juvenile SLE Mileka Gilbert, Beatrice Goilav, Esra Meidan, Joyce Hsu, Alexis Boneparth, Anabelle Chua, Stacy Ardoin, Scott E. Wenderfer, Emily Von Scheven, Natasha M. Ruth P13 Transitioning lupus patients from pediatric to adult rheumatology Joyce Hui-Yuen, Kader Cetin Gedik, Liza Bermudez, Ashlea Cook, Lisa Imundo, Amy Starr, Andrew Eichenfield, Anca Askanase P14 The systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis cohort of the Childhood Arthritis & Rheumatology Research Alliance Registry Ginger Janow, Laura E. Schanberg, Soko Setoguchi, Victor Hasselblad, Elizabeth D. Mellins, Rayfel Schneider, Yukiko Kimura, The CARRA Legacy Registry Investigators P15 Results of the pilot study of the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) consensus treatment plans for new-onset systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis Yukiko Kimura, Sriharsha Grevich, Timothy Beukelman, Esi Morgan, T Brent Graham, Maria Ibarra, Yonit Sterba Ruas, Marisa Klein-Gitelman, Karen Onel, Sampath Prahalad, Marilynn Punaro, Sarah Ringold, Dana Toib, Heather Van Mater, Jennifer E. Weiss, Pamela F. Weiss, Kelly Mieszkalski, Laura E. Schanberg P16 A systemic review of pain relief modalities in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: First step in developing a novel decision support intervention Timothy S. H. Kwok, Jacinthe Bisaillon, Christine Smith, Lucie Brosseau, Jennifer Stinson, Adam M. Huber, Ciaran M. Duffy, Karine Toupin April P17 Barriers and facilitators to care retention for pediatric systemic lupus erythematous patients in South Africa: A qualitative study Laura B Lewandowski, Christiaan Scott P18 Evaluating the feasibility of conducting comparative effectiveness studies in juvenile Localized Scleroderma (jLS) Suzanne C. Li, Kathryn S. Torok, C. Egla Rabinovich, Sandy D. Hong, Mara L Becker, Fatma Dedeoglu, Maria F. Ibarra, Polly J Ferguson, Rob C. Fuhbrigge, Katie G. Stewart, Elena Pope, Ronald M. Laxer, Thomas G. Mason, Gloria C. Higgins, Xiaohu Li, Marilynn G. Punaro, George Tomlinson, Eleanor Pullenayegum, John Matelski, Laura Schanberg, Brian M. Feldman P19 Tonsillar histology in patients with periodic fever, aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis, adenitis (PFAPA) syndrome Kalpana Manthiram, Hernan Correa, Kathryn Edwards P20 Clinical course of juvenile dermatomyositis presenting as skin predominant disease Edward J. Oberle, Michelle Bayer, Dominic O. Co, Hatice Ezgi Baris, Yvonne Chiu, Adam Huber, Susan Kim P21 A Survey of musculoskeletal ultrasound practices of pediatric rheumatologists in North America Edward J Oberle, Timothy Beukelman P22 Assessment, classification and treatment of calcinosis as a complication of juvenile dermatomyositis: A survey of pediatric rheumatologists by the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance Amir B. Orandi, Kevin W. Baszis, Vikas Dharnidharka, Mark F. Hoeltzel, for the CARRA JDM Committee P23 CARRA dermatomyositis CTP pilot study Ann Reed, Adam Huber, George Tomlinson, Eleanor Pullenayegum, John Matelski, Y. Ingrid Goh, Laura Schanberg, Brian M. Feldman P24 Unexpectedly high incidences and prolonged disease activity in children with chronic non-bacterial osteomyelitis (CNO) as compared to bacterial osteomyelitis Anja Schnabel, Ursula Range, Gabriele Hahn, Timo Siepmann, Reinhard Berner, Christian Michael Hedrich P25 Juvenile systemic sclerosis cohort within the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Legacy Registry: Follow up characteristics Brandi Stevens, Kathryn S. Torok, Suzanne Li, Nicole Hershey, Megan Curran, Gloria Higgins, Katharine Moore, Egla Rabinovich, Anne M. Stevens, for the CARRA Registry Investigators P26 Development and usability testing of an iPad and desktop psycho-educational game for children with Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis and their parents Jennifer Stinson, Mark Connelly, Adam Huber, Nadia Luca, Lynn Spiegel, Argerie Tsimicalis, Stephanie Luca, Naweed Tajuddin, Roberta Berard, Julia Barsalou, Sarah Campillo, Paul Dancey, Ciaran Duffy, Brian Feldman, Nicole Johnson, Patrick McGrath, Natalie Shiff, Shirley Tse, Lori Tucker, Charles Victor P27 iCanCopeTM: User-centred design and development of a smartphone app to support self-management for youth with arthritis pain Jennifer Stinson, Chitra Lalloo, Lauren Harris, Joseph Cafazzo, Lynn Spiegel, Brian Feldman, Nadia Luca, Ronald Laxer P28 Accessing pediatric rheumatology care: Despite barriers, few parents prefer telemedicine Danielle R. Bullock, Richard K. Vehe, Lei Zhang, Colleen K. Correll1 P29 Exploration of factors contributing to time to achieve clinically inactive disease (CID) in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA): A preliminary report Suhas Ganguli, Max Shenberger, Ritesh Korumilli, Beth Gottlieb P30 Pediatric rheumatology referral patterns: Presenting complaints of new patients at a large, urban academic center Martha Rodriguez, Deirdre de Ranieri, Karen Onel, Linda Wagner-Weiner, Melissa Tesher P31 Quality improvement (QI) initiatives in childhood systemic lupus erythematosus (cSLE) Elizabeth Roth Wojcicki, Kristyn L. Maletta, Dominic O. Co, Marsha Malloy, Sarah Thomson, Judyann C. Olson P32 Proliferative lupus nephritis in juvenile SLE: Support from the pediatric nephrology community for the definitions of responsiveness and flare in the 2012 consensus treatment plans Scott E. Wenderfer, Mileka Gilbert, Joyce Hsu, Sangeeta Sule, Tamar B. Rubinstein, Beatrice Goilav, Daryl M. Okamura, Annabelle Chua, Laurence A. Greenbaum, Jerome C. Lane, Emily von Scheven, Stacy P. Ardoin, Natasha M. Ruth P33 The steroid taper app: Making of a mobile app Jennifer M. P. Woo, Marsha M. Malloy, James A. Jegers, Dustin J. Hahn, Mary K. Hintermeyer, Stacey M. Martinetti, Gretchen R. Heckel, Elizabeth L. Roth-Wojcicki, Dominic O. C

Proceedings of the 2016 Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Scientific Meeting: Toronto, Canada. 14-17 April 2016

Table of Contents P1 Serologic evidence of gut-driven systemic inflammation in juvenile idiopathic arthritis Lampros Fotis, Nur Shaikh, Kevin Baszis, Anthony French, Phillip Tarr P2 Oral health and anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA) in juvenile idiopathic arthritis Sriharsha Grevich, Peggy Lee, Sarah Ringold, Brian Leroux, Hannah Leahey, Megan Yuasa, Jessica Foster, Jeremy Sokolove, Lauren Lahey, William Robinson, Joshua Newsom, Anne Stevens P3 Novel autoantigens for endothelial cell antibodies in pediatric rheumatic diseases identified by proteomics Rie Karasawa, Mayumi Tamaki, Megumi Tanaka, Toshiko Sato, Kazuo Yudoh, James N. Jarvis P4 Transcriptional profiling reveals monocyte signature associated with JIA patient poor response to methotrexate Halima Moncrieffe, Mark F. Bennett, Monica Tsoras, Lorie Luyrink, Huan Xu, Sampath Prahalad, Paula Morris, Jason Dare, Peter A. Nigrovic, Margalit Rosenkranz, Mara Becker, Kathleen M. O’Neil, Thomas Griffin, Daniel J. Lovell, Alexei A. Grom, Mario Medvedovic, Susan D. Thompson P5 A multi-dimensional genomic map for polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis Lisha Zhu, Kaiyu Jiang, Laiping Wong, Michael J Buck, Yanmin Chen, Halima Moncrieffe, Laura Brungs, Tao Liu, Ting Wang, James N Jarvis P6 Tocilizumab for treatment of children with refractory JIA Khaled Alsaeid, Jasim Alfailakawi, Hamid Alenezi, Hazim Alsaeed P7 Clinical characteristics of the initial patients enrolled in the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Registry Tim Beukelman, Marc Natter, Norm Ilowite, Kelly Mieszkalski, Grendel Burrell, Brian Best, Helen Bristow, Shannon Carr, Anne Dennos, Rachel Kaufmann, Yukiko Kimura, Laura Schanberg P8 Comparative performance of small and large clinical centers in a comprehensive pediatric rheumatology disease registry Peter R Blier P9 Clinical characteristics of children with membranous lupus nephritis: The Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance Legacy Registry Alexis Boneparth, Scott E. Wenderfer, L. Nandini Moorthy, Suhas M. Radhakrishna, Anna Carmela P. Sagcal-Gironella, Emily von Scheven P10 Rituximab use in pediatric lupus anticoagulant hypoprothrombinemia syndrome - a two center experience Kader Cetin Gedik, Salma Siddique, Cassyanne L. Aguiar, Doruk Erkan P11 Predictors of complementary and alternative medicine use and response in children with musculoskeletal conditions Ezra Cohen, Yvonne Lee, Michelle Dossett, Darshan Mehta, Roger Davis P12 Comparison of pediatric rheumatology and nephrology survey results for the treatment of refractory proliferative lupus nephritis and renal flare in juvenile SLE Mileka Gilbert, Beatrice Goilav, Esra Meidan, Joyce Hsu, Alexis Boneparth, Anabelle Chua, Stacy Ardoin, Scott E. Wenderfer, Emily Von Scheven, Natasha M. Ruth P13 Transitioning lupus patients from pediatric to adult rheumatology Joyce Hui-Yuen, Kader Cetin Gedik, Liza Bermudez, Ashlea Cook, Lisa Imundo, Amy Starr, Andrew Eichenfield, Anca Askanase P14 The systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis cohort of the Childhood Arthritis & Rheumatology Research Alliance Registry Ginger Janow, Laura E. Schanberg, Soko Setoguchi, Victor Hasselblad, Elizabeth D. Mellins, Rayfel Schneider, Yukiko Kimura, The CARRA Legacy Registry Investigators P15 Results of the pilot study of the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) consensus treatment plans for new-onset systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis Yukiko Kimura, Sriharsha Grevich, Timothy Beukelman, Esi Morgan, T Brent Graham, Maria Ibarra, Yonit Sterba Ruas, Marisa Klein-Gitelman, Karen Onel, Sampath Prahalad, Marilynn Punaro, Sarah Ringold, Dana Toib, Heather Van Mater, Jennifer E. Weiss, Pamela F. Weiss, Kelly Mieszkalski, Laura E. Schanberg P16 A systemic review of pain relief modalities in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: First step in developing a novel decision support intervention Timothy S. H. Kwok, Jacinthe Bisaillon, Christine Smith, Lucie Brosseau, Jennifer Stinson, Adam M. Huber, Ciaran M. Duffy, Karine Toupin April P17 Barriers and facilitators to care retention for pediatric systemic lupus erythematous patients in South Africa: A qualitative study Laura B Lewandowski, Christiaan Scott P18 Evaluating the feasibility of conducting comparative effectiveness studies in juvenile Localized Scleroderma (jLS) Suzanne C. Li, Kathryn S. Torok, C. Egla Rabinovich, Sandy D. Hong, Mara L Becker, Fatma Dedeoglu, Maria F. Ibarra, Polly J Ferguson, Rob C. Fuhbrigge, Katie G. Stewart, Elena Pope, Ronald M. Laxer, Thomas G. Mason, Gloria C. Higgins, Xiaohu Li, Marilynn G. Punaro, George Tomlinson, Eleanor Pullenayegum, John Matelski, Laura Schanberg, Brian M. Feldman P19 Tonsillar histology in patients with periodic fever, aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis, adenitis (PFAPA) syndrome Kalpana Manthiram, Hernan Correa, Kathryn Edwards P20 Clinical course of juvenile dermatomyositis presenting as skin predominant disease Edward J. Oberle, Michelle Bayer, Dominic O. Co, Hatice Ezgi Baris, Yvonne Chiu, Adam Huber, Susan Kim P21 A Survey of musculoskeletal ultrasound practices of pediatric rheumatologists in North America Edward J Oberle, Timothy Beukelman P22 Assessment, classification and treatment of calcinosis as a complication of juvenile dermatomyositis: A survey of pediatric rheumatologists by the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance Amir B. Orandi, Kevin W. Baszis, Vikas Dharnidharka, Mark F. Hoeltzel, for the CARRA JDM Committee P23 CARRA dermatomyositis CTP pilot study Ann Reed, Adam Huber, George Tomlinson, Eleanor Pullenayegum, John Matelski, Y. Ingrid Goh, Laura Schanberg, Brian M. Feldman P24 Unexpectedly high incidences and prolonged disease activity in children with chronic non-bacterial osteomyelitis (CNO) as compared to bacterial osteomyelitis Anja Schnabel, Ursula Range, Gabriele Hahn, Timo Siepmann, Reinhard Berner, Christian Michael Hedrich P25 Juvenile systemic sclerosis cohort within the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Legacy Registry: Follow up characteristics Brandi Stevens, Kathryn S. Torok, Suzanne Li, Nicole Hershey, Megan Curran, Gloria Higgins, Katharine Moore, Egla Rabinovich, Anne M. Stevens, for the CARRA Registry Investigators P26 Development and usability testing of an iPad and desktop psycho-educational game for children with Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis and their parents Jennifer Stinson, Mark Connelly, Adam Huber, Nadia Luca, Lynn Spiegel, Argerie Tsimicalis, Stephanie Luca, Naweed Tajuddin, Roberta Berard, Julia Barsalou, Sarah Campillo, Paul Dancey, Ciaran Duffy, Brian Feldman, Nicole Johnson, Patrick McGrath, Natalie Shiff, Shirley Tse, Lori Tucker, Charles Victor P27 iCanCopeTM: User-centred design and development of a smartphone app to support self-management for youth with arthritis pain Jennifer Stinson, Chitra Lalloo, Lauren Harris, Joseph Cafazzo, Lynn Spiegel, Brian Feldman, Nadia Luca, Ronald Laxer P28 Accessing pediatric rheumatology care: Despite barriers, few parents prefer telemedicine Danielle R. Bullock, Richard K. Vehe, Lei Zhang, Colleen K. Correll1 P29 Exploration of factors contributing to time to achieve clinically inactive disease (CID) in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA): A preliminary report Suhas Ganguli, Max Shenberger, Ritesh Korumilli, Beth Gottlieb P30 Pediatric rheumatology referral patterns: Presenting complaints of new patients at a large, urban academic center Martha Rodriguez, Deirdre de Ranieri, Karen Onel, Linda Wagner-Weiner, Melissa Tesher P31 Quality improvement (QI) initiatives in childhood systemic lupus erythematosus (cSLE) Elizabeth Roth Wojcicki, Kristyn L. Maletta, Dominic O. Co, Marsha Malloy, Sarah Thomson, Judyann C. Olson P32 Proliferative lupus nephritis in juvenile SLE: Support from the pediatric nephrology community for the definitions of responsiveness and flare in the 2012 consensus treatment plans Scott E. Wenderfer, Mileka Gilbert, Joyce Hsu, Sangeeta Sule, Tamar B. Rubinstein, Beatrice Goilav, Daryl M. Okamura, Annabelle Chua, Laurence A. Greenbaum, Jerome C. Lane, Emily von Scheven, Stacy P. Ardoin, Natasha M. Ruth P33 The steroid taper app: Making of a mobile app Jennifer M. P. Woo, Marsha M. Malloy, James A. Jegers, Dustin J. Hahn, Mary K. Hintermeyer, Stacey M. Martinetti, Gretchen R. Heckel, Elizabeth L. Roth-Wojcicki, Dominic O. C

Proceedings of the 2016 Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Scientific Meeting

Table of Contents P1 Serologic evidence of gut-driven systemic inflammation in juvenile idiopathic arthritis Lampros Fotis, Nur Shaikh, Kevin Baszis, Anthony French, Phillip Tarr P2 Oral health and anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA) in juvenile idiopathic arthritis Sriharsha Grevich, Peggy Lee, Sarah Ringold, Brian Leroux, Hannah Leahey, Megan Yuasa, Jessica Foster, Jeremy Sokolove, Lauren Lahey, William Robinson, Joshua Newsom, Anne Stevens P3 Novel autoantigens for endothelial cell antibodies in pediatric rheumatic diseases identified by proteomics Rie Karasawa, Mayumi Tamaki, Megumi Tanaka, Toshiko Sato, Kazuo Yudoh, James N. Jarvis P4 Transcriptional profiling reveals monocyte signature associated with JIA patient poor response to methotrexate Halima Moncrieffe, Mark F. Bennett, Monica Tsoras, Lorie Luyrink, Huan Xu, Sampath Prahalad, Paula Morris, Jason Dare, Peter A. Nigrovic, Margalit Rosenkranz, Mara Becker, Kathleen M. O’Neil, Thomas Griffin, Daniel J. Lovell, Alexei A. Grom, Mario Medvedovic, Susan D. Thompson P5 A multi-dimensional genomic map for polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis Lisha Zhu, Kaiyu Jiang, Laiping Wong, Michael J Buck, Yanmin Chen, Halima Moncrieffe, Laura Brungs, Tao Liu, Ting Wang, James N Jarvis P6 Tocilizumab for treatment of children with refractory JIA Khaled Alsaeid, Jasim Alfailakawi, Hamid Alenezi, Hazim Alsaeed P7 Clinical characteristics of the initial patients enrolled in the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Registry Tim Beukelman, Marc Natter, Norm Ilowite, Kelly Mieszkalski, Grendel Burrell, Brian Best, Helen Bristow, Shannon Carr, Anne Dennos, Rachel Kaufmann, Yukiko Kimura, Laura Schanberg P8 Comparative performance of small and large clinical centers in a comprehensive pediatric rheumatology disease registry Peter R Blier P9 Clinical characteristics of children with membranous lupus nephritis: The Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance Legacy Registry Alexis Boneparth, Scott E. Wenderfer, L. Nandini Moorthy, Suhas M. Radhakrishna, Anna Carmela P. Sagcal-Gironella, Emily von Scheven P10 Rituximab use in pediatric lupus anticoagulant hypoprothrombinemia syndrome - a two center experience Kader Cetin Gedik, Salma Siddique, Cassyanne L. Aguiar, Doruk Erkan P11 Predictors of complementary and alternative medicine use and response in children with musculoskeletal conditions Ezra Cohen, Yvonne Lee, Michelle Dossett, Darshan Mehta, Roger Davis P12 Comparison of pediatric rheumatology and nephrology survey results for the treatment of refractory proliferative lupus nephritis and renal flare in juvenile SLE Mileka Gilbert, Beatrice Goilav, Esra Meidan, Joyce Hsu, Alexis Boneparth, Anabelle Chua, Stacy Ardoin, Scott E. Wenderfer, Emily Von Scheven, Natasha M. Ruth P13 Transitioning lupus patients from pediatric to adult rheumatology Joyce Hui-Yuen, Kader Cetin Gedik, Liza Bermudez, Ashlea Cook, Lisa Imundo, Amy Starr, Andrew Eichenfield, Anca Askanase P14 The systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis cohort of the Childhood Arthritis & Rheumatology Research Alliance Registry Ginger Janow, Laura E. Schanberg, Soko Setoguchi, Victor Hasselblad, Elizabeth D. Mellins, Rayfel Schneider, Yukiko Kimura, The CARRA Legacy Registry Investigators P15 Results of the pilot study of the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) consensus treatment plans for new-onset systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis Yukiko Kimura, Sriharsha Grevich, Timothy Beukelman, Esi Morgan, T Brent Graham, Maria Ibarra, Yonit Sterba Ruas, Marisa Klein-Gitelman, Karen Onel, Sampath Prahalad, Marilynn Punaro, Sarah Ringold, Dana Toib, Heather Van Mater, Jennifer E. Weiss, Pamela F. Weiss, Kelly Mieszkalski, Laura E. Schanberg P16 A systemic review of pain relief modalities in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: First step in developing a novel decision support intervention Timothy S. H. Kwok, Jacinthe Bisaillon, Christine Smith, Lucie Brosseau, Jennifer Stinson, Adam M. Huber, Ciaran M. Duffy, Karine Toupin April P17 Barriers and facilitators to care retention for pediatric systemic lupus erythematous patients in South Africa: A qualitative study Laura B Lewandowski, Christiaan Scott P18 Evaluating the feasibility of conducting comparative effectiveness studies in juvenile Localized Scleroderma (jLS) Suzanne C. Li, Kathryn S. Torok, C. Egla Rabinovich, Sandy D. Hong, Mara L Becker, Fatma Dedeoglu, Maria F. Ibarra, Polly J Ferguson, Rob C. Fuhbrigge, Katie G. Stewart, Elena Pope, Ronald M. Laxer, Thomas G. Mason, Gloria C. Higgins, Xiaohu Li, Marilynn G. Punaro, George Tomlinson, Eleanor Pullenayegum, John Matelski, Laura Schanberg, Brian M. Feldman P19 Tonsillar histology in patients with periodic fever, aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis, adenitis (PFAPA) syndrome Kalpana Manthiram, Hernan Correa, Kathryn Edwards P20 Clinical course of juvenile dermatomyositis presenting as skin predominant disease Edward J. Oberle, Michelle Bayer, Dominic O. Co, Hatice Ezgi Baris, Yvonne Chiu, Adam Huber, Susan Kim P21 A Survey of musculoskeletal ultrasound practices of pediatric rheumatologists in North America Edward J Oberle, Timothy Beukelman P22 Assessment, classification and treatment of calcinosis as a complication of juvenile dermatomyositis: A survey of pediatric rheumatologists by the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance Amir B. Orandi, Kevin W. Baszis, Vikas Dharnidharka, Mark F. Hoeltzel, for the CARRA JDM Committee P23 CARRA dermatomyositis CTP pilot study Ann Reed, Adam Huber, George Tomlinson, Eleanor Pullenayegum, John Matelski, Y. Ingrid Goh, Laura Schanberg, Brian M. Feldman P24 Unexpectedly high incidences and prolonged disease activity in children with chronic non-bacterial osteomyelitis (CNO) as compared to bacterial osteomyelitis Anja Schnabel, Ursula Range, Gabriele Hahn, Timo Siepmann, Reinhard Berner, Christian Michael Hedrich P25 Juvenile systemic sclerosis cohort within the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Legacy Registry: Follow up characteristics Brandi Stevens, Kathryn S. Torok, Suzanne Li, Nicole Hershey, Megan Curran, Gloria Higgins, Katharine Moore, Egla Rabinovich, Anne M. Stevens, for the CARRA Registry Investigators P26 Development and usability testing of an iPad and desktop psycho-educational game for children with Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis and their parents Jennifer Stinson, Mark Connelly, Adam Huber, Nadia Luca, Lynn Spiegel, Argerie Tsimicalis, Stephanie Luca, Naweed Tajuddin, Roberta Berard, Julia Barsalou, Sarah Campillo, Paul Dancey, Ciaran Duffy, Brian Feldman, Nicole Johnson, Patrick McGrath, Natalie Shiff, Shirley Tse, Lori Tucker, Charles Victor P27 iCanCope TM: User-centred design and development of a smartphone app to support self-management for youth with arthritis pain Jennifer Stinson, Chitra Lalloo, Lauren Harris, Joseph Cafazzo, Lynn Spiegel, Brian Feldman, Nadia Luca, Ronald Laxer P28 Accessing pediatric rheumatology care: Despite barriers, few parents prefer telemedicine Danielle R. Bullock, Richard K. Vehe, Lei Zhang, Colleen K. Correll1 P29 Exploration of factors contributing to time to achieve clinically inactive disease (CID) in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA): A preliminary report Suhas Ganguli, Max Shenberger, Ritesh Korumilli, Beth Gottlieb P30 Pediatric rheumatology referral patterns: Presenting complaints of new patients at a large, urban academic center Martha Rodriguez, Deirdre de Ranieri, Karen Onel, Linda Wagner-Weiner, Melissa Tesher P31 Quality improvement (QI) initiatives in childhood systemic lupus erythematosus (cSLE) Elizabeth Roth Wojcicki, Kristyn L. Maletta, Dominic O. Co, Marsha Malloy, Sarah Thomson, Judyann C. Olson P32 Proliferative lupus nephritis in juvenile SLE: Support from the pediatric nephrology community for the definitions of responsiveness and flare in the 2012 consensus treatment plans Scott E. Wenderfer, Mileka Gilbert, Joyce Hsu, Sangeeta Sule, Tamar B. Rubinstein, Beatrice Goilav, Daryl M. Okamura, Annabelle Chua, Laurence A. Greenbaum, Jerome C. Lane, Emily von Scheven, Stacy P. Ardoin, Natasha M. Ruth P33 The steroid taper app: Making of a mobile app Jennifer M. P. Woo, Marsha M. Malloy, James A. Jegers, Dustin J. Hahn, Mary K. Hintermeyer, Stacey M. Martinetti, Gretchen R. Heckel, Elizabeth L. Roth-Wojcicki, Dominic O. C

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p