Evaluating observer agreement of scoring systems for foot integrity and footrot lesions in sheep

Background: A scoring scale with five ordinal categories is used for visual diagnosis of footrot in sheep and to study its epidemiology and control. More recently a 4 point ordinal scale has been used by researchers to score foot integrity (wall and sole horn damage) in sheep. There is no information on observer agreement using either of these scales. Observer agreement for ordinal scores is usually estimated by single measure values such as weighted kappa or Kendall’s coefficient of concordance which provide no information where the disagreement lies. Modeling techniques such as latent class models provide information on both observer bias and whether observers have different thresholds at which they change the score given. In this paper we use weighted kappa and located latent class modeling to explore observer agreement when scoring footrot lesions (using photographs and videos) and foot integrity (using post mortem specimens) in sheep. We used 3 observers and 80 photographs and videos and 80 feet respectively. Results: Both footrot and foot integrity scoring scales were more consistent within observers than between. The weighted kappa values between observers for both footrot and integrity scoring scales ranged from moderate to substantial. There was disagreement between observers with both observer bias and different thresholds between score values. The between observer thresholds were different for scores 1 and 2 for footrot (using photographs and videos) and for all scores for integrity (both walls and soles). The within observer agreement was higher with weighted kappa values ranging from substantial to almost perfect. Within observer thresholds were also more consistent than between observer thresholds. Scoring using photographs was less variable than scoring using video clips or feet. Conclusions: Latent class modeling is a useful method for exploring components of disagreement within and between observers and this information could be used when developing a scoring system to improve reliability

Linking Chemical Changes in Soot and Polyaromatics to Cloud Droplet Formation

Soot and other products of incomplete combustion play an important role in the chemistry of the atmosphere. As particles are exposed to trace gases, such as ozone, their chemistry and physical properties can be altered leading to changes in their optical properties, as well as their cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleation abilities. These alterations can lead to changes in the global radiative budget and cloud microphysical processes, which in turn affect the climate. In this study, the chemical and physical changes associated with the oxidation of pyrene, anthracene, and carbon (lampblack) by ozone were investigated. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy was used to identify oxidation products and track reaction progress for these representative aerosols. A C=O band attributed to a carboxylic acid formation was observed for all three substances, at each level of exposure to ozone - 20 ppm, 40 ppm, and 80 ppm. Second order reaction rate constants ranged from 9.58 x 10-16 cm2 molecules-1 s-1 to 7.71 x 10-13 cm2 molecules-1 s-1. Measurements of water uptake, ice nucleation efficiency, and optical properties were obtained to determine whether any physical changes associated with the oxidation process occurred. Optical measurements show an increase in the ultra-violet absorption of anthracene, but not for pyrene, while an increase in the visible absorption for pyrene was observed, but not for anthracene. Oxidized soot froze at a warmer temperature (-22.8 degrees C) then fresh soot (-25.6 degrees C), showing an increase in ice nucleation efficiency. Our data indicates that oxidation by ozone does alter the chemistry and physical properties of the substances study, leading to possible changes in how they interact with atmospheric processes

Predictive validity of the HCR-20 for violent and non-violent sexual behaviour in a secure mental health service

BackgroundViolent and non-violent sexual behaviour is a fairly common problem among secure mental health service patients, but specialist sexual violence risk assessment is time-consuming and so performed infrequently.AimsWe aimed to establish whether a commonly used violence risk assessment tool, the Health Clinical Risk management 20(HCR-20), has predictive validity specifically for inappropriate sexual behaviour.MethodsA pseudo-prospective cohort design was used for a study in the adult wards of a large provider of specialist secure mental health services. Routine clinical team HCR-20 assessments were extracted from records, and incidents involving inappropriate sexual behaviour were recorded for the 3 months following assessment.ResultsOf 613 patients, 104 (17%) had engaged in at least one inappropriate sexual behaviour; in 65 (10.6%), the sexual act was violent. HCR-20 total score, clinical and risk management subscales, predicted violent and non-violent sexual behaviour. The negative predictive value of the HCR-20 for inappropriate sexual behaviour was over 90%.ConclusionsPrediction of violent sexual behaviour may be regarded as well within the scope of the HCR-20 as a structured professional judgement tool to aid violence risk prediction, but we found that it also predicts behaviours that may be of concern but fall below the violence threshold. High negative predictive values suggest that HCR-20 scores may have some utility for screening out patients who do not require more specialist assessment for inappropriate sexual behaviour

A four year longitudinal sero-epidemiological study of bovine herpesvirus type-1 (BHV-1) in adult cattle in 107 unvaccinated herds in south west England

Background: Bovine herpesvirus type-1 (BHV-1) is an important pathogen of cattle that presents with a variety of clinical signs, including the upper respiratory tract infection infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR). A seroepidemiological study of BHV-1 antibodies was conducted in England from 2002 – 2004: 29,782 blood samples were taken from 15,736 cattle from 114 herds which were visited on up to three occasions. Antibody concentration was measured using a commercial ELISA. Farm management information was collected using an interview questionnaire, and herd size and cattle movements were obtained from the cattle tuberculosis testing database and the British Cattle Movement Service. Hierarchical statistical models were used to investigate associations between cattle and herd variables and the continuous outcome percentage positive (PP) values from the ELISA test in unvaccinated herds. Results: There were 7 vaccinated herds, all with at least one seropositive bovine. In unvaccinated herds 83.2% had at least one BHV-1 seropositive bovine, and the mean cattle and herd BHV-1 seroprevalence were 42.5% and 43.1% respectively. There were positive associations between PP value, age, herd size, presence of dairy cattle. Adult cattle in herds with grower cattle had lower PP values than those in herds without grower cattle. Purchased cattle had significantly lower PP values than homebred cattle, whereas cattle in herds that were totally restocked after the foot-and-mouth epidemic in 2001 had significantly higher PP values than those in continuously stocked herds. Samples taken in spring and summer had significantly lower PP values than those taken in winter, whereas those taken in autumn had significantly higher PP values than those taken in winter. The risks estimated from a logistic regression model with a binary outcome (seropositive yes/no) were similar. Conclusion: The prevalence of BHV-1 seropositivity in cattle and herds has increased since the 1970s. Although the study population prevalence of BHV-1 was temporally stable during study period, the associations between serological status and cattle age, herd size, herd type, presence of young stock and restocked versus continuously stocked herds indicate that there is heterogeneity between herds and so potential for further spread of BHV-1 within and between herds

A four year longitudinal sero-epidemiology study of Neospora caninum in adult cattle from 114 cattle herds in south west England : associations with age, herd and dam-offspring pairs

Background: Neosporosis caused by the protozoan parasite Neospora caninum, is an economically important cause of abortion, stillbirth, low milk yield, reduced weight gain and premature culling in cattle. Consequently, a seroepidemiological study of N. caninum antibodies was conducted in England with 29,782 samples of blood taken from 15,736 cattle from 114 herds visited on three occasions at yearly intervals. Herds were categorised into lower (< 10%) and higher (≥ 10%) median herd seroprevalence. Hierarchical models were run to investigate associations between the sample to positive (S/P) ratio and herd and cattle factors. Results: Ninety-four percent of herds had at least one seropositive cow; 12.9% of adult cattle had at least one seropositive test. Approximately 90% of herds were seropositive at all visits; 9 herds (8%) changed serological status between visits. The median N. caninum seroprevalence in positive herds was 10% (range 0.4% to 58.8%). There was a positive association between the serostatus of offspring and dams that were ever seropositive. In the hierarchical model of low seroprevalence herds there was no significant association between S/P ratio and cattle age. There was a significantly lower S/P ratio in cattle in herds that were totally restocked after the foot-and-mouth epidemic of 2001 compared with those from continuously stocked herds and cattle purchased into these herds had a higher S/P ratio than homebred cattle. In the model of high seroprevalence herds the S/P ratio increased with cattle age, but was not associated with restocking or cattle origin. Conclusion: There were no strong temporal changes in herd seroprevalence of N. caninum but 90% of herds had some seropositive cattle over this time period. Vertical transmission from seropositive dams appeared to occur in all herds. In herds with a high seroprevalence the increasing S/P ratio in 2–4 year old cattle is suggestive of exposure to N. caninum: horizontal transmission between adult cattle, infection from a local source or recrudescence and abortions. Between-herd movements of infected cattle enhance the spread of N. caninum, particularly into low seroprevalence herds. Some restocked herds had little exposure to N. caninum, while in others infection had spread in the time since restocking

Spectroscopic confirmation of an ultra-faint galaxy at the epoch of reionization

Within one billion years of the Big Bang, intergalactic hydrogen was ionized by sources emitting ultraviolet and higher energy photons. This was the final phenomenon to globally affect all the baryons (visible matter) in the Universe. It is referred to as cosmic reionization and is an integral component of cosmology. It is broadly expected that intrinsically faint galaxies were the primary ionizing sources due to their abundance in this epoch. However, at the highest redshifts ($z>7.5$; lookback time 13.1 Gyr), all galaxies with spectroscopic confirmations to date are intrinsically bright and, therefore, not necessarily representative of the general population. Here, we report the unequivocal spectroscopic detection of a low luminosity galaxy at $z>7.5$. We detected the Lyman-$\alpha$ emission line at $\sim 10504$ {\AA} in two separate observations with MOSFIRE on the Keck I Telescope and independently with the Hubble Space Telescope's slit-less grism spectrograph, implying a source redshift of $z = 7.640 \pm 0.001$. The galaxy is gravitationally magnified by the massive galaxy cluster MACS J1423.8+2404 ($z = 0.545$), with an estimated intrinsic luminosity of $M_{AB} = -19.6 \pm 0.2$ mag and a stellar mass of $M_{\star} = 3.0^{+1.5}_{-0.8} \times 10^8$ solar masses. Both are an order of magnitude lower than the four other Lyman-$\alpha$ emitters currently known at $z > 7.5$, making it probably the most distant representative source of reionization found to date

Detection of Lyman-Alpha Emission From a Triple Imaged z=6.85 Galaxy Behind MACS J2129.4-0741

We report the detection of Ly$\alpha$ emission at $\sim9538$\AA{} in the Keck/DEIMOS and \HST WFC3 G102 grism data from a triply-imaged galaxy at $z=6.846\pm0.001$ behind galaxy cluster MACS J2129.4$-$0741. Combining the emission line wavelength with broadband photometry, line ratio upper limits, and lens modeling, we rule out the scenario that this emission line is \oii at $z=1.57$. After accounting for magnification, we calculate the weighted average of the intrinsic Ly$\alpha$ luminosity to be $\sim1.3\times10^{42}~\mathrm{erg}~\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ and Ly$\alpha$ equivalent width to be $74\pm15$\AA{}. Its intrinsic UV absolute magnitude at 1600\AA{} is $-18.6\pm0.2$ mag and stellar mass $(1.5\pm0.3)\times10^{7}~M_{\odot}$, making it one of the faintest (intrinsic $L_{UV}\sim0.14~L_{UV}^*$) galaxies with Ly$\alpha$ detection at $z\sim7$ to date. Its stellar mass is in the typical range for the galaxies thought to dominate the reionization photon budget at $z\gtrsim7$; the inferred Ly$\alpha$ escape fraction is high ($\gtrsim 10$\%), which could be common for sub-$L^*$ $z\gtrsim7$ galaxies with Ly$\alpha$ emission. This galaxy offers a glimpse of the galaxy population that is thought to drive reionization, and it shows that gravitational lensing is an important avenue to probe the sub-$L^*$ galaxy population.Comment: Accepted by ApJ Letter

Association of a Workplace Sales Ban on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages With Employee Consumption of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages and Health.

ImportanceReductions in sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake can improve health, but are difficult for individuals to achieve on their own.ObjectivesTo evaluate whether a workplace SSB sales ban was associated with SSB intake and cardiometabolic health among employees and whether a brief motivational intervention provides added benefits to the sales ban.Design, setting, and participantsThis before-after study and additional randomized trial conducted from July 28, 2015, to October 16, 2016, at a Northern California university and hospital assessed SSB intake, anthropometrics, and cardiometabolic biomarkers among 214 full-time English-speaking employees who were frequent SSB consumers (≥360 mL [≥12 fl oz] per day) before and 10 months after implementation of an SSB sales ban in a large workplace, with half the employees randomized to receive a brief motivational intervention targeting SSB reduction.InterventionsThe employer stopped selling SSBs in all workplace venues, and half the sample was randomized to receive a brief motivational intervention and the other half was a control group that did not receive the intervention. This intervention was modeled on standard brief motivational interventions for alcohol used in the workplace that promote health knowledge and goal setting.Main outcomes and measuresOutcomes included changes in SSB intake, Homeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR), and measures of abdominal adiposity. The primary associations tested were the correlation between changes in SSB intake and changes in HOMA-IR.ResultsAmong the 214 study participants, 124 (57.9%) were women, with a mean (SD) age of 41.2 (11.0) years and a baseline mean (SD) body mass index of 29.4 (6.5). They reported a mean daily intake of 1050 mL (35 fl oz) of SSBs at baseline and 540 mL (18 fl oz) at follow-up-a 510-mL (17-fl oz) (48.6%) decrease (P &lt; .001). Reductions in SSB intake correlated with improvements in HOMA-IR (r = 0.16; P = .03). Those not randomized to receive the brief intervention reduced their SSB intake by a mean (SD) of 246.0 (84.0) mL (8.2 [2.8] fl oz), while those also receiving the brief intervention reduced SSB intake by 762.0 (84.0) mL (25.4 [2.8] fl oz). From baseline to follow-up, there were significant reductions in mean (SE) waist circumference (2.1 [2.8] cm; P &lt; .001).Conclusions and relevanceThis study's findings suggest that the workplace sales ban was associated with a reduction in SSB intake and a significant reduction in waist circumference among employees within 10 months. The randomized clinical trial portion of this study found that targeting those at high risk with a brief motivational intervention led to additional improvements. Workplace sales bans may offer a promising new private-sector strategy for reducing the health harms of SSB intake.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02585336

Longitudinal fNIRS and EEG metrics of habituation and novelty detection are correlated in 1–18-month-old infants

Introduction: Habituation and novelty detection are two fundamental and widely studied neurocognitive processes. Whilst neural responses to repetitive and novel sensory input have been well-documented across a range of neuroimaging modalities, it is not yet fully understood how well these different modalities are able to describe consistent neural response patterns. This is particularly true for infants and young children, as different assessment modalities might show differential sensitivity to underlying neural processes across age. Thus far, many neurodevelopmental studies are limited in either sample size, longitudinal scope or breadth of measures employed, impeding investigations of how well common developmental trends can be captured via different methods./ Method: This study assessed habituation and novelty detection in N = 204 infants using EEG and fNIRS measured in two separate paradigms, but within the same study visit, at 1, 5 and 18 months of age in an infant cohort in rural Gambia. EEG was acquired during an auditory oddball paradigm during which infants were presented with Frequent, Infrequent and Trial Unique sounds. In the fNIRS paradigm, infants were familiarised to a sentence of infant-directed speech, novelty detection was assessed via a change in speaker. Indices for habituation and novelty detection were extracted for both EEG and NIRS./ Results: We found evidence for weak to medium positive correlations between responses on the fNIRS and the EEG paradigms for indices of both habituation and novelty detection at most age points. Habituation indices correlated across modalities at 1 month and 5 months but not 18 months of age, and novelty responses were significantly correlated at 5 months and 18 months, but not at 1 month. Infants who showed robust habituation responses also showed robust novelty responses across both assessment modalities./ Discussion: This study is the first to examine concurrent correlations across two neuroimaging modalities across several longitudinal age points. Examining habituation and novelty detection, we show that despite the use of two different testing modalities, stimuli and timescale, it is possible to extract common neural metrics across a wide age range in infants. We suggest that these positive correlations might be strongest at times of greatest developmental change

Rigor and Ethics in the World of Big-team Qualitative Data: Experiences From Research in International Development

In the large international projects where many qualitative researchers work, generating qualitative Big Data, data sharing represents the status quo. This is rarely acknowledged, even though the ethical implications are considerable and span both process and product. I argue that big-team qualitative researchers can strengthen claims to rigor in analysis (the product) by drawing on a growing body of knowledge about how to do credible secondary analysis. Since this necessitates a full account of how the research and the analysis are done (the process), I consider the structural disincentives for providing these. Debates around credibility and rigor are not new to qualitative research in international development, but they intensify when new actors such as program evaluators and quantitative researchers use qualitative methods on a large scale. In this context, I look at the utility of guidelines used by these actors to ensure the quality of qualitative research. I ask whether these offer pragmatic suggestions to improve its quality, recognizing the common and hierarchized separation between the generation and interpretation of data, or conversely, whether they set impossible standards and fail to recognize the differences between and respective strengths of qualitative and quantitative research