Reconceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response

The need to adapt to climate change is now widely recognised as evidence of its impacts on social and natural systems grows and greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. Yet efforts to adapt to climate change, as reported in the literature over the last decade and in selected case studies, have not led to substantial rates of implementation of adaptation actions despite substantial investments in adaptation science. Moreover, implemented actions have been mostly incremental and focused on proximate causes; there are far fewer reports of more systemic or transformative actions. We found that the nature and effectiveness of responses was strongly influenced by framing. Recent decision-oriented approaches that aim to overcome this situation are framed within a "pathways" metaphor to emphasise the need for robust decision making within adaptive processes in the face of uncertainty and inter-temporal complexity. However, to date, such "adaptation pathways" approaches have mostly focused on contexts with clearly identified decision-makers and unambiguous goals; as a result, they generally assume prevailing governance regimes are conducive for adaptation and hence constrain responses to proximate causes of vulnerability. In this paper, we explore a broader conceptualisation of "adaptation pathways" that draws on 'pathways thinking' in the sustainable development domain to consider the implications of path dependency, interactions between adaptation plans, vested interests and global change, and situations where values, interests, or institutions constrain societal responses to change. This re-conceptualisation of adaptation pathways aims to inform decision makers about integrating incremental actions on proximate causes with the transformative aspects of societal change. Case studies illustrate what this might entail. The paper ends with a call for further exploration of theory, methods and procedures to operationalise this broader conceptualisation of adaptation

A phase 2, randomized, double-blind, placebo- controlled study of chemo-immunotherapy combination using motolimod with pegylated liposomal doxorubicin in recurrent or persistent ovarian cancer: a Gynecologic Oncology Group partners study.

A phase 2, randomized, placebo-controlled trial was conducted in women with recurrent epithelial ovarian carcinoma to evaluate the efficacy and safety of motolimod-a Toll-like receptor 8 (TLR8) agonist that stimulates robust innate immune responses-combined with pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD), a chemotherapeutic that induces immunogenic cell death. Women with ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal carcinoma were randomized 1 : 1 to receive PLD in combination with blinded motolimod or placebo. Randomization was stratified by platinum-free interval (≤6 versus >6-12 months) and Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG) performance status (0 versus 1). Treatment cycles were repeated every 28 days until disease progression. The addition of motolimod to PLD did not significantly improve overall survival (OS; log rank one-sided P = 0.923, HR = 1.22) or progression-free survival (PFS; log rank one-sided P = 0.943, HR = 1.21). The combination was well tolerated, with no synergistic or unexpected serious toxicity. Most patients experienced adverse events of fatigue, anemia, nausea, decreased white blood cells, and constipation. In pre-specified subgroup analyses, motolimod-treated patients who experienced injection site reactions (ISR) had a lower risk of death compared with those who did not experience ISR. Additionally, pre-treatment in vitro responses of immune biomarkers to TLR8 stimulation predicted OS outcomes in patients receiving motolimod on study. Immune score (tumor infiltrating lymphocytes; TIL), TLR8 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, mutational status in BRCA and other DNA repair genes, and autoantibody biomarkers did not correlate with OS or PFS. The addition of motolimod to PLD did not improve clinical outcomes compared with placebo. However, subset analyses identified statistically significant differences in the OS of motolimod-treated patients on the basis of ISR and in vitro immune responses. Collectively, these data may provide important clues for identifying patients for treatment with immunomodulatory agents in novel combinations and/or delivery approaches. Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT 01666444

Hole concentration and phonon renormalization in Ca-doped YBa_2Cu_3O_y (6.76 < y < 7.00)

In order to access the overdoped regime of the YBa_2Cu_3O_y phase diagram, 2% Ca is substituted for Y in YBa_2Cu_3O_y (y = 7.00,6.93,6.88,6.76). Raman scattering studies have been carried out on these four single crystals. Measurements of the superconductivity-induced renormalization in frequency (Delta \omega) and linewidth (\Delta 2\gamma) of the 340 cm^{-1} B_{1g} phonon demonstrate that the magnitude of the renormalization is directly related to the hole concentration (p), and not simply the oxygen content. The changes in \Delta \omega with p imply that the superconducting gap (\Delta_{max}) decreases monotonically with increasing hole concentration in the overdoped regime, and \Delta \omega falls to zero in the underdoped regime. The linewidth renormalization \Delta 2\gamma is negative in the underdoped regime, crossing over at optimal doping to a positive value in the overdoped state.Comment: 18 pages; 5 figures; submitted to Phys. Rev. B Oct. 24, 2002 (BX8292

Cosmological parameters from CMB and other data: a Monte-Carlo approach

We present a fast Markov Chain Monte-Carlo exploration of cosmological parameter space. We perform a joint analysis of results from recent CMB experiments and provide parameter constraints, including sigma_8, from the CMB independent of other data. We next combine data from the CMB, HST Key Project, 2dF galaxy redshift survey, supernovae Ia and big-bang nucleosynthesis. The Monte Carlo method allows the rapid investigation of a large number of parameters, and we present results from 6 and 9 parameter analyses of flat models, and an 11 parameter analysis of non-flat models. Our results include constraints on the neutrino mass (m_nu < 0.3eV), equation of state of the dark energy, and the tensor amplitude, as well as demonstrating the effect of additional parameters on the base parameter constraints. In a series of appendices we describe the many uses of importance sampling, including computing results from new data and accuracy correction of results generated from an approximate method. We also discuss the different ways of converting parameter samples to parameter constraints, the effect of the prior, assess the goodness of fit and consistency, and describe the use of analytic marginalization over normalization parameters.Comment: Quintessence results now include perturbations. Changes to match version accepted by PRD. MCMC code and data are available at http://cosmologist.info/cosmomc/ along with a B&W printer-friendly version of the pape

Trans-ancestry genome-wide association study identifies 12 genetic loci influencing blood pressure and implicates a role for DNA methylation

We carried out a trans-ancestry genome-wide association and replication study of blood pressure phenotypes among up to 320,251 individuals of East Asian, European and South Asian ancestry. We find genetic variants at 12 new loci to be associated with blood pressure (P = 3.9 &times; 10-11 to 5.0 &times; 10-21). The sentinel blood pressure SNPs are enriched for association with DNA methylation at multiple nearby CpG sites, suggesting that, at some of the loci identified, DNA methylation may lie on the regulatory pathway linking sequence variation to blood pressure. The sentinel SNPs at the 12 new loci point to genes involved in vascular smooth muscle (IGFBP3, KCNK3, PDE3A and PRDM6) and renal (ARHGAP24, OSR1, SLC22A7 and TBX2) function. The new and known genetic variants predict increased left ventricular mass, circulating levels of NT-proBNP, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality (P = 0.04 to 8.6 &times; 10-6). Our results provide new evidence for the role of DNA methylation in blood pressure regulation