An overview on the capabilities of the TELEMACMASCARET system to deal with tsunamis: feedbacks from TANDEM project

Water Qualit

Reef influence quantification in light of the 1771 Meiwa tsunami

While interactions between regular wave driven flooding and reefs have been widely studied due to climate change pressure, the effects of reefs on tsunami flooding have less been investigated. From studies of historical events, reefs can behave as buffers or as amplifiers of inundation, depending upon the location. Interactions between reefs and tsunamis have generally been analyzed with idealized models, and there have been only few studies of specific reefs and their characteristics. Using numerical NonLinear Shallow Water models, this study characterizes the influence of the Southeast Ishigaki Island reef during the 1771 tsunami that hit the Yaeyama Islands. In this work, we modified reef topography in silico and then, measured the impact of these changes using a new parameter, the Reef Impact Factor (RIF). First, a reference model was built, simulating the real event with an accurate reef representation and using run-up data to calibrate bottom friction. This calibration highlights the difficulty of representing reef friction with a homogeneous coefficient. Second, a model without a reef was compared to the reference model. The impact of reef removal varies considerably along the coastline and maximum wave heights at the shore were strongly affected, with a increase on average. Overall, this suggests a protective role of the reef along most of the coast. However, at local scale, channels that break the continuity of the front reef, increased wave heights by up to on the proximate coast, revealing their strong focusing influence. Finally, changes in tide level, which regulates reef depth, were investigated, showing a global positive correlation between sea level and maximum wave height at the coast. However, the impact of the reef depth appeared weak compared to the impact of incident wave parameters. This study contributes to a global effort to understand tsunami-reef interactions in a non-idealized framework, suggesting a Reef Impact Factor for inter-reef/study comparisons. Moreover, vulnerable and exposed coasts were identified at Ishigaki Island, which may help to improve inundation forecasting, resulting in more appropriate management of these vulnerable sections of the coast

A new European coastal flood database for low-medium intensity events

Coastal flooding is recognized as one of the most devastating natural disasters, resulting in significant economic losses. Therefore, hazard assessment is crucial to support preparedness and response to such disasters. Toward this, flood map databases and catalogues are essential for the analysis of flood scenarios, and furthermore they can be integrated into disaster risk reduction studies. In this study and in the context of the European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project (GA 101004211), which aimed to propose the European Copernicus Coastal Flood Awareness System, a catalogue of flood maps was produced. The flood maps were generated from flood models developed with LISFLOOD-FP for defined coastal sectors along the entire European coastline. For each coastal sector, 15 synthetic scenarios were defined focusing on high-frequency events specific to the local area. These scenarios were constructed based on three distinct storm durations and five different total-water-level (TWL) peaks incorporating tide, mean sea level, surge and wave setup components. The flood model method was extensively validated against 12 test cases for which observed data were collated using satellite-derived flood maps and in situ flood markers. Half of the test cases represented well the flooding with hit scores higher than 80ĝ€¯%. The synthetic-scenario approach was assessed by comparing flood maps from real events and their closest identified scenarios, producing a good agreement and global skill scores higher than 70ĝ€¯%. Using the catalogue, flood scenarios across Europe were assessed, and the biggest flooding occurred in well-known low-lying areas. In addition, different sensitivities to the increase in the duration and TWL peak were noted. The storm duration impacts a few limited flood-prone areas such as the Dutch coast, for which the flooded area increases more than twice between 12 and 36ĝ€¯h storm scenarios. The influence of the TWL peak is more global, especially along the Mediterranean coast, for which the relative difference between a 2- and 20-year return period storm is around 80ĝ€¯%. Finally, at a European scale, the expansion of flood areas in relation to increases in TWL peaks demonstrated both positive and negative correlations with the presence of urban and wetland areas, respectively. This observation supports the concept of storm flood mitigation by wetlands

Theoretical and numerical study of seismic tsunami dynamics

Dû à leur impact destructeur et meurtrier, il est important de comprendre la dynamique des tsunamis afin d'améliorer les modèles de prévention et d'alerte. Le peu de données disponibles in situ rend la génération des tsunamis peu connue. Les modèles de générations, notamment la génération sismique qui est considérée ici, simplifient les phénomènes mis en jeu. De nombreux effets sont négligés, parmi eux la cinématique de déformation du fond. Deux paramètres temporels peuvent être définis pour d écrire ce mouvement: la vitesse de propagation de rupture vp qui est propre à l' évènement sismique, et le temps d' élévation tr. Respectivement, ces paramètres caractérisent le mouvement horizontal et vertical. Une étude linéaire et théorique, puis non-linéaire et numérique, révèle un phénomène de résonance pour de courts tr et des vp de l'ordre de la célérité des ondes longues. Dans ces conditions, l'amplitude des vagues générées est amplifié e par rapport à celle de la déformation du fond marin, et des phénomènes dispersifs apparaissent. Pour illustrer ce phénomène, le cas du tsunami de 1947, qui frappa la Nouvelle Zélande, est simulé avec les modèles de Saint-Venant puis de Boussinesq du système Telemac2D. Rejoignant la théorie, l'influence de vp est nettement observable tandis que les faibles valeurs de tr ont un impact limité. Bien que des effets dispersifs soient attendus durant cet évènement, ils ne sont pas observés avec le modèle numérique. En parallèle de cette étude sur les échelles temporelles, cette thèse a permis de contribuer à la validation des modèles numériques du système Telemac dans le cadre du projet TANDEM. Ainsi, les modèles issus de Telemac2Det Telemac3D sont testés sur des cas tests représentant la génération, la propagation ou le run-up d'un tsunami. Il s'avère que dans la plupart des cas, les modèles numériques proposent de résultats très corrects. Cependant, on note une certaine dépendance aux paramètres numériques pour les cas délicats comme celui de la propagation d'une onde solitaire. En plus des cas idéalisés, le modèle de Saint-Venant de Telemac2D est utilisé pour modéliser l'évènement de Tohoku-Oki de 2011, pour lequel les résultats sont satisfaisantsThe impact of tsunamis on mankind is well known. During recent years, several events showed us the disasters they can trigger which reiterate the importance of understanding their dynamics. Due to the lack of in-situ data, the generation is the least known aspect of tsunamis. As a result, simplified models of the source are used for numerical tsunami modeling, as for seismic generation for which the traditional approach neglects several phenomena, among which is the kinematic deformation of the sea floor. This motion canbe characterized by two temporal parameters: the rupture velocity vp and a hydraulic rise time tr. The novelty here, is to investigate both parameters simultaneously and to extend the linear theoretical development to a non-linear numerical study. From these works, a resonance zone is identified for small tr and vp close to the long wave celerity. For these particular values, the waves are amplified beside the sea floor deformation and dispersive effects develop. To illustrate this theory, the 1947 New Zealand tsunami is simulatedwith the Non-Linear Shallow Water and Boussinesq models of Telemac2D. This seismic event corresponds to a tsunami earthquake with slow kinematics of deformation. Four generation models, with different values of vp and tr are compared. The impact of vp on the generated wave amplitudes is strong whereas the influence due to tr is significantly smaller. Additionally, it was found that the expected dispersive effects did not develop during the numerical modeling. Meanwhile, in the scope of the TANDEM project, the validation of the Telemac system is performed through test cases, covering: generation, propagation and run-up of tsunamis. Globally, the models from the Telemac system match the validation data, however we note a reliance on numerical parameters for sensitive cases as the propagation of a solitary wave. Finally, the Non-Linear Shallow Water model of Telemac2D is used to simulate the Tohoku-Oki tsunami that hit Japan in 2011. Thenumerical model succeeds in representing this real event incorporating all the stages of tsunami life, from generation to flooded areas. Some limitations in using the method were found, which one discussed in detail within the present manuscrip

Étude théorique et numérique de la dynamique des tsunamis sismiques

The impact of tsunamis on mankind is well known. During recent years, several events showed us the disasters they can trigger which reiterate the importance of understanding their dynamics. Due to the lack of in-situ data, the generation is the least known aspect of tsunamis. As a result, simplified models of the source are used for numerical tsunami modeling, as for seismic generation for which the traditional approach neglects several phenomena, among which is the kinematic deformation of the sea floor. This motion canbe characterized by two temporal parameters: the rupture velocity vp and a hydraulic rise time tr. The novelty here, is to investigate both parameters simultaneously and to extend the linear theoretical development to a non-linear numerical study. From these works, a resonance zone is identified for small tr and vp close to the long wave celerity. For these particular values, the waves are amplified beside the sea floor deformation and dispersive effects develop. To illustrate this theory, the 1947 New Zealand tsunami is simulatedwith the Non-Linear Shallow Water and Boussinesq models of Telemac2D. This seismic event corresponds to a tsunami earthquake with slow kinematics of deformation. Four generation models, with different values of vp and tr are compared. The impact of vp on the generated wave amplitudes is strong whereas the influence due to tr is significantly smaller. Additionally, it was found that the expected dispersive effects did not develop during the numerical modeling. Meanwhile, in the scope of the TANDEM project, the validation of the Telemac system is performed through test cases, covering: generation, propagation and run-up of tsunamis. Globally, the models from the Telemac system match the validation data, however we note a reliance on numerical parameters for sensitive cases as the propagation of a solitary wave. Finally, the Non-Linear Shallow Water model of Telemac2D is used to simulate the Tohoku-Oki tsunami that hit Japan in 2011. Thenumerical model succeeds in representing this real event incorporating all the stages of tsunami life, from generation to flooded areas. Some limitations in using the method were found, which one discussed in detail within the present manuscriptDû à leur impact destructeur et meurtrier, il est important de comprendre la dynamique des tsunamis afin d'améliorer les modèles de prévention et d'alerte. Le peu de données disponibles in situ rend la génération des tsunamis peu connue. Les modèles de générations, notamment la génération sismique qui est considérée ici, simplifient les phénomènes mis en jeu. De nombreux effets sont négligés, parmi eux la cinématique de déformation du fond. Deux paramètres temporels peuvent être définis pour d écrire ce mouvement: la vitesse de propagation de rupture vp qui est propre à l' évènement sismique, et le temps d' élévation tr. Respectivement, ces paramètres caractérisent le mouvement horizontal et vertical. Une étude linéaire et théorique, puis non-linéaire et numérique, révèle un phénomène de résonance pour de courts tr et des vp de l'ordre de la célérité des ondes longues. Dans ces conditions, l'amplitude des vagues générées est amplifié e par rapport à celle de la déformation du fond marin, et des phénomènes dispersifs apparaissent. Pour illustrer ce phénomène, le cas du tsunami de 1947, qui frappa la Nouvelle Zélande, est simulé avec les modèles de Saint-Venant puis de Boussinesq du système Telemac2D. Rejoignant la théorie, l'influence de vp est nettement observable tandis que les faibles valeurs de tr ont un impact limité. Bien que des effets dispersifs soient attendus durant cet évènement, ils ne sont pas observés avec le modèle numérique. En parallèle de cette étude sur les échelles temporelles, cette thèse a permis de contribuer à la validation des modèles numériques du système Telemac dans le cadre du projet TANDEM. Ainsi, les modèles issus de Telemac2Det Telemac3D sont testés sur des cas tests représentant la génération, la propagation ou le run-up d'un tsunami. Il s'avère que dans la plupart des cas, les modèles numériques proposent de résultats très corrects. Cependant, on note une certaine dépendance aux paramètres numériques pour les cas délicats comme celui de la propagation d'une onde solitaire. En plus des cas idéalisés, le modèle de Saint-Venant de Telemac2D est utilisé pour modéliser l'évènement de Tohoku-Oki de 2011, pour lequel les résultats sont satisfaisant

Influence of timescales on the generation of seismic tsunamis

International audienc

Shallow water numerical models for the 1947 gisborne and 2011 Tohoku-Oki tsunamis with kinematic seismic generation

International audienc

Validating a whole farm modelling with stakeholders: evidence from a west african case

Strategic and tactical decision support tools can assist farmers to make farm management decisions. The challengefacing researchers is to construct decision support tools that lead to the successful adoption of the strategiesselected. This article describes and assesses the use of a whole-farm model in West African savannah regions.Farmers and advisors were involved in the choice and design of models, the definition and analysis of scenarios,the design of alternative strategies, and the validation of models. The validation process included a short andmid-term analysis of the use and usefulness of the model for farmers. During the validation process, farmersdemonstrated that they were able to define and characterize iterative scenarios permitting the performance of theirfarm to be improved. They also had a good understanding of the outputs of the model, even several months afterthey had used the model. They declared having changed some technical or management practices and havingacquiried calculation and management skills. This type of process offers an alternative to conventional advisorymethods based on advisor expertise

Influence of model configuration for coastal flooding across Europe

Coastal flooding estimation at large scale, e.g. pan-European is usually performed using static method while dynamic method, in which numerical flood models are used to solve hydrodynamic equations, have proven to perform better. However, a numerical flood model can rapidly become computationally demanding. Thus, to respect the balance between efficiency and quality, models need to be properly configured. Usually, the model configuration is supported by calibration and validation. In the cases where it is not possible to appropriately implement calibration and validation through comparison against observed and measured data, sensitivity analyses can be applied in order to identify the key parameters that could influence the model capability to properly represent the modelled process. The present work aimed to identify influential model parameters across Europe and their relative importance in flood model configuration. Seventeen test cases were selected for which a LISFLOOD-FP model was developed, covering several sites across Europe and considering different storm events. A panoply of local morphologies and boundary conditions derived from the sites and storm event characteristics were used. For each test case, 72 simulations with different configurations were performed by varying the grid resolution, the numerical solver, the bottom friction and the wave set -up formulation used to estimate the total water level as a boundary condition. Two sensitivity analyses were performed on the modelled maximum flooded areas and water volumes using One-Driver-At-a-Time and variance-based methods. By using a k-means clustering method, the results of these sensitivity analyses allowed us to identify patterns through the test cases related to the geographical region, providing important information for the configuration of flood models across Europe. Both sensitivity analysis methods led to similar results highlighting dominant relative influences from the floodplain solver on the Atlantic coasts and from the boundary conditions on the Mediterranean ones. In addition the grid resolution was found to have great effect on the North and Baltic seas, while globally the friction was shown to impact the model's results less. The test cases were clustered using a k-means method using as input both the sensitivity analysis results and morphological factors. Depending upon the inputs, two different sets of clusters were generated revealing a complex relationship between the influence of the model's parameters and the selected morphological indicators

A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events

Coastal flooding is recognized as one of the most devastating natural disasters, resulting in significant economic losses. Therefore, hazard assessment is crucial to support preparedness and response to such disasters. Toward this, flood map databases and catalogues are essential for the analysis of flood scenarios, and furthermore they can be integrated into disaster risk reduction studies. In this study and in the context of the European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project (GA 101004211), which aimed to propose the European Copernicus Coastal Flood Awareness System, a catalogue of flood maps was produced. The flood maps were generated from flood models developed with LISFLOOD-FP for defined coastal sectors along the entire European coastline. For each coastal sector, 15 synthetic scenarios were defined focusing on high-frequency events specific to the local area. These scenarios were constructed based on three distinct storm durations and five different total-water-level (TWL) peaks incorporating tide, mean sea level, surge and wave setup components. The flood model method was extensively validated against 12 test cases for which observed data were collated using satellite-derived flood maps and in situ flood markers. Half of the test cases represented well the flooding with hit scores higher than 80 %. The synthetic-scenario approach was assessed by comparing flood maps from real events and their closest identified scenarios, producing a good agreement and global skill scores higher than 70 %. Using the catalogue, flood scenarios across Europe were assessed, and the biggest flooding occurred in well-known low-lying areas. In addition, different sensitivities to the increase in the duration and TWL peak were noted. The storm duration impacts a few limited flood-prone areas such as the Dutch coast, for which the flooded area increases more than twice between 12 and 36 h storm scenarios. The influence of the TWL peak is more global, especially along the Mediterranean coast, for which the relative difference between a 2- and 20-year return period storm is around 80 %. Finally, at a European scale, the expansion of flood areas in relation to increases in TWL peaks demonstrated both positive and negative correlations with the presence of urban and wetland areas, respectively. This observation supports the concept of storm flood mitigation by wetlands