Small firms, global economies: The economic sociology of the northwest Atlantic sea urchin industry

This dissertation examines the organizational dynamics of firms operating in the East Coast sea urchin industry. First, I examine the confluence of economic and political conditions under which the industry evolved. As a part of the export driven growth of the past decade in the US the East Coast sea urchin industry benefited from political conditions, which encouraged development of global markets for US products. Along with this, the Japanese have displayed a seemingly insatiable demand for sea urchin roe through the 1990s. In 1971 the governance of the international monetary system changed from a fixed to floating exchange rate. The yen\u27s value began to increase compared to other currencies making export of products to Japan financially viable. These economic and political conditions set the stage for the East Coast sea urchin industry. To explain how the industry developed I draw on theory and research from Institutional Economics and Economic Sociology to address entrepreneurial processes, labor market processes, and exchange processes. A supply of sea urchins existed on the East Coast as the Japanese demand grew, but the link between supply and demand remained unfilled. Entrepreneurs in the industry established firms to link supply and demand. With a link between supply and demand established, firms were faced with mobilizing a labor force for the new industry. Labor market processes include the recruitment of workers by entrepreneurs and the development of skills and technologies for completing essential activities within the productive system. With the recruitment of labor it becomes necessary to coordinate the essential activities of the productive system. Participants coordinate exchange within a productive system through hierarchies, networks or markets. As the East Coast sea urchin industry was established and evolved these three processes (entrepreneurial, labor market, and exchange) combined to facilitate establishment and growth of the new industry. The entrepreneurs that moved into the new industry attempted to increase the size of their firms and the amount of production. Existing production arrangements on the working waterfront provided access to the natural resource, flexible technologies, an existing knowledge base, and unique social arrangements that allowed the easy movement of a labor force into the new industry. Finally, a market form of organizing exchange developed with an institutionalized distrust between participants. The case of the East Coast sea urchin industry provides an opportunity to examine the sociology of economic life. Its position within a global economy, and its economic boom characteristics provide a valuable empirical case study in the growing field of economic sociology. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Discovery of an Ultrasoft X-ray Transient Source in the 2XMM Catalog: a Tidal Disruption Event Candidate

We have discovered an ultrasoft X-ray transient source, 2XMMi J184725.1-631724, which was detected serendipitously in two XMM-Newton observations in the direction of the center of the galaxy IC 4765-f01-1504 at a redshift of 0.0353. These two observations were separated by 211 days, with the 0.2-10 keV absorbed flux increasing by a factor of about 9. Their spectra are best described by a model dominated by a thermal disk or a single-temperature blackbody component (contributing >80% of the flux) plus a weak power-law component. The thermal emission has a temperature of a few tens of eV, and the weak power-law component has a photon index of ~3.5. Similar to the black hole X-ray binaries in the thermal state, our source exhibits an accretion disk whose luminosity appears to follow the $L\propto T^4$ relation. This would indicate that the black hole mass is about 10^5-10^6 M_sun using the best-fitting inner disk radius. Both XMM-Newton observations show variability of about 21% on timescales of hours, which can be explained as due to fast variations in the mass accretion rate. The source was not detected by ROSAT in an observation in 1992, indicating a variability factor of >64 over longer timescales. The source was not detected again in X-rays in a Swift observation in 2011 February, implying a flux decrease by a factor of >12 since the last XMM-Newton observation. The transient nature, in addition to the extreme softness of the X-ray spectra and the inactivity of the galaxy implied by the lack of strong optical emission lines, makes it a candidate tidal disruption event. If this is the case, the first XMM-Newton observation would have been in the rising phase, and the second one in the decay phase.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

Erythrocyte G Protein as a Novel Target for Malarial Chemotherapy

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a serious health problem because resistance develops to all currently used drugs when their parasite targets mutate. Novel antimalarial drug targets are urgently needed to reduce global morbidity and mortality. Our prior results suggested that inhibiting erythrocyte G(s) signaling blocked invasion by the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We investigated the erythrocyte guanine nucleotide regulatory protein G(s) as a novel antimalarial target. Erythrocyte “ghosts” loaded with a G(s) peptide designed to block G(s) interaction with its receptors, were blocked in β-adrenergic agonist-induced signaling. This finding directly demonstrates that erythrocyte G(s) is functional and that propranolol, an antagonist of G protein–coupled β-adrenergic receptors, dampens G(s) activity in erythrocytes. We subsequently used the ghost system to directly link inhibition of host G(s) to parasite entry. In addition, we discovered that ghosts loaded with the peptide were inhibited in intracellular parasite maturation. Propranolol also inhibited blood-stage parasite growth, as did other β(2)-antagonists. β-blocker growth inhibition appeared to be due to delay in the terminal schizont stage. When used in combination with existing antimalarials in cell culture, propranolol reduced the 50% and 90% inhibitory concentrations for existing drugs against P. falciparum by 5- to 10-fold and was also effective in reducing drug dose in animal models of infection. CONCLUSIONS: Together these data establish that, in addition to invasion, erythrocyte G protein signaling is needed for intracellular parasite proliferation and thus may present a novel antimalarial target. The results provide proof of the concept that erythrocyte G(s) antagonism offers a novel strategy to fight infection and that it has potential to be used to develop combination therapies with existing antimalarials

Measurement of the cosmic ray spectrum above 4×10184{\times}10^{18} eV using inclined events detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory

A measurement of the cosmic-ray spectrum for energies exceeding $4{\times}10^{18}$ eV is presented, which is based on the analysis of showers with zenith angles greater than $60^{\circ}$ detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2013. The measured spectrum confirms a flux suppression at the highest energies. Above $5.3{\times}10^{18}$ eV, the "ankle", the flux can be described by a power law $E^{-\gamma}$ with index $\gamma=2.70 \pm 0.02 \,\text{(stat)} \pm 0.1\,\text{(sys)}$ followed by a smooth suppression region. For the energy ($E_\text{s}$) at which the spectral flux has fallen to one-half of its extrapolated value in the absence of suppression, we find $E_\text{s}=(5.12\pm0.25\,\text{(stat)}^{+1.0}_{-1.2}\,\text{(sys)}){\times}10^{19}$ eV.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Energy Estimation of Cosmic Rays with the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) is part of the Pierre Auger Observatory and is used to detect the radio emission of cosmic-ray air showers. These observations are compared to the data of the surface detector stations of the Observatory, which provide well-calibrated information on the cosmic-ray energies and arrival directions. The response of the radio stations in the 30 to 80 MHz regime has been thoroughly calibrated to enable the reconstruction of the incoming electric field. For the latter, the energy deposit per area is determined from the radio pulses at each observer position and is interpolated using a two-dimensional function that takes into account signal asymmetries due to interference between the geomagnetic and charge-excess emission components. The spatial integral over the signal distribution gives a direct measurement of the energy transferred from the primary cosmic ray into radio emission in the AERA frequency range. We measure 15.8 MeV of radiation energy for a 1 EeV air shower arriving perpendicularly to the geomagnetic field. This radiation energy -- corrected for geometrical effects -- is used as a cosmic-ray energy estimator. Performing an absolute energy calibration against the surface-detector information, we observe that this radio-energy estimator scales quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy as expected for coherent emission. We find an energy resolution of the radio reconstruction of 22% for the data set and 17% for a high-quality subset containing only events with at least five radio stations with signal.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Measurement of the Radiation Energy in the Radio Signal of Extensive Air Showers as a Universal Estimator of Cosmic-Ray Energy

We measure the energy emitted by extensive air showers in the form of radio emission in the frequency range from 30 to 80 MHz. Exploiting the accurate energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory, we obtain a radiation energy of 15.8 \pm 0.7 (stat) \pm 6.7 (sys) MeV for cosmic rays with an energy of 1 EeV arriving perpendicularly to a geomagnetic field of 0.24 G, scaling quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy. A comparison with predictions from state-of-the-art first-principle calculations shows agreement with our measurement. The radiation energy provides direct access to the calorimetric energy in the electromagnetic cascade of extensive air showers. Comparison with our result thus allows the direct calibration of any cosmic-ray radio detector against the well-established energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Supplemental material in the ancillary file

Correction for Johansson et al., An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

Correction for “An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics,” by Michael A. Johansson, Karyn M. Apfeldorf, Scott Dobson, Jason Devita, Anna L. Buczak, Benjamin Baugher, Linda J. Moniz, Thomas Bagley, Steven M. Babin, Erhan Guven, Teresa K. Yamana, Jeffrey Shaman, Terry Moschou, Nick Lothian, Aaron Lane, Grant Osborne, Gao Jiang, Logan C. Brooks, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Justin Lessler, Nicholas G. Reich, Derek A. T. Cummings, Stephen A. Lauer, Sean M. Moore, Hannah E. Clapham, Rachel Lowe, Trevor C. Bailey, Markel García-Díez, Marilia Sá Carvalho, Xavier Rodó, Tridip Sardar, Richard Paul, Evan L. Ray, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Alexandria C. Brown, Xi Meng, Osonde Osoba, Raffaele Vardavas, David Manheim, Melinda Moore, Dhananjai M. Rao, Travis C. Porco, Sarah Ackley, Fengchen Liu, Lee Worden, Matteo Convertino, Yang Liu, Abraham Reddy, Eloy Ortiz, Jorge Rivero, Humberto Brito, Alicia Juarrero, Leah R. Johnson, Robert B. Gramacy, Jeremy M. Cohen, Erin A. Mordecai, Courtney C. Murdock, Jason R. Rohr, Sadie J. Ryan, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, Daniel P. Weikel, Antarpreet Jutla, Rakibul Khan, Marissa Poultney, Rita R. Colwell, Brenda Rivera-García, Christopher M. Barker, Jesse E. Bell, Matthew Biggerstaff, David Swerdlow, Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Brett M. Forshey, Juli Trtanj, Jason Asher, Matt Clay, Harold S. Margolis, Andrew M. Hebbeler, Dylan George, and Jean-Paul Chretien, which was first published November 11, 2019; 10.1073/pnas.1909865116. The authors note that the affiliation for Xavier Rodó should instead appear as Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) and Climate and Health Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal). The corrected author and affiliation lines appear below. The online version has been corrected

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

A Universal Power-law Prescription for Variability from Synthetic Images of Black Hole Accretion Flows

We present a framework for characterizing the spatiotemporal power spectrum of the variability expected from the horizon-scale emission structure around supermassive black holes, and we apply this framework to a library of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations and associated general relativistic ray-traced images relevant for Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of Sgr A*. We find that the variability power spectrum is generically a red-noise process in both the temporal and spatial dimensions, with the peak in power occurring on the longest timescales and largest spatial scales. When both the time-averaged source structure and the spatially integrated light-curve variability are removed, the residual power spectrum exhibits a universal broken power-law behavior. On small spatial frequencies, the residual power spectrum rises as the square of the spatial frequency and is proportional to the variance in the centroid of emission. Beyond some peak in variability power, the residual power spectrum falls as that of the time-averaged source structure, which is similar across simulations; this behavior can be naturally explained if the variability arises from a multiplicative random field that has a steeper high-frequency power-law index than that of the time-averaged source structure. We briefly explore the ability of power spectral variability studies to constrain physical parameters relevant for the GRMHD simulations, which can be scaled to provide predictions for black holes in a range of systems in the optically thin regime. We present specific expectations for the behavior of the M87* and Sgr A* accretion flows as observed by the EHT