Can core-surface flow models be used to improve the forecast of the Earth's main magnetic field?

[1] Geomagnetic main field models used for navigation are updated every 5 years and contain a forecast of the geomagnetic secular variation for the upcoming epoch. Forecasting secular variation is a difficult task. The change of the main magnetic field is thought to be principally due to advection of the field by flow at the surface of the outer core on short timescales and when large length scales are considered. With accurate secular variation (SV) and secular acceleration (SA) models now available from new satellite missions, inverting for the flow and advecting it forward could lead to a more accurate prediction of the main field. However, this scheme faces two significant challenges. The first arises from the truncation of the observable main field at spherical harmonic degree 13. This can however be handled if the true core flow is large scale and has a rapidly decaying energy spectrum. The second is that even at a given single epoch the instantaneous SV and SA cannot simultaneously be explained by a steady flow. Nevertheless, we find that it may be feasible to use flow models for an improved temporal extrapolation of the main field. A medium-term (≈10 years) hindcast of the field using a steady flow model outperforms the usual extrapolation using the presently observed SV and SA. On the other hand, our accelerated, toroidal flow model, which explains a larger portion of the observed average SA over the 2000–2005 period, fails to improve both the short-term and medium-term hindcasts of the field. This somewhat paradoxical result is related to the occurrence of so-called geomagnetic jerks, the still poorly known dynamical nature of which remains the main obstacle to improved geomagnetic field forecasts

Invisible Diaspora? English Ethnicity in the United States before 1920

The article presents an examination into the English population of the United States during the 19th and early 20th centuries, examining their ethnic identity as a diaspora community. Introductory details are given noting the relative lack of attention given to English Americans as an ethnic group. Topics addressed include reasons behind the invisibility of the English immigrant identity in the U.S., the existence of English ethnic organizations, and an overview of their activities

Biased residuals of core flow models from satellite-derived 'virtual observatories'

Large satellite vector datasets of the Earth’s magnetic field have become available in recent years. Standard magnetic field models of the internal field are generated by parameterising a small subset of these data through a least-squares spherical harmonic representation. An alternative approach is to create a set of ‘virtual observatories’ (VO) in space, mimicking the operation of fixed ground-based observatories. We derive VO datasets from both CHAMP and Ørsted satellite measurements. We calculate and directly invert the secular variation (SV) from these VO datasets, to infer flow along the core-mantle boundary using an L1 (or Laplacian) norm method (to reduce the effect of outliers). By examining the residuals from the flow models, we find temporally and spatially varying biases and patterns in the vector components.We investigate potential causes for these patterns, for example, by selecting night-side only vector data and applying corrections to the input data, using external and toroidal fields calculated by Comprehensive Model 4 (CM4).We test the effect of a number of data selection and correction criteria and find evidence for influence from fields both internal and external to the satellite, orbital configuration and effects from the method of binning data to produce VO. The use of CM4 to correct the satellite data before calculating the VO SV grid removes a strong bias from external sources but, on average, does not greatly improve the fit of the flow to the data. We conclude that the best fit of the flows to the data is obtained using satellite night-side only data to generate VO. We suggest that, despite best efforts, external fields effects are not completely removed from SV data and hence create unrealistic secular acceleration

Ex ante impact assessment of policies affecting land use, Part B: application of the analytical framework

The use of science-based tools for impact assessment has increasingly gained focus in addressing the complexity of interactions between environment, society, and economy. For integrated assessment of policies affecting land use, an analytical framework was developed. The aim of our work was to apply the analytical framework for specific scenario cases and in combination with quantitative and qualitative application methods. The analytical framework was tested for two cases involving the ex ante impact assessment of: (1) a European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) financial reform scenario employing a modeling approach and combined with a comprehensive indicator analysis and valuation; and (2) a regional bioenergy policy scenario, employing a fully participatory approach. The results showed that European land use in general is less sensitive to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, but in the context of regions there can be significant impacts on the functions of land use. In general, the implementation of the analytical framework for impact assessment proved to be doable with both methods, i.e., with the quantitative modeling and with the qualitative participatory approach. A key advantage of using the system of linked quantitative models is that it makes possible the simultaneous consideration of all relevant sectors of the economy without abstaining from a great level of detail for sectors of particular interest. Other advantages lie in the incontestable character of the results. Based on neutral, existing data with a fixed set of settings and regions, an absolute comparability and reproducibility throughout Europe can be maintained. Analyzing the pros and cons of both approaches showed that they could be used complementarily rather than be seen as competing alternatives

Secular variation of the geomagnetic dipole during the past 2000 years

International audienceWe have constructed a very simple model of a time-varying geocentric dipole based on the archeomagnetic records obtained at four widely separated sites on the globe for the past 2 ka. The predictions of the model in terms of directional variations have been tested against actual archeomagnetic data from 12 sites distributed over the globe. They were also compared with the Hongre et al. (1998) time-varying spherical harmonic model and with the CALS7K-2 model by Korte et al. (2005). We find that the misfits between the predictions of our simple dipole model and the data are equivalent to those of the spherical harmonic models for the European sites and not strikingly larger for the rest of the world. Many discrepancies can be accounted for by uncertainties inherent to the archeomagnetic records, which, along with the small number and poor geographical distribution of sites, leads us to conclude that the present state of the database does not allow the extraction of secular variations described by terms going beyond degree 2. It appears also that dipole tilt could be responsible for the main part of the secular variation associated with time constants exceeding 102 years. In a second step, we used the paleointensity records contained in the same database to construct the curve depicting the variations of the true dipole moment. The present decrease of the dipole did not begin prior to 1000 years ago, and the dipole was actually increasing from 0 until A.D. 500. The dipole moment of CALS7K is lower than the present estimate, probably due to large repartition of energy to higher harmonics to minimize the misfit between the inversion and the data. The tilt and strength of the dipole can predict the dipole field at any site and were used to derive the contribution of the nondipole field to values of paleointensity at Paris during the past 2 ka. The results show that the "archeomagnetic jerks" are associated with various configurations depending on the phase relationship between the nondipolar and dipolar parts of the field