Predicción de la expansión hacia el norte de la distribución de una especie intermareal debido a alteraciones climáticas

Accurate distributional models can be used to reliably predict the response of organisms to climatic changes. Though such models have been extensively applied to terrestrial organisms, they have hardly ever been applied to the marine environment. Recent changes in the distribution of the marine gastropod Patella rustica (L.) were previously modelled with Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and the results revealed that increases in temperature were the major driver of those changes. However, the accuracy scores during the validation of the model were unsatisfactory, preventing its use for forecasting purposes. To fulfil this objective, in the present study a more robust method, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), was employed to produce a model suited to forecasting changes in the distribution of P. rustica. Results confirmed that the ANN model behaved better than the CART, and that it could be used for forecasting future distributional scenarios. The model forecasts that by the 2020s P. rustica is likely to expand its range at least 1000 km northwards. These results should be interpreted with caution considering the dispersal limitations of this species, but if such an expansion took place, major changes in the colonized ecosystems are expected due to the key role of limpets in intertidal communities.Los modelos de distribución de especies son una herramienta utilizada para predecir con exactitud la respuesta de organismos a las alteraciones climáticas. Aunque estos modelos han sido frecuentemente aplicados a organismos terrestres, casi nunca han sido aplicados en ambientes marinos. Estudios sobre la distribución del gasterópodo Patella rustica (L.) utilizando el método de árboles de clasificación y regresión (Classification and Regression Tree: CART) revelaron que el aumento de temperatura sería el principal impulsor de estos cambios. Sin embargo, la precisión de este modelo no permitió la predicción de la distribución de P. rustica en el siglo XXI. En el presente trabajo presentamos un método más robusto, las redes neuronales artificiales (Artificial Neural Networks: ANN), para producir un modelo adecuado que permita predecir futuros cambios en la distribución de P. rustica. Los resultados confirman que las ANN pueden ser utilizadas para la previsión de futuros escenarios de distribución y muestran que en la década de 2020 esta especie podría ampliar su rango de distribución al menos 1.000 kilómetros en dirección norte. Estos resultados deben ser interpretados teniendo en cuenta las limitaciones de dispersión de este organismo, pero si esa expansión se produce, se esperan grandes cambios en los ecosistemas debido al papel fundamental de las lapas en las comunidades intermareales

Spin exchange in elastic e-O_2 collisions

Recent experiments using polarized electron beams have shown that spin exchange effects for elastic collisions with O_2 and NO are much smaller than for Na atoms. We report calculated spin-flip differential cross sections for elastic collisions of polarized electrons with O_2 in agreement with experiment. In general, we can attribute the large variation of the spin-flip differential cross sections to resonances and interference effects. Such features arising from interference, however, may be washed out in the molecular case due to the average over orientations. Calculations with oriented O_2 molecules show strong exchange effects as for Na

DNA repair genes polymorphisms and genetic susceptibility to Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms in a Portuguese population: the role of base excision repair genes polymorphisms

Sob uma licença CC-BY-NC-ND - http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/The role of base excision repair (BER) genes in Philadelphia-negative (PN)-myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) susceptibility was evaluated by genotyping eight polymorphisms [apurinic/apyrimidinic endodeoxyribonuclease 1, mutY DNA glycosylase, earlier mutY homolog (E. coli) (MUTYH), 8‑oxoguanine DNA glycosylase 1, poly (ADP‑ribose) polymerase (PARP) 1, PARP4 and X‑ray repair cross‑complementing 1 (XRCC1)] in a case‑control study involving 133 Caucasian Portuguese patients. The results did not reveal a correlation between individual BER polymorphisms and PN‑MPNs when considered as a whole. However, stratification for essential thrombocythaemia revealed i) borderline effect/tendency to increased risk when carrying at least one variant allele for XRCC1_399 single‑nucleotide polymorphism (SNP); ii) decreased risk for Janus kinase 2‑positive patients carrying at least one variant allele for XRCC1_399 SNP; and iii) decreased risk in females carrying at least one variant allele for MUTYH SNP. Combination of alleles demonstrated an increased risk to PN‑MPNs for one specific haplogroup. These findings may provide evidence for gene variants in susceptibility to MPNs. Indeed, common variants in DNA repair genes may hamper the capacity to repair DNA, thus increasing cancer susceptibility.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Observational constraints on interacting quintessence models

We determine the range of parameter space of Interacting Quintessence Models that best fits the recent WMAP measurements of Cosmic Microwave Background temperature anisotropies. We only consider cosmological models with zero spatial curvature. We show that if the quintessence scalar field decays into cold dark matter at a rate that brings the ratio of matter to dark energy constant at late times,the cosmological parameters required to fit the CMB data are: \Omega_x = 0.43 \pm 0.12, baryon fraction \Omega_b = 0.08 \pm 0.01, slope of the matter power spectrum at large scals n_s = 0.98 \pm 0.02 and Hubble constant H_0 = 56 \pm 4 km/s/Mpc. The data prefers a dark energy component with a dimensionless decay parameter c^2 =0.005 and non-interacting models are consistent with the data only at the 99% confidence level. Using the Bayesian Information Criteria we show that this exra parameter fits the data better than models with no interaction. The quintessence equation of state parameter is less constrained; i.e., the data set an upper limit w_x \leq -0.86 at the same level of significance. When the WMAP anisotropy data are combined with supernovae data, the density parameter of dark energy increases to \Omega_x \simeq 0.68 while c^2 augments to 6.3 \times 10^{-3}. Models with quintessence decaying into dark matter provide a clean explanation for the coincidence problem and are a viable cosmological model, compatible with observations of the CMB, with testable predictions. Accurate measurements of baryon fraction and/or of matter density independent of the CMB data, would support/disprove these models.Comment: 16 pages, Revtex4, 5 eps figures, to appear in Physical Review

Modeling and Optimization of High-Performance Polymer Membrane Reactor Systems for Water–Gas Shift Reaction Applications

In production of electricity from coal, integrated gasification combined cycle plants typically operate with conventional packed bed reactors for the water-gas shift reaction, and a Selexol process for carbon dioxide removal. Implementation of membrane reactors in place of these two process units provides advantages such as increased carbon monoxide conversion, facilitated CO2 removal/sequestration and process intensification. Proposed H2-selective membranes for these reactors are typically of palladium alloy or ceramic due to their outstanding gas separation properties; however, on an industrial scale, the cost of such materials may become exorbitant. High-performance polymeric membranes, such as polybenzimidazoles (PBIs), present themselves as low-cost alternatives with gas separation properties suitable for use in such membrane reactors, given their significant thermal and chemical stability. In this work, the performance of a class of high-performance polymeric membranes is assessed for use in integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) units operated with carbon capture, subject to constraints on equipment and process streams. Several systems are considered for use with the polymeric membranes, including membrane reactors and permeative stage reactors. Based upon models developed for each configuration, constrained optimization problems are formulated which seek to more efficiently employ membrane surface area. From the optimization results, the limiting membrane parameter for achieving all carbon capture and H2 production specifications for water–gas shift reactor applications is determined to be the selectivity, αH2{CO2 , and thus a minimum value of this parameter which satisfies all the constraints is identified for each analyzed configuration. For a CO2 capture value of 90%, this value is found to be α = 61 for the membrane reactor and the 3-stage permeative stage reactor and α = 62 for the 2-stage permeative stage reactor. The proposed systems approach has the potential to be employed to identify performance limitations associated with membrane materials to guide the development of future polymeric and other advanced materials with desired membrane characteristics for energy and environmental applications

Apoptosis deregulation expression in Philadelphia-negative Myeloproliferative Neoplasms in a Portuguese population

Poster presented at the 7th International Conference on Myeloproliferative Neoplasms / European School of Haematology. 27-29 October 2016. Estoril, PortugalObjectives: evaluate the role of apoptosis SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) in PN-­‐MPNs (Philadelphia-­chromosome negative chronic myeloproliferative neoplasmssusceptibility).N/

Cooperation between expert knowledge and data mining discovered knowledge: Lessons learned

Expert systems are built from knowledge traditionally elicited from the human expert. It is precisely knowledge elicitation from the expert that is the bottleneck in expert system construction. On the other hand, a data mining system, which automatically extracts knowledge, needs expert guidance on the successive decisions to be made in each of the system phases. In this context, expert knowledge and data mining discovered knowledge can cooperate, maximizing their individual capabilities: data mining discovered knowledge can be used as a complementary source of knowledge for the expert system, whereas expert knowledge can be used to guide the data mining process. This article summarizes different examples of systems where there is cooperation between expert knowledge and data mining discovered knowledge and reports our experience of such cooperation gathered from a medical diagnosis project called Intelligent Interpretation of Isokinetics Data, which we developed. From that experience, a series of lessons were learned throughout project development. Some of these lessons are generally applicable and others pertain exclusively to certain project types

Fine-scale survey of intertidal macroalgae reveals recent changes in a cold-water biogeographic stronghold

Global warming has been causing severe impacts on marine ecosystems, a notorious one being shifts in the geographical ranges of species. The north-western coast of the Iberian Peninsula is an especially interesting zone to study distributional shifts as it has a strong latitudinal thermal gradient, is influenced by the Canary upwelling system (which partially cancels coastal warming) and holds some of the most diverse macroalgae communities in Europe. Notably, it is within this region that many cold-water species, common in northern Europe, have their southernmost distribution refuge. Recent studies hypothesize that the environmental conditions may be nonetheless changing and already threatening this biodiversity hotspot. The main goal of this study was to carry out a fine-scale assessment of the distributional limits of several macroalgae in North-western Iberia, as well as identify possible population and range shifts using historical data (2001-2005) as reference. In addition, non-indigenous species were also surveyed. We also assessed if the regions of (i) Galicia, (ii) Northern Portugal, and (iii) Central Portugal displayed distinctive characters regarding macroalgae composition and abundance. We identified an increase in abundance of some non-indigenous macroalgae as well as a decrease in the abundance of some cold-water species. In the most severe cases, cold-water species were extirpated along hundreds of km. The compounded effect of the decrease in the abundance of cold-water species and the increase in the abundance of non-indigenous species is leading to the homogenization of macroalgae communities in north-western Iberia

The role of apoptosis polymorphisms in individual susceptibility to Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms

Poster presented at the 18th Annual Reunion of Sociedade Portuguesa de Genética Humana. Lisboa, 2014