The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture : a ricardian approach

This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature are much more important than changes in precipitation. This result is confirmed by the predicted impact of various climate change scenarios on agriculture. The results further confirm that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. The authors analyze farmers'perceptions of climate variations and their adaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptation mechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya are aware of short-term climate change, that most of them have noticed an increase in temperatures, and that some have taken adaptive measures.Climate Change,Environmental Economics&Policies,Common Property Resource Development,Global Environment Facility,Crops&Crop Management Systems

Child Survival and Policy Options in Kenya: Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys

Abstract: This paper investigates child survival in Kenya. We use survival analysis to explain childhood mortality and further simulate the impact of key policy variables on millennium development goals targets for mortality. The results show that favorable child and maternal characteristics, and household assets are associated with higher probability of survival at time t. The results further show that health care services are crucial for child survival. Policy simulations suggest that maternal education and use of modern contraception methods are key policy issues for child survival. The simulations further suggest that it is unlikely that the millennium development goals targets will be achieved

Child Survival, Poverty and Policy Options from DHS Surveys in Kenya: 1993-2003

This paper analyses multidimensional aspects of child poverty in Kenya. We carry out poverty and inequality comparisons for child survival and also use the parametric survival model to explain childhood mortality using DHS data. The results of poverty comparisons show that: children with the lowest probability of survival are from households with the lowest level of assets; and poverty orderings for child survival by assets are robust to the choice of the poverty line and to the measure of wellbeing. Inequality analysis suggests that there is less mortality inequality among children facing mortality than children who are better off. The survival model results show that child and maternal characteristics, and household assets are important correlates of childhood mortality. The results further show that health care services are crucial for child survival. Policy simulations suggest that there is potential for making some progress in reducing mortality, but the ERS and MDG targets cannot be achieved.Child survival, multidimensional poverty, inequality, stochastic dominance, childhood mortality, asset index, Kenya

Wage determination and the gender wage gap in Kenya : any evidence of gender discrimination?

This study presents an analysis of the determinants of wages as well as a decomposition of the gender gap across sectors in Kenya. Results indicate that education and other demographic factors are important determinants of the choice of sector of employment and earnings, and that there is no serious self-selectivity problem. The gender gap decomposition results suggest that favouritism towards men is pronounced in all sectors. The study recommends investment in instruments to reduce gender inequalities in access to education and also government policies that minimize favouritism towards men. This study presents an analysis of the determinants of wages as well as a decomposition of the gender gap across sectors in Kenya

Forest dependence and household welfare : empirical evidence from Kenya

This paper explores the role of forest in household welfare in Kenya. The paper uses primary household level data collected from Nakuru district in November and December 2006. The household level data is supplemented by a community survey to gather community level information on market access among other factors. Both descriptive and econometric methods are used to explore the correlates of participation in forest activities and also in forest collective action. The paper also analyses the contribution of forests to income distribution in the study sample using the Lorenz curve approach. The paper further explores resource extraction and the economic reliance of households on forests. The results suggest that forests play an important role as safety nets that cushion households during periods of hardship. The results also suggest that forests play an important role as a gap-filler and as a source of regular subsistence use and also an important role in poverty reduction. The econometric results point at the role of household heterogeneity in terms of willingness to participate in forest collective action and private resource endowments in influencing economic reliance on forests. The results further suggest that both the poor and the less poor derive a substantive share of incomes from forest activities and that forests are not necessarily poverty traps for rural households. Forest policies need to take into account tradeoffs between forest extraction and forest degradation and also consider targeting of households in forest use and management depending on household heterogeneities in both current and permanent incomes

Multidimensional Poverty in Kenya: Analysis of Maternal and Child Wellbeing

This paper generates multidimensional poverty profiles for women and children over a ten-year period from 1993 to 2003.Data from the national Demographic and Health Survey are used to improve measurement of poverty in Kenya in four ways: First, the paper constructs a composite wealth index (CWI). Second, it applies the Alkire and Foster (2007) approach to the measurement of multidimensional poverty based on the CWI and health status. Third, stochastic dominance approaches are used to make poverty orderings across groups. Fourth, the probability of being poor in assets, health or both is explored using a bivariate probit model. The results show that the distribution of poor women and children differs across groups, space and time. We also find that the CWI and residence in a rural area respectively contribute more to multidimensional poverty than health and residence in an urban area. The results further suggest that understanding the correlates of wellbeing in a multidimensional context can generate policy insights for improving human capital investments.Multidimensional poverty, composite wealth indicator, child health, stochastic dominance, Kenya

Civic Agency: an Invisible Health Determinant

This paper extends a cross-country analysis of health determinants with a civil society variable. The reason is that next to government and households and the level of economic development, civil society agency is likely to play a role in health care as well. This role refers to community care, political pressure, and demands for accountability of health care providers. We use the ISD index of civic activism to measure the agency of civil society. The panel regression results for developing counties indicate that civic activism contributes to the reduction of child mortality and maternal mortality. The size effect is larger than that of almost all other variables, except those for health expenditures. This implies that in times of severe financial constraints, civic activism may be the relatively most feasible factor stimulating better health outcomes

Smallholder Avocado Contract Farming in Kenya: Determinants and Differentials in Outcomes

Avocado is a non-traditional export crop of economic importance in Kenya. Commercialization of the fruit through contract farming is a viable alternative for improving the welfare of majority of smallholder farmers involved in its production. This paper explores factors influencing the participation of smallholder farmers in avocado contract farming and decomposes those contributing to differentials in quality and quantities of fruit harvested and sold by contract and non-contract farmers.  Findings from a probit analysis indicate that adoption of Hass and Fuerte varieties, hired labor, and information on production and marketing significantly influenced participation in contract farming. Results from gap analysis, using Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, showed that differences between contract and non-contract farmers in quality and quantities of harvested and sold were due to endowment and structural differences. The results imply that closing the observed gap will require policies aimed at facilitating better access to land and training of farmers in good agricultural practices among other support services

Shocks, vulnerabilities and social protection

This policy brief is based on Kabubo-Mariara J. and Kiriti-Ng’ang’a T. (2013) The Impact of Social Protection on the Welfare of Vulnerable Communities in East Africa: A Case Study from Kenya. Project report presented to IDRC, Nairobi, 2013In a devolved government system, local institutions play a significant role in fighting poverty at the grassroots level. Investigating the shocks and risks faced by vulnerable groups and how social protection is used to cope with shocks, a survey of 968 households was conducted in two provinces in Kenya. Policies aimed at enhancing capacity can provide opportunities for the poor and vulnerable to improve livelihoods and welfare, in addition to equipping them with skills to better manage risks and shocks. Recipients of cash transfers were less likely to experience shocks (especially social shocks) than their non-beneficiary counterparts