Characterisation of large changes in wind power for the day-ahead market using a fuzzy logic approach

Wind power has become one of the renewable resources with a major growth in the electricity market. However, due to its inherent variability, forecasting techniques are necessary for the optimum scheduling of the electric grid, specially during ramp events. These large changes in wind power may not be captured by wind power point forecasts even with very high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. In this paper, a fuzzy approach for wind power ramp characterisation is presented. The main benefit of this technique is that it avoids the binary definition of ramp event, allowing to identify changes in power out- put that can potentially turn into ramp events when the total percentage of change to be considered a ramp event is not met. To study the application of this technique, wind power forecasts were obtained and their corresponding error estimated using Genetic Programming (GP) and Quantile Regression Forests. The error distributions were incorporated into the characterisation process, which according to the results, improve significantly the ramp capture. Results are presented using colour maps, which provide a useful way to interpret the characteristics of the ramp events

C4b-binding protein binds to necrotic cells and DNA, limiting DNA release and inhibiting complement activation

After cell death, via apoptosis or necrosis, the uptake of dead cells by neighboring cells or phagocytes prevents the release of intracellular content. An array of molecules, including initiation molecules of the complement system, are involved in marking dead cells for uptake. After binding of these molecules, complement activation takes place, which when uncontrolled might result in a proinflammatory state. In the current study we demonstrate that complement inhibitor, C4b-binding protein (C4BP), binds strongly to necrotic cells, irrespective of the cell type used or the method of induction. After binding of the C4BP–protein S (PS) complex to necrotic cells via PS-phosphatidylserine and C4BP-DNA interactions, C4BP-PS inhibits complement activation on these cells. C4BP binds DNA via a patch of positively charged amino acids, mainly on the second complement control domain of the C4BP α-chain (affinity constant: 190 nM). Furthermore, C4BP limits DNA release from necrotic cells and inhibits DNA-mediated complement activation in solution. The C4BP–necrotic cell interaction also occurs in vivo as necrotic areas of arteriosclerotic plaques and of various cancers stain strongly positive for C4BP. This study describes a novel mechanism in which C4BP limits the inflammatory potential of necrotic cells

Prey Responses to Predator Chemical Cues: Disentangling the Importance of the Number and Biomass of Prey Consumed

To effectively balance investment in predator defenses versus other traits, organisms must accurately assess predation risk. Chemical cues caused by predation events are indicators of risk for prey in a wide variety of systems, but the relationship between how prey perceive risk in relation to the amount of prey consumed by predators is poorly understood. While per capita predation rate is often used as the metric of relative risk, studies aimed at quantifying predator-induced defenses commonly control biomass of prey consumed as the metric of risk. However, biomass consumed can change by altering either the number or size of prey consumed. In this study we determine whether phenotypic plasticity to predator chemical cues depends upon prey biomass consumed, prey number consumed, or both. We examine the growth response of red-eyed treefrog tadpoles (Agalychnis callidryas) to cues from a larval dragonfly (Anax amazili). Biomass consumed was manipulated by either increasing the number of prey while holding individual prey size constant, or by holding the number of prey constant and varying individual prey size. We address two questions. (i) Do prey reduce growth rate in response to chemical cues in a dose dependent manner? (ii) Does the magnitude of the response depend on whether prey consumption increases via number or size of prey? We find that the phenotypic response of prey is an asymptotic function of prey biomass consumed. However, the asymptotic response is higher when more prey are consumed. Our findings have important implications for evaluating past studies and how future experiments should be designed. A stronger response to predation cues generated by more individual prey deaths is consistent with models that predict prey sensitivity to per capita risk, providing a more direct link between empirical and theoretical studies which are often focused on changes in population sizes not individual biomass

Dilepton production by bremsstrahlung of meson fields in nuclear collisions

We study the bremsstrahlung of virtual omega mesons due to the collective deceleration of nuclei at the initial stage of an ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collision. It is shown that electromagnetic decays of these mesons may give an important contribution to the observed yields of dileptons. Mass spectra of positron-electron and muon pairs produced in central Au+Au collisions are calculated under some simplifying assumptions on the space-time variation of the baryonic current in a nuclear collision process. Comparison with the CERES data for 160 AGev Pb+Au collisions shows that the proposed mechanism gives a noticeable fraction of the observed lepton pairs in the intermediate region of invariant masses. Sensitivity of the dilepton yield to the in-medium modification of masses and widths of vector mesons is demonstrated.Comment: 14 page

Plasma Concentrations of Short-Chain Fatty Acids in Active and Recovered Anorexia Nervosa

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is one of the most lethal psychiatric disorders. To date, we lack adequate knowledge about the (neuro)biological mechanisms of this disorder to inform evidence-based pharmacological treatment. Gut dysbiosis is a trending topic in mental health, including AN. Communication between the gut microbiota and the brain is partly mediated by metabolites produced by the gut microbiota such as short-chain fatty acids (SCFA). Previous research has suggested a role of SCFA in weight regulation (e.g., correlations between specific SCFA-producing bacteria and BMI have been demonstrated). Moreover, fecal SCFA concentrations are reported to be altered in active AN. However, data concerning SCFA concentrations in individuals who have recovered from AN are limited. In the present study, we analyzed and compared the plasma concentrations of seven SCFA (acetic-, butyric-, formic-, isobutyric-, isovaleric-, propionic-, and succinic acid) in females with active AN (n = 109), recovered from AN (AN-REC, n = 108), and healthy-weight age-matched controls (CTRL, n = 110), and explored correlations between SCFA concentrations and BMI. Significantly lower plasma concentrations of butyric, isobutyric-, and isovaleric acid were detected in AN as well as AN-REC compared with CTRL. We also show significant correlations between plasma concentrations of SCFA and BMI. These results encourage studies evaluating whether interventions directed toward altering gut microbiota and SCFA could support weight restoration in AN

Relative Validity and Reproducibility of a Web-Based Semi-Quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire in the Danish Diet, Cancer, and Health—Next Generations MAX Study

The food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) is designed to capture an individual’s habitual dietary intake and is the most applied method in nutritional epidemiology. Our aim was to assess the relative validity and reproducibility of the FFQ used in the Diet, Cancer, and Health—Next Generations cohort (DCH-NG). We included 415 Danish women and men aged 18–67 years. Spearman’s correlations coefficients, Bland–Altman limits of agreement and cross-classification between dietary intakes estimated from the FFQ administered at baseline (FFQbaseline), and the mean of three 24-h dietary recalls (24-HDRs) and the FFQ administered after 12 months (FFQ12 months) were determined. Nutrient intakes were energy-adjusted by Nutrient Density and Residual methods. Correlation coefficients ranged from 0.18–0.58 for energy and energy-adjusted nutrient intakes, and the percentage of participants classified into the same quartile ranged from 28–47% between the FFQbaseline and the 24-HDRs. For the FFQ12 months compared with FFQbaseline, correlation coefficients ranged from 0.52–0.88 for intakes of energy, energy-adjusted nutrients, and food groups, and the proportion of participants classified into the same quartiles ranged from 43–69%. Overall, the FFQ provided a satisfactory ranking of individuals according to energy, nutrient, and food group intakes, making the FFQ suitable for use in epidemiological studies investigating diet in relation to disease outcomes

Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics - Application to offshore very short-term forecasting

Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some of these effects by means of statistical models. To this end, a benchmarking between two different families of varying-coefficient models (regime-switching and conditional parametric models) is carried out. The case of the offshore wind farm of Horns Rev in Denmark has been considered. The analysis is focused on one-step ahead forecasting and a time series resolution of 10 min. It has been found that the local wind direction contributes to model some features of the prevailing winds, such as the impact of the wind direction on the wind variability, whereas the non-linearities related to the power transformation process can be introduced by considering the local wind speed. In both cases, conditional parametric models showed a better performance than the one achieved by the regime-switching strategy. The results attained reinforce the idea that each explanatory variable allows the modelling of different underlying effects in the dynamics of wind power time series

A flow cytometry-based method to simplify the analysis and quantification of protein association to chromatin in mammalian cells.

Protein accumulation on chromatin has traditionally been studied using immunofluorescence microscopy or biochemical cellular fractionation followed by western immunoblot analysis. As a way to improve the reproducibility of this kind of analysis, to make it easier to quantify and to allow a streamlined application in high-throughput screens, we recently combined a classical immunofluorescence microscopy detection technique with flow cytometry. In addition to the features described above, and by combining it with detection of both DNA content and DNA replication, this method allows unequivocal and direct assignment of cell cycle distribution of protein association to chromatin without the need for cell culture synchronization. Furthermore, it is relatively quick (takes no more than a working day from sample collection to quantification), requires less starting material compared with standard biochemical fractionation methods and overcomes the need for flat, adherent cell types that are required for immunofluorescence microscopy.Research in our laboratory is funded by Cancer Research UK (CRUK; programme grant C6/A11224), the European Research Council and the European Community Seventh Framework Programme (grant agreement no. HEALTH¬‐F2¬‐2010¬‐259893 (DDResponse)). Core funding is provided by Cancer Research UK (C6946/A14492) and the Wellcome Trust (WT092096). J.V.F. is funded by Cancer Research UK programme grant C6/A11224 and the Ataxia Telangiectasia Society. S.P.J. receives his salary from the University of Cambridge, supplemented by CRUK.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from NPG via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nprot.2015.06