High-velocity white dwarfs: thick disk, not dark matter

We present an alternative interpretation of the nature of the extremely cool, high-velocity white dwarfs identified by Oppenheimer et al (2001) in a high-latitude astrometric survey. We argue that the velocity distribution of the majority of the sample is more consistent with the high-velocity tail of a rotating population, probably the thick disk, rather than a pressure-supported halo system. Indeed, the observed numbers are well matched by predictions based on the kinematics of a complete sample of nearby M dwarfs. Analysing only stars showing retrograde motion gives a local density close to that expected for white dwarfs in the stellar (R^-3.5) halo. Under our interpretation, none of the white dwarfs need be assigned to the dark-matter, heavy halo. However, luminosity functions derived from observations of these stars can set important constraints on the age of the oldest stars in the Galactic Disk.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures; accepted for ApJ, 29 May 200

Assessment of the radioanatomic positioning of the osteoarthritic knee in serial radiographs: comparison of three acquisition techniques

SummaryObjectiveRecent studies using various standardized radiographic acquisition techniques have demonstrated the necessity of reproducible radioanatomic alignment of the knee to assure precise measurements of medial tibiofemoral joint space width (JSW). The objective of the present study was to characterize the longitudinal performance of several acquisition techniques with respect to long-term reproducibility of positioning of the knee, and the impact of changes in positioning on the rate and variability of joint space narrowing (JSN).MethodsEighty subjects were randomly selected from each of three cohorts followed in recent studies of the radiographic progression of knee osteoarthritis (OA): the Health ABC study (paired fixed-flexion [FF] radiographs taken at a 36-month interval); the Glucosamine Arthritis Intervention Trial (GAIT) (paired metatarsophalangeal [MTP] radiographs obtained at a 12-month interval), and a randomized clinical trial of doxycycline (fluoroscopically assisted semiflexed anteroposterior (AP) radiographs taken at a 16-month interval).Manual measurements were obtained from each radiograph to represent markers of radioanatomic positioning of the knee (alignment of the medial tibial plateau and X-ray beam, knee rotation, femorotibial angle) and to evaluate minimum JSW (mJSW) in the medial tibiofemoral compartment. The effects on the mean annualized rate of JSN and on the variability of that rate of highly reproduced vs variable positioning of the knee in serial radiographs were evaluated.ResultsParallel or near-parallel alignment was achieved significantly more frequently with the fluoroscopically guided positioning used in the semiflexed AP protocol than with either the non-fluoroscopic FF or MTP protocol (68% vs 14% for both FF and MTP protocols when measured at the midpoint of the medial compartment; 75% vs 26% and 34% for the FF and MTP protocols, respectively, when measured at the site of mJSW; P<0.001 for each). Knee rotation was reproduced more frequently in semiflexed AP radiographs than in FF radiographs (66% vs 45%, P<0.01). In contrast, the FF technique yielded a greater proportion of paired radiographs in which the femorotibial angle was accurately reproduced than the semiflexed AP or MTP protocol (78% vs 59% and 56%, respectively, P<0.01 for each). Notably, only paired radiographs with parallel or near-parallel alignment exhibited a mean rate of JSN (±SD) in the OA knee that was more rapid and less variable than that measured in all knees (0.186±0.274mm/year, standardized response to mean [SRM]=0.68 vs 0.128±0.291mm/year, SRM=0.44).ConclusionThis study confirms the importance of parallel radioanatomic alignment of the anterior and posterior margins of the medial tibial plateau in detecting JSN in subjects with knee OA. The use of radiographic methods that assure parallel alignment during serial X-ray examinations will permit the design of more efficient studies of biomarkers of OA progression and of structure modification in knee OA

A review of the methodological features of systematic reviews in maternal medicine

Background In maternal medicine, research evidence is scattered making it difficult to access information for clinical decision making. Systematic reviews of good methodological quality are essential to provide valid inferences and to produce usable evidence summaries to guide management. This review assesses the methodological features of existing systematic reviews in maternal medicine, comparing Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews in maternal medicine. Methods Medline, Embase, Database of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE) and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) were searched for relevant reviews published between 2001 and 2006. We selected those reviews in which a minimum of two databases were searched and the primary outcome was related to the maternal condition. The selected reviews were assessed for information on framing of question, literature search and methods of review. Results Out of 2846 citations, 68 reviews were selected. Among these, 39 (57%) were Cochrane reviews. Most of the reviews (50/68, 74%) evaluated therapeutic interventions. Overall, 54/68 (79%) addressed a focussed question. Although 64/68 (94%) reviews had a detailed search description, only 17/68 (25%) searched without language restriction. 32/68 (47%) attempted to include unpublished data and 11/68 (16%) assessed for the risk of missing studies quantitatively. The reviews had deficiencies in the assessment of validity of studies and exploration for heterogeneity. When compared to Cochrane reviews, other reviews were significantly inferior in specifying questions (OR 20.3, 95% CI 1.1–381.3, p = 0.04), framing focussed questions (OR 30.9, 95% CI 3.7- 256.2, p = 0.001), use of unpublished data (OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.9–16.4, p = 0.002), assessment for heterogeneity (OR 38.1, 95%CI 2.1, 688.2, p = 0.01) and use of meta-analyses (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.3–10.8, p = 0.02). Conclusion This study identifies areas which have a strong influence on maternal morbidity and mortality but lack good quality systematic reviews. Overall quality of the existing systematic reviews was variable. Cochrane reviews were of better quality as compared to other reviews. There is a need for good quality systematic reviews to inform practice in maternal medicine

Biomarkers of Immunotoxicity for Environmental and Public Health Research

The immune response plays an important role in the pathophysiology of numerous diseases including asthma, autoimmunity and cancer. Application of biomarkers of immunotoxicity in epidemiology studies and human clinical trials can improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie the associations between environmental exposures and development of these immune-mediated diseases. Immunological biomarkers currently used in environmental health studies include detection of key components of innate and adaptive immunity (e.g., complement, immunoglobulin and cell subsets) as well as functional responses and activation of key immune cells. The use of high-throughput assays, including flow cytometry, Luminex, and Multi-spot cytokine detection methods can further provide quantitative analysis of immune effects. Due to the complexity and redundancy of the immune response, an integrated assessment of several components of the immune responses is needed. The rapidly expanding field of immunoinformatics will also aid in the synthesis of the vast amount of data being generated. This review discusses and provides examples of how the identification and development of immunological biomarkers for use in studies of environmental exposures and immune-mediated disorders can be achieved

Is blood pressure reduction a valid surrogate endpoint for stroke prevention? an analysis incorporating a systematic review of randomised controlled trials, a by-trial weighted errors-in-variables regression, the surrogate threshold effect (STE) and the biomarker-surrogacy (BioSurrogate) evaluation schema (BSES)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Blood pressure is considered to be a leading example of a valid surrogate endpoint. The aims of this study were to (i) formally evaluate systolic and diastolic blood pressure reduction as a surrogate endpoint for stroke prevention and (ii) determine what blood pressure reduction would predict a stroke benefit.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We identified randomised trials of at least six months duration comparing any pharmacologic anti-hypertensive treatment to placebo or no treatment, and reporting baseline blood pressure, on-trial blood pressure, and fatal and non-fatal stroke. Trials with fewer than five strokes in at least one arm were excluded. Errors-in-variables weighted least squares regression modelled the reduction in stroke as a function of systolic blood pressure reduction and diastolic blood pressure reduction respectively. The lower 95% prediction band was used to determine the minimum systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure difference, the surrogate threshold effect (STE), below which there would be no predicted stroke benefit. The STE was used to generate the surrogate threshold effect proportion (STEP), a surrogacy metric, which with the R-squared trial-level association was used to evaluate blood pressure as a surrogate endpoint for stroke using the Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema (BSES3).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 18 qualifying trials representing all pharmacologic drug classes of antihypertensives, assuming a reliability coefficient of 0.9, the surrogate threshold effect for a stroke benefit was 7.1 mmHg for systolic blood pressure and 2.4 mmHg for diastolic blood pressure. The trial-level association was 0.41 and 0.64 and the STEP was 66% and 78% for systolic and diastolic blood pressure respectively. The STE and STEP were more robust to measurement error in the independent variable than R-squared trial-level associations. Using the BSES3, assuming a reliability coefficient of 0.9, systolic blood pressure was a B + grade and diastolic blood pressure was an A grade surrogate endpoint for stroke prevention. In comparison, using the same stroke data sets, no STEs could be estimated for cardiovascular (CV) mortality or all-cause mortality reduction, although the STE for CV mortality approached 25 mmHg for systolic blood pressure.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this report we provide the first surrogate threshold effect (STE) values for systolic and diastolic blood pressure. We suggest the STEs have face and content validity, evidenced by the inclusivity of trial populations, subject populations and pharmacologic intervention populations in their calculation. We propose that the STE and STEP metrics offer another method of evaluating the evidence supporting surrogate endpoints. We demonstrate how surrogacy evaluations are strengthened if formally evaluated within specific-context evaluation frameworks using the Biomarker- Surrogate Evaluation Schema (BSES3), and we discuss the implications of our evaluation of blood pressure on other biomarkers and patient-reported instruments in relation to surrogacy metrics and trial design.</p

Robust Biomarkers: Methodologically Tracking Causal Processes in Alzheimer’s Measurement

In biomedical measurement, biomarkers are used to achieve reliable prediction of, and useful causal information about patient outcomes while minimizing complexity of measurement, resources, and invasiveness. A biomarker is an assayable metric that discloses the status of a biological process of interest, be it normative, pathophysiological, or in response to intervention. The greatest utility from biomarkers comes from their ability to help clinicians (and researchers) make and evaluate clinical decisions. In this paper we discuss a specific methodological use of clinical biomarkers in pharmacological measurement: Some biomarkers, called ‘surrogate markers’, are used to substitute for a clinically meaningful endpoint corresponding to events and their penultimate risk factors. We confront the reliability of clinical biomarkers that are used to gather information about clinically meaningful endpoints. Our aim is to present a systematic methodology for assessing the reliability of multiple surrogate markers (and biomarkers in general). To do this we draw upon the robustness analysis literature in the philosophy of science and the empirical use of clinical biomarkers. After introducing robustness analysis we present two problems with biomarkers in relation to reliability. Next, we propose an intervention-based robustness methodology for organizing the reliability of biomarkers in general. We propose three relevant conditions for a robust methodology for biomarkers: (R1) Intervention-based demonstration of partial independence of modes: In biomarkers partial independence can be demonstrated through exogenous interventions that modify a process some number of “steps” removed from each of the markers. (R2) Comparison of diverging and converging results across biomarkers: By systematically comparing partially-independent biomarkers we can track under what conditions markers fail to converge in results, and under which conditions they successfully converge. (R3) Information within the context of theory: Through a systematic cross-comparison of the markers we can make causal conclusions as well as eliminate competing theories. We apply our robust methodology to currently developing Alzheimer’s research to show its usefulness for making causal conclusions

No short-cut in assessing trial quality: a case study

Assessing the quality of included trials is a central part of a systematic review. Many check-list type of instruments for doing this exist. Using a trial of antibiotic treatment for acute otitis media, Burke et al., BMJ, 1991, as the case study, this paper illustrates some limitations of the check-list approach to trial quality assessment. The general verdict from the check list type evaluations in nine relevant systematic reviews was that Burke et al. (1991) is a good quality trial. All relevant meta-analyses extensively used its data to formulate therapeutic evidence. My comprehensive evaluation, on the other hand, brought to the surface a series of serious problems in the design, conduct, analysis and report of this trial that were missed by the earlier evaluations. A check-list or instrument based approach, if used as a short-cut, may at times rate deeply flawed trials as good quality trials. Check lists are crucial but they need to be augmented with an in-depth review, and where possible, a scrutiny of the protocol, trial records, and original data. The extent and severity of the problems I uncovered for this particular trial warrant an independent audit before it is included in a systematic review

Genetic Tests for Ecological and Allopatric Speciation in Anoles on an Island Archipelago

From Darwin's study of the Galapagos and Wallace's study of Indonesia, islands have played an important role in evolutionary investigations, and radiations within archipelagos are readily interpreted as supporting the conventional view of allopatric speciation. Even during the ongoing paradigm shift towards other modes of speciation, island radiations, such as the Lesser Antillean anoles, are thought to exemplify this process. Geological and molecular phylogenetic evidence show that, in this archipelago, Martinique anoles provide several examples of secondary contact of island species. Four precursor island species, with up to 8 mybp divergence, met when their islands coalesced to form the current island of Martinique. Moreover, adjacent anole populations also show marked adaptation to distinct habitat zonation, allowing both allopatric and ecological speciation to be tested in this system. We take advantage of this opportunity of replicated island coalescence and independent ecological adaptation to carry out an extensive population genetic study of hypervariable neutral nuclear markers to show that even after these very substantial periods of spatial isolation these putative allospecies show less reproductive isolation than conspecific populations in adjacent habitats in all three cases of subsequent island coalescence. The degree of genetic interchange shows that while there is always a significant genetic signature of past allopatry, and this may be quite strong if the selection regime allows, there is no case of complete allopatric speciation, in spite of the strong primae facie case for it. Importantly there is greater genetic isolation across the xeric/rainforest ecotone than is associated with any secondary contact. This rejects the development of reproductive isolation in allopatric divergence, but supports the potential for ecological speciation, even though full speciation has not been achieved in this case. It also explains the paucity of anole species in the Lesser Antilles compared to the Greater Antilles