The finite-sample effects of VAR dimensions on OLS bias, OLS variance, and minimum MSE estimators: Purely nonstationary case

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are an important tool in time series analysis. However, relatively little is known about the nite-sample behaviour of parameter estimators. We address this issue, by investigating ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators given a data generating process that is a purely nonstationary rst-order VAR. Specically, we use Monte Carlo simulation and numerical optimization to derive response surfaces for OLS bias and variance, in terms of VAR dimensions, given correct and (several types of) over-parameterization of the model: we include a constant, and a constant and trend, and introduce excess lags. We then examine the correction factors required for the least squares estimator to attain minimum mean squared error (MSE). Our results improve and extend one of the main nite-sample analytical bias results of Abadir, Hadri and Tzavalis (Econometrica 67 (1999) 163), generalize the univariate variance and MSE ndings of Abadir (Econ. Lett. 47 (1995) 263), and complement various asymptotic studies

The Finite-Sample E ects of VAR Dimensions on OLS Bias, OLS Variance, and Minimum MSE Estimators

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are important tools in time series analysis. However, relatively little is known about the nite-sample behaviour of parameter estimators. We address this issue, by investigating ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators given a data generating process that is a purely nonstationary rst-order VAR. Speci cally, we use Monte Carlo simulation and numerical optimization to derive response surfaces for OLS bias and variance, in terms of VAR dimensions, given correct speci cation and several types of over-parameterization of the model: we include a constant, and a constant and trend, and introduce excess lags. We then examine the correction factors that are required for the least squares estimator to attain minimum mean squared error (MSE). Our results improve and extend one of the main nite-sample multivariate analytical bias results of Abadir, Hadri and Tzavalis (Econometrica 67 (1999) 163), generalize the univariate variance and MSE ndings of Abadir (Economics Letters 47 (1995) 263) to the multivariate setting, and complement various asymptotic studies.Finite-sample bias, Monte Carlo simulation, nonstationary time series, response surfaces, vector autoregression.

The finite-sample effects of VAR dimensions on OLS bias, OLS variance, and minimum MSE estimators

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are important tools in time series analysis. However, relatively little is known about the finite-sample behaviour of parameter estimators. We address this issue, by investigating ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators given a data generating process that is a purely nonstationary first-order VAR. Specifically, we use Monte Carlo simulation and numerical optimisation to derive response surfaces for OLS bias and variance, in terms of VAR dimensions, given correct specification and several types of over-parameterisation of the model: we include a constant, and a constant and trend, and introduce excess lags. We then examine the correction factors that are required for the least squares estimator to attain the minimum mean squared error (MSE). Our results improve and extend one of the main finite-sample multivariate analytical bias results of Abadir, Hadri and Tzavalis [Abadir, K.M., Hadri, K., Tzavalis, E., 1999. The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases. Econometrica 67, 163–181], generalise the univariate variance and MSE findings of Abadir [Abadir, K.M., 1995. Unbiased estimation as a solution to testing for random walks. Economics Letters 47, 263–268] to the multivariate setting, and complement various asymptotic studies

Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy Leads to Improvements in Handgrip Strength

Background: A reduction in skeletal muscle performance measured by handgrip strength is common in heart failure. No trial has investigated the role of cardiac resynchronization therapy, which leads to improvements in cardiac performance, on the function of skeletal muscle in patients with heart failure. Methods: Nineteen patients were recruited, 18 male, age 69 ± 8 years, New York Heart Association class II-IV, QRS duration 173 ± 21 ms and left ventricular ejection fraction 26±8%. Handgrip strength was measured at baseline before, and 6 and 12 months, following cardiac resynchronization therapy. Response was assessed using quality of life questionnaire, 6-minute walk distance, left ventricular enddiastolic volume, and cardiopulmonary exercise testing at the same time points. Results: Fourteen patients were identified as responders, demonstrating significant improvements in all four markers of response. There was no significant difference at baseline in left or right handgrip strength between responders and non-responders. Compared to baseline, handgrip strength significantly increased in responders during follow-up, left (34.4 ± 11.4 to 40.3 ± 11.3 kgf, P < 0.001) and right (35.7 ± 12.5 to 42.2 ± 11.5 kgf, P < 0.001) at 12 months. No such improvement was seen in non-responders. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that positive response to cardiac resynchronization therapy is associated with significant gains in handgrip strength, suggesting that cardiac resynchronization therapy may indirectly lead to secondary gains in skeletal muscle function

Measures of endothelial dysfunction predict response to cardiac resynchronisation therapy

Objectives. Cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) improves morbidity and mortality in heart failure (HF). Impaired endothelial function, as measured by flow-mediated dilation (FMD) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in HF and may help to differentiate responders from non-responders. Methods. 19 patients were recruited, comprising 94% men, mean age 69±8 years, New York Heart Association functional classes II–IV, QRSd 161±21 ms and mean left ventricular ejection fraction 26±8%. Markers of response and FMD were measured at baseline, 6 and 12 months following CRT. Results. 14 patients were responders to CRT. Responders had significant improvements in VO2 (12.6±1.7 to 14.7±1.5 mL/kg/min, p<0.05), quality of life score (44.4±22.9–24.1±21.3, p<0.01), left ventricular end diastolic volume (201.5±72.5 mL–121.3±72.0 mL, p<0.01) and 6-min walk distance (374.0±112.8 m at baseline to 418.1±105.3 m, p<0.05). Baseline FMD in responders was 2.9±1.9% and 7.4±3.73% in non-responders (p<0.05). Conclusions. Response to CRT at 6 and 12 months is predicted by baseline FMD. This study confirms that FMD identifies responders to CRT, due to endothelium-dependent mechanisms alone

Alcohol-related expectancies are associated with the D2 dopamine receptor and GABAa receptor B3 subunit genes

Molecular genetic research has identified promising markers of alcohol dependence, including alleles of the D2 dopamine receptor (DRD2) and the GABAA receptor ￢3 subunit (GABRB3) genes. Whether such genetic risk manifests itself in stronger alcohol-related outcome expectancies, or in difficulty resisting alcohol, is unknown. In the present study, A1+ (A1A1 and A1A2 genotypes) and A1- (A2A2 genotype) alleles of the DRD2 and G1+ (G1G1 and G1 non-G1 genotypes) and G1- (non-G1 non-G1 genotype) alleles of the GABRB3 were determined in a group of 56 medically-ill patients diagnosed with alcohol dependence. Mood-related Alcohol Expectancy (AE) and Drinking Refusal Self-Efficacy (DRSE) were assessed using the Drinking Expectancy Profile (Young and Oei, 1996). Patients with the DRD2 A1+ allele, compared to those with the DRD2 A1- allele, reported lower DRSE in situations of social pressure (p=. 009). Similarly, lower DRSE was reported under social pressure by patients with the GABRB3 G1+ allele when compared to those with the GABRB3 G1- allele (p=.027). Patients with the GABRB3 G1+ allele also revealed reduced DRSE in situations characterized by negative affect than patients with the GABRB3 G1- alleles (p=. 037). Patients carrying the GABRB3 G1+ allele showed stronger AE relating to negative affective change (for example, increased depression) than their GABRB3 G1- counterparts (p=. 006). Biological influence in the development of some classes of cognitions is hypothesized. The clinical implications, particularly with regard to patient-treatment matching and the development of an integrated psychological and pharmacogenetic approach are discussed

Effect of side branch flow upon physiological indices in coronary artery disease

Recent efforts have demonstrated the ability of computational models to predict fractional flow reserve from coronary artery imaging without the need for invasive instrumentation. However, these models include only larger coronary arteries as smaller side branches cannot be resolved and are therefore neglected. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of neglecting the flow to these side branches when computing angiography-derived fractional flow reserve (vFFR) and indices of volumetric coronary artery blood flow. To compensate for the flow to side branches, a leakage function based upon vessel taper (Murray’s Law) was added to a previously developed computational model of coronary blood flow. The augmented model with a leakage function (1Dleaky) and the original model (1D) were then applied to predict FFR as well as inlet and outlet flow in 146 arteries from 80 patients who underwent invasive coronary angiography and FFR measurement. The results show that the leakage function did not significantly change the vFFR but did significantly impact the estimated volumetric flow rate and predicted coronary flow reserve. As both procedures achieved similar predictive accuracy of vFFR despite large differences in coronary blood flow, these results suggest careful consideration of the application of this index for quantitatively assessing flow

Does naltrexone treatment lead to depression? Findings from a randomized controlled trial in subjects with opioid dependence

Objective: Dysphoria and depression have been cited as side effects of the opioid antagonist naltrexone. We aimed to assess whether depressive symptoms are a clinically relevant side effect in a population receiving naltrexone as a treatment for opioid dependence. Methods: We carried out a randomized controlled, open-label trial comparing rapid opiate detoxification under anesthesia and naltrexone treatment with continued methadone maintenance at the Alcohol and Drug Service, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. The study subjects were patients stabilized on methadone maintenance treatment for heroin dependence who wished to transfer to naltrexone treatment. The Beck Depression Inventory, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Opiate Treatment Index subscales for heroin use and social functioning were used at baseline and follow-up assessments at 1, 2, 3 and 6 months. Results: Forty-two participants were allocated to receive naltrexone treatment, whereas 38 continued methadone maintenance as the control condition. Participants who received naltrexone did not exhibit worsening of depressive symptoms. In participants attending all follow-up assessments, there was a trend for those receiving naltrexone to exhibit an improvement in depression over time compared with the control group. Participants who were adherent to naltrexone treatment exhibited fewer depressive symptoms than those who were nonadherent. Conclusions: These results suggest that depression need not be considered a common adverse effect of naltrexone treatment or a treatment contraindication and that engaging with or adhering to naltrexone treatment may be associated with fewer depressive symptoms