Spatial and Temporal Association of Outbreaks of H5N1 Influenza Virus Infection in Wild Birds with the 0°C Isotherm

Wild bird movements and aggregations following spells of cold weather may have resulted in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 in Europe during the winter of 2005–2006. Waterbirds are constrained in winter to areas where bodies of water remain unfrozen in order to feed. On the one hand, waterbirds may choose to winter as close as possible to their breeding grounds in order to conserve energy for subsequent reproduction, and may be displaced by cold fronts. On the other hand, waterbirds may choose to winter in regions where adverse weather conditions are rare, and may be slowed by cold fronts upon their journey back to the breeding grounds, which typically starts before the end of winter. Waterbirds will thus tend to aggregate along cold fronts close to the 0°C isotherm during winter, creating conditions that favour HPAIV H5N1 transmission and spread. We determined that the occurrence of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in waterbirds in Europe during the winter of 2005–2006 was associated with temperatures close to 0°C. The analysis suggests a significant spatial and temporal association of outbreaks caused by HPAIV H5N1 in wild birds with maximum surface air temperatures of 0°C–2°C on the day of the outbreaks and the two preceding days. At locations where waterbird census data have been collected since 1990, maximum mallard counts occurred when average and maximum surface air temperatures were 0°C and 3°C, respectively. Overall, the abundance of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and common pochards (Aythya ferina) was highest when surface air temperatures were lower than the mean temperatures of the region investigated. The analysis implies that waterbird movements associated with cold weather, and congregation of waterbirds along the 0°C isotherm likely contributed to the spread and geographical distribution of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in wild birds in Europe during the winter of 2005–2006

Testing A (Stringy) Model of Quantum Gravity

I discuss a specific model of space-time foam, inspired by the modern non-perturbative approach to string theory (D-branes). The model views our world as a three brane, intersecting with D-particles that represent stringy quantum gravity effects, which can be real or virtual. In this picture, matter is represented generically by (closed or open) strings on the D3 brane propagating in such a background. Scattering of the (matter) strings off the D-particles causes recoil of the latter, which in turn results in a distortion of the surrounding space-time fluid and the formation of (microscopic, i.e. Planckian size) horizons around the defects. As a mean-field result, the dispersion relation of the various particle excitations is modified, leading to non-trivial optical properties of the space time, for instance a non-trivial refractive index for the case of photons or other massless probes. Such models make falsifiable predictions, that may be tested experimentally in the foreseeable future. I describe a few such tests, ranging from observations of light from distant gamma-ray-bursters and ultra high energy cosmic rays, to tests using gravity-wave interferometric devices and terrestrial particle physics experients involving, for instance, neutral kaons.Comment: 25 pages LATEX, four figures incorporated, uses special proceedings style. Invited talk at the third international conference on Dark Matter in Astro and Particle Physics, DARK2000, Heidelberg, Germany, July 10-15 200

Transmission of Avian Influenza A Viruses among Species in an Artificial Barnyard

Waterfowl and shorebirds harbor and shed all hemagglutinin and neuraminidase subtypes of influenza A viruses and interact in nature with a broad range of other avian and mammalian species to which they might transmit such viruses. Estimating the efficiency and importance of such cross-species transmission using epidemiological approaches is difficult. We therefore addressed this question by studying transmission of low pathogenic H5 and H7 viruses from infected ducks to other common animals in a quasi-natural laboratory environment designed to mimic a common barnyard. Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) recently infected with H5N2 or H7N3 viruses were introduced into a room housing other mallards plus chickens, blackbirds, rats and pigeons, and transmission was assessed by monitoring virus shedding (ducks) or seroconversion (other species) over the following 4 weeks. Additional animals of each species were directly inoculated with virus to characterize the effect of a known exposure. In both barnyard experiments, virus accumulated to high titers in the shared water pool. The H5N2 virus was transmitted from infected ducks to other ducks and chickens in the room either directly or through environmental contamination, but not to rats or blackbirds. Ducks infected with the H7N2 virus transmitted directly or indirectly to all other species present. Chickens and blackbirds directly inoculated with these viruses shed significant amounts of virus and seroconverted; rats and pigeons developed antiviral antibodies, but, except for one pigeon, failed to shed virus

Environmental Levels of the Antiviral Oseltamivir Induce Development of Resistance Mutation H274Y in Influenza A/H1N1 Virus in Mallards

Oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) is the most widely used drug against influenza infections and is extensively stockpiled worldwide as part of pandemic preparedness plans. However, resistance is a growing problem and in 2008–2009, seasonal human influenza A/H1N1 virus strains in most parts of the world carried the mutation H274Y in the neuraminidase gene which causes resistance to the drug. The active metabolite of oseltamivir, oseltamivir carboxylate (OC), is poorly degraded in sewage treatment plants and surface water and has been detected in aquatic environments where the natural influenza reservoir, dabbling ducks, can be exposed to the substance. To assess if resistance can develop under these circumstances, we infected mallards with influenza A/H1N1 virus and exposed the birds to 80 ng/L, 1 µg/L and 80 µg/L of OC through their sole water source. By sequencing the neuraminidase gene from fecal samples, we found that H274Y occurred at 1 µg/L of OC and rapidly dominated the viral population at 80 µg/L. IC50 for OC was increased from 2–4 nM in wild-type viruses to 400–700 nM in H274Y mutants as measured by a neuraminidase inhibition assay. This is consistent with the decrease in sensitivity to OC that has been noted among human clinical isolates carrying H274Y. Environmental OC levels have been measured to 58–293 ng/L during seasonal outbreaks and are expected to reach µg/L-levels during pandemics. Thus, resistance could be induced in influenza viruses circulating among wild ducks. As influenza viruses can cross species barriers, oseltamivir resistance could spread to human-adapted strains with pandemic potential disabling oseltamivir, a cornerstone in pandemic preparedness planning. We propose surveillance in wild birds as a measure to understand the resistance situation in nature and to monitor it over time. Strategies to lower environmental levels of OC include improved sewage treatment and, more importantly, a prudent use of antivirals

Disease Dynamics and Bird Migration—Linking Mallards Anas platyrhynchos and Subtype Diversity of the Influenza A Virus in Time and Space

The mallard Anas platyrhynchos is a reservoir species for influenza A virus in the northern hemisphere, with particularly high prevalence rates prior to as well as during its prolonged autumn migration. It has been proposed that the virus is brought from the breeding grounds and transmitted to conspecifics during subsequent staging during migration, and so a better understanding of the natal origin of staging ducks is vital to deciphering the dynamics of viral movement pathways. Ottenby is an important stopover site in southeast Sweden almost halfway downstream in the major Northwest European flyway, and is used by millions of waterfowl each year. Here, mallards were captured and sampled for influenza A virus infection, and positive samples were subtyped in order to study possible links to the natal area, which were determined by a novel approach combining banding recovery data and isotopic measurements (δ2H) of feathers grown on breeding grounds. Geographic assignments showed that the core natal areas of studied mallards were in Estonia, southern and central Finland, and northwestern Russia. This study demonstrates a clear temporal succession of latitudes of natal origin during the course of autumn migration. We also demonstrate a corresponding and concomitant shift in virus subtypes. Acknowledging that these two different patterns were based in part upon different data, a likely interpretation worth further testing is that the early arriving birds with more proximate origins have different influenza A subtypes than the more distantly originating late autumn birds. If true, this knowledge would allow novel insight into the origins and transmission of the influenza A virus among migratory hosts previously unavailable through conventional approaches

Genomic and SNP Analyses Demonstrate a Distant Separation of the Hospital and Community-Associated Clades of Enterococcus faecium

Recent studies have pointed to the existence of two subpopulations of Enterococcus faecium, one containing primarily commensal/community-associated (CA) strains and one that contains most clinical or hospital-associated (HA) strains, including those classified by multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) as belonging to the CC17 group. The HA subpopulation more frequently has IS16, pathogenicity island(s), and plasmids or genes associated with antibiotic resistance, colonization, and/or virulence. Supporting the two clades concept, we previously found a 3–10% difference between four genes from HA-clade strains vs. CA-clade strains, including 5% difference between pbp5-R of ampicillin-resistant, HA strains and pbp5-S of ampicillin-sensitive, CA strains. To further investigate the core genome of these subpopulations, we studied 100 genes from 21 E. faecium genome sequences; our analyses of concatenated sequences, SNPs, and individual genes all identified two distinct groups. With the concatenated sequence, HA-clade strains differed by 0–1% from one another while CA clade strains differed from each other by 0–1.1%, with 3.5–4.2% difference between the two clades. While many strains had a few genes that grouped in one clade with most of their genes in the other clade, one strain had 28% of its genes in the CA clade and 72% in the HA clade, consistent with the predicted role of recombination in the evolution of E. faecium. Using estimates for Escherichia coli, molecular clock calculations using sSNP analysis indicate that these two clades may have diverged ≥1 million years ago or, using the higher mutation rate for Bacillus anthracis, ∼300,000 years ago. These data confirm the existence of two clades of E. faecium and show that the differences between the HA and CA clades occur at the core genomic level and long preceded the modern antibiotic era

Spread of Avian Influenza Viruses by Common Teal (Anas crecca) in Europe

Since the recent spread of highly pathogenic (HP) H5N1 subtypes, avian influenza virus (AIV) dispersal has become an increasing focus of research. As for any other bird-borne pathogen, dispersal of these viruses is related to local and migratory movements of their hosts. In this study, we investigated potential AIV spread by Common Teal (Anas crecca) from the Camargue area, in the South of France, across Europe. Based on bird-ring recoveries, local duck population sizes and prevalence of infection with these viruses, we built an individual-based spatially explicit model describing bird movements, both locally (between wintering areas) and at the flyway scale. We investigated the effects of viral excretion duration and inactivation rate in water by simulating AIV spread with varying values for these two parameters. The results indicate that an efficient AIV dispersal in space is possible only for excretion durations longer than 7 days. Virus inactivation rate in the environment appears as a key parameter in the model because it allows local persistence of AIV over several months, the interval between two migratory periods. Virus persistence in water thus represents an important component of contamination risk as ducks migrate along their flyway. Based on the present modelling exercise, we also argue that HP H5N1 AIV is unlikely to be efficiently spread by Common Teal dispersal only