A large deviations principle for the Maki-Thompson rumour model

We consider the stochastic model for the propagation of a rumour within a population which was formulated by Maki and Thompson. Sudbury established that, as the population size tends to infinity, the proportion of the population never hearing the rumour converges in probability to $0.2032$. Watson later derived the asymptotic normality of a suitably scaled version of this proportion. We prove a corresponding large deviations principle, with an explicit formula for the rate function.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figure

Laws of large numbers for the frog model on the complete graph

The frog model is a stochastic model for the spreading of an epidemic on a graph, in which a dormant particle starts to perform a simple random walk on the graph and to awake other particles, once it becomes active. We study two versions of the frog model on the complete graph with $N + 1$ vertices. In the first version we consider, active particles have geometrically distributed lifetimes. In the second version, the displacement of each awakened particle lasts until it hits a vertex already visited by the process. For each model, we prove that as $N \to \infty$, the trajectory of the process is well approximated by a three-dimensional discrete-time dynamical system. We also study the long-term behavior of the corresponding deterministic systems

Limit theorems for a general stochastic rumour model

We study a general stochastic rumour model in which an ignorant individual has a certain probability of becoming a stifler immediately upon hearing the rumour. We refer to this special kind of stifler as an uninterested individual. Our model also includes distinct rates for meetings between two spreaders in which both become stiflers or only one does, so that particular cases are the classical Daley-Kendall and Maki-Thompson models. We prove a Law of Large Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem for the proportions of those who ultimately remain ignorant and those who have heard the rumour but become uninterested in it.Comment: 13 pages, to appear in SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematic

On the behaviour of a rumour process with random stifling

We propose a realistic generalization of the Maki-Thompson rumour model by assuming that each spreader ceases to propagate the rumour right after being involved in a random number of stifling experiences. We consider the process with a general initial configuration and establish the asymptotic behaviour (and its fluctuation) of the ultimate proportion of ignorants as the population size grows to $\infty$. Our approach leads to explicit formulas so that the limiting proportion of ignorants and its variance can be computed.Comment: 12 pages, to appear in Environmental Modelling & Softwar

A process of rumor scotching on finite populations

Rumor spreading is a ubiquitous phenomenon in social and technological networks. Traditional models consider that the rumor is propagated by pairwise interactions between spreaders and ignorants. Spreaders can become stiflers only after contacting spreaders or stiflers. Here we propose a model that considers the traditional assumptions, but stiflers are active and try to scotch the rumor to the spreaders. An analytical treatment based on the theory of convergence of density dependent Markov chains is developed to analyze how the final proportion of ignorants behaves asymptotically in a finite homogeneously mixing population. We perform Monte Carlo simulations in random graphs and scale-free networks and verify that the results obtained for homogeneously mixing populations can be approximated for random graphs, but are not suitable for scale-free networks. Furthermore, regarding the process on a heterogeneous mixing population, we obtain a set of differential equations that describes the time evolution of the probability that an individual is in each state. Our model can be applied to study systems in which informed agents try to stop the rumor propagation. In addition, our results can be considered to develop optimal information dissemination strategies and approaches to control rumor propagation.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figure

A new upper bound for the critical probability of the frog model on homogeneous trees

We consider the interacting particle system on the homogeneous tree of degree $(d + 1)$, known as frog model. In this model, active particles perform independent random walks, awakening all sleeping particles they encounter, and dying after a random number of jumps, with geometric distribution. We prove an upper bound for the critical parameter of survival of the model, which improves the previously known results. This upper bound was conjectured in a paper by Lebensztayn et al. ($J. Stat. Phys.$, 119(1-2), 331-345, 2005). We also give a closed formula for the upper bound

Rumour Processes on N

We study four discrete time stochastic systems on \bbN modeling processes of rumour spreading. The involved individuals can either have an active or a passive role, speaking up or asking for the rumour. The appetite in spreading or hearing the rumour is represented by a set of random variables whose distributions may depend on the individuals. Our goal is to understand - based on those random variables distribution - whether the probability of having an infinite set of individuals knowing the rumour is positive or not

Graciliano Ramos, por Otto Maria Carpeaux: 120 anos, homenagem em dobro

Apresento dois ensaios de Otto Maria Carpeaux a respeito de Graciliano Ramos, que permitem conhecer melhor o crítico e o romancista: uma homenagem aos sessenta anos do escritor e um artigo quando de sua morte. Revelando o interesse de Graciliano por Dante Alighieri, o crítico, com precisão e imagens poéticas, apreende a força regional e universal do romance moderno brasileiro criado pelo escritor, "círculo fechado" em que se fundem artisticamente vertentes sociais e introspectivas.I present two Otto Maria Carpeaux's essays about Graciliano Ramos, which permit us to know better the critic and the novelist: an homage to the writer's sixty years and an article published when he died. Showing Graciliano's interest on Dante Alighieri, Carpeaux, accurately and with poetic images, captures the regional and universal strength of the Brazilian modern novel created by the writer, "closed circle" in which the social and introspective faces artistically blend