Model documentation, chapter 4

The modeling groups are listed along with a brief description of the respective models

Downward wave reflection as a mechanism for the stratosphere-troposphere response to the 11-year Solar Cycle

The effects of solar activity on the stratospheric waveguides and downward reflection of planetary waves during northern early to mid- winter are examined. Under high solar (HS) conditions enhanced westerly winds in the subtropical upper stratosphere and the associated changes in the zonal wind curvature led to an altered waveguide geometry across the winter period in the upper stratosphere. In particular, the condition for barotropic instability was more frequently met at 1 hPa near the polar night jet centred at ~55°N. In early winter the corresponding change in wave forcing was characterized by a vertical dipole pattern of the Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergent anomalies in the high-latitude upper stratosphere accompanied by poleward E-P flux anomalies. These wave forcing anomalies corresponded with negative vertical shear of zonal mean winds and the formation of a vertical reflecting surface. Enhanced downward E-P flux anomalies appeared below the negative shear zone; they coincided with more frequent occurrence of negative daily heat fluxes and associated with eastward acceleration and downward group velocity. These downward reflected wave anomalies had a detectable effect on the vertical structure of planetary waves during November to January. The associated changes in tropospheric geopotential height contributed to a more positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in January and February. These results suggest that downward reflection may act as a ‘top-down’ pathway by which the effects of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the upper stratosphere can be transmitted to the troposphere

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/full/ncomms8535.html.Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and also by the EU project SPECS funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme under the grant agreement 308378 (Met Office Hadley Centre authors), by the NERC National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) Climate directorate (L.J.G. and A.C.M.), an ERC ACCI grant (A.C.M) and an AXA Postdoctoral Fellowship (A.C.M.)

Sixteen Months “From Square One”: The Process of Forming an Interprofessional Clinical Teaching Team

Background: Descriptions of interprofessional education (IPE) programs and teacher competencies exist, but limited research has been undertaken about the process of IPE teaching team formation. This research project examined how pedagogically naïve clinicians of different disciplines initially formed an IPE teaching team.Methods and Findings: A case study approach was undertaken with data collected over the first sixteen months of an IPE program. Data included: audio recordings, transcripts, and field notes from nine individual teacher interviews, two teaching team focus groups, five student focus groups, and eight summary reports. Data analysis using a grounded theory constant comparison approach revealed themes relating to the formation, development, and evolving sophistication of the teaching team from functioning, to co-ordinating, to co-operating, and finally to collaborating. These stages were influenced by four external factors: remote rural context, Hauora Māori principles, personal attributes, and teacher development.Conclusions: Formation of interprofessional clinical teaching teams requires educational preparation, time learning to work with each other, and trust development, with a number of local contextual factors influencing this process. Teaching team formation paralleled Wegner’s Community of Practice model where shared vision supported the adoption of an increasingly complex IPE pedagogy

Correlation between circulating tumour DNA and metabolic tumour burden in metastatic melanoma patients

Background: Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) may serve as a measure of tumour burden and a useful tool for non-invasive monitoring of cancer. However, ctDNA is not always detectable in patients at time of diagnosis of metastatic disease. Therefore, there is a need to understand the correlation between ctDNA levels and the patients\u27 overall metabolic tumour burden (MTB). Methods: Thirty-two treatment naïve metastatic melanoma patients were included in the study. MTB and metabolic tumour volume (MTV) was measured by 18F-fluoro-D-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG PET/CT). Plasma ctDNA was quantified using droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). Results: CtDNA was detected in 23 of 32 patients. Overall, a significant correlation was observed between ctDNA levels and MTB (

Three Novel Pigmentation Mutants Generated by Genome-Wide Random ENU Mutagenesis in the Mouse

Three mutant mice with pigmentation phenotypes were recovered from a genomewide random mouse chemical mutagenesis study. White toes (Whto; MGI:1861986), Belly spot and white toes (Bswt; MGI:2152776) and Dark footpads 2 (Dfp2; MGI:1861991) were identified following visual inspection of progeny from a male exposed to the point mutagen ethylnitrosourea (ENU). In order to rapidly localize the causative mutations, genome-wide linkage scans were performed on pooled DNA samples from backcross animals for each mutant line. Whto was mapped to proximal mouse chromosome (Mmu) 7 between Cen (the centromere) and D7Mit112 (8.0 cM from the centromere), Bswt was mapped to centric Mmul between D1Mit214 (32.1 cM) and D1Mit480 (32.8 cM) and Dfp2 was mapped to proximalMmu4 between Cen and D4Mit18 (5.2 cM). Whto, Bswt and Dfp2 may provide novel starting points in furthering the elucidation of genetic and biochemical pathways relevant to pigmentation and associated biological processes

Acetylcysteine has No Mechanistic Effect in Patients at Risk of Contrast-Induced Nephropathy - A Failure of Academic Clinical Science

Contrast‐induced nephropathy (CIN) is a major complication of imaging in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The publication of an academic randomized controlled trial (RCT; n = 83) reporting oral (N)‐acetylcysteine (NAC) to reduce CIN led to > 70 clinical trials, 23 systematic reviews, and 2 large RCTs showing no benefit. However, no mechanistic studies were conducted to determine how NAC might work; proposed mechanisms included renal artery vasodilatation and antioxidant boosting. We evaluated the proposed mechanisms of NAC action in participants with healthy and diseased kidneys. Four substudies were performed. Two randomized, double‐blind, placebo‐controlled, three‐period crossover studies (n = 8) assessed the effect of oral and intravenous (i.v.) NAC in healthy kidneys in the presence/absence of iso‐osmolar contrast (iodixanol). A third crossover study in patients with CKD stage III (CKD3) (n = 8) assessed the effect of oral and i.v. NAC without contrast. A three‐arm randomized, double‐blind, placebo‐controlled parallel‐group study, recruiting patients with CKD3 (n = 66) undergoing coronary angiography, assessed the effect of oral and i.v. NAC in the presence of contrast. We recorded systemic (blood pressure and heart rate) and renal (renal blood flow (RBF) and glomerular filtration rate (GFR)) hemodynamics, and antioxidant status, plus biomarkers of renal injury in patients with CKD3 undergoing angiography. Primary outcome for all studies was RBF over 8 hours after the start of i.v. NAC/placebo. NAC at doses used in previous trials of renal prophylaxis was essentially undetectable in plasma after oral administration. In healthy volunteers, i.v. NAC, but not oral NAC, increased blood pressure (mean area under the curve (AUC) mean arterial pressure (MAP): mean difference 29 h⋅mmHg, P = 0.019 vs. placebo), heart rate (28 h⋅bpm, P < 0.001), and RBF (714 h⋅mL/min, 8.0% increase, P = 0.006). Renal vasodilatation also occurred in the presence of contrast (RBF 917 h⋅mL/min, 12% increase, P = 0.005). In patients with CKD3 without contrast, only a rise in heart rate (34 h⋅bpm, P = 0.010) and RBF (288 h⋅mL/min, 6.0% increase, P = 0.001) occurred with i.v. NAC, with no significant effect on blood pressure (MAP rise 26 h⋅mmHg, P = 0.156). Oral NAC showed no effect. In patients with CKD3 receiving contrast, i.v. NAC increased blood pressure (MAP rise 52 h⋅mmHg, P = 0.008) but had no effect on RBF (151 h⋅mL/min, 3.0% increase, P = 0.470), GFR (29 h⋅mL/min/1.73m², P = 0.122), or markers of renal injury. Neither i.v. nor oral NAC affected plasma antioxidant status. We found oral NAC to be poorly absorbed and have no reno‐protective effects. Intravenous, not oral, NAC caused renal artery vasodilatation in healthy volunteers but offered no protection to patients with CKD3 at risk of CIN. These findings emphasize the importance of mechanistic clinical studies before progressing to RCTs for novel interventions. Thousands were recruited to academic clinical trials without the necessary mechanistic studies being performed to confirm the approach had any chance of working

Historical simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6

We describe and evaluate historical simulations which use the third Hadley Centre Global Environment Model in the Global Coupled configuration 3.1 (HadGEM3-GC3.1) model and which form part of the UK's contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. These simulations, run at two resolutions, respond to historically evolving forcings such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols, land use, and ozone concentrations. We assess the response of the simulations to these historical forcings and compare against the observational record. This includes the evolution of global mean surface temperature, ocean heat content, sea ice extent, ice sheet mass balance, permafrost extent, snow cover, North Atlantic sea surface temperature and circulation, and decadal precipitation. We find that the simulated time evolution of global mean surface temperature broadly follows the observed record but with important quantitative differences which we find are most likely attributable to strong effective radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols and a weak pattern of sea surface temperature response in the low to middle latitudes to volcanic eruptions. We also find evidence that anthropogenic aerosol forcings play a role in driving the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which are key features of the North Atlantic ocean. Overall, the model historical simulations show many features in common with the observed record over the period 1850–2014 and so provide a basis for future in-depth study of recent climate change

Preindustrial control simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6

Pre‐industrial control simulations with the HadGEM3‐GC3.1 climate model are presented at two resolutions. These are N216ORCA025, which has a horizontal resolution of 60km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, and N96ORCA1, which has a horizontal resolution of 130km in the atmosphere and 1° in the ocean. The aim of this study is to document the climate variability in these simulations, make comparisons against present‐day observations (albeit under different forcing), and discuss differences arising due to resolution. In terms of interannual variability in the leading modes of climate variability the two resolutions behave generally very similarly. Notable differences are in the westward extent of El‐Niño and the pattern of Atlantic multidecadal variability, in which N216ORCA025 compares more favourably to observations, and in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which is far too weak in N216ORCA025. In the North Atlantic region, N216ORCA025 has a stronger and deeper AMOC, which compares well against observations, and reduced biases in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG). These simulations are being provided to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and provide a baseline against which further forced experiments may be assessed