Toward autism recognition using hidden Markov models

Master of ScienceDepartment of Computing and Information SciencesDavid A. GustafsonThe use of hidden Markov models in autism recognition and analysis is investigated. More specifically, we would like to be able to determine a person's level of autism (AS, HFA, MFA, LFA) using hidden Markov models trained on observations taken from a subject's behavior in an experiment. A preliminary model is described that includes the three mental states self-absorbed, attentive, and join-attentive. Futhermore, observations are included that are more or less indicative of each of these states. Two experiments are described, the first on a single subject and the second on two subjects. Data was collected from one individual in the second experiment and observations were prepared for input to hidden Markov models and the resulting hidden Markov models were studied. Several questions subsequently arose and tests, written in Java using the JaHMM hidden Markov model tool- kit, were conducted to learn more about the hidden Markov models being used as autism recognizers and the training algorithms being used to train them. The tests are described along with the corresponding results and implications. Finally, suggestions are made for future work. It turns out that we aren't yet able to produce hidden Markov models that are indicative of a persons level of autism and the problems encountered are discussed and the suggested future work is intended to further investigate the use of hidden Markov models in autism recognition

Predicting the behavior of robotic swarms in discrete simulation

Doctor of PhilosophyDepartment of Computing and Information SciencesDavid GustafsonWe use probabilistic graphs to predict the location of swarms over 100 steps in simulations in grid worlds. One graph can be used to make predictions for worlds of different dimensions. The worlds are constructed from a single 5x5 square pattern, each square of which may be either unoccupied or occupied by an obstacle or a target. Simulated robots move through the worlds avoiding the obstacles and tagging the targets. The interactions between the robots and the robots and the environment lead to behavior that, even in deterministic simulations, can be difficult to anticipate. The graphs capture the local rate and direction of swarm movement through the pattern. The graphs are used to create a transition matrix, which along with an occupancy matrix, can be used to predict the occupancy in the patterns in the 100 steps using 100 matrix multiplications. In the future, the graphs could be used to predict the movement of physical swarms though patterned environments such as city blocks in applications such as disaster response search and rescue. The predictions could assist in the design and deployment of such swarms and help rule out undesirable behavior

International genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new primary biliary cirrhosis risk loci and targetable pathogenic pathways.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a classical autoimmune liver disease for which effective immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. Here we perform meta-analyses of discovery data sets from genome-wide association studies of European subjects (n=2,764 cases and 10,475 controls) followed by validation genotyping in an independent cohort (n=3,716 cases and 4,261 controls). We discover and validate six previously unknown risk loci for PBC (Pcombined<5 × 10(-8)) and used pathway analysis to identify JAK-STAT/IL12/IL27 signalling and cytokine-cytokine pathways, for which relevant therapies exist

Iron Behaving Badly: Inappropriate Iron Chelation as a Major Contributor to the Aetiology of Vascular and Other Progressive Inflammatory and Degenerative Diseases

The production of peroxide and superoxide is an inevitable consequence of aerobic metabolism, and while these particular "reactive oxygen species" (ROSs) can exhibit a number of biological effects, they are not of themselves excessively reactive and thus they are not especially damaging at physiological concentrations. However, their reactions with poorly liganded iron species can lead to the catalytic production of the very reactive and dangerous hydroxyl radical, which is exceptionally damaging, and a major cause of chronic inflammation. We review the considerable and wide-ranging evidence for the involvement of this combination of (su)peroxide and poorly liganded iron in a large number of physiological and indeed pathological processes and inflammatory disorders, especially those involving the progressive degradation of cellular and organismal performance. These diseases share a great many similarities and thus might be considered to have a common cause (i.e. iron-catalysed free radical and especially hydroxyl radical generation). The studies reviewed include those focused on a series of cardiovascular, metabolic and neurological diseases, where iron can be found at the sites of plaques and lesions, as well as studies showing the significance of iron to aging and longevity. The effective chelation of iron by natural or synthetic ligands is thus of major physiological (and potentially therapeutic) importance. As systems properties, we need to recognise that physiological observables have multiple molecular causes, and studying them in isolation leads to inconsistent patterns of apparent causality when it is the simultaneous combination of multiple factors that is responsible. This explains, for instance, the decidedly mixed effects of antioxidants that have been observed, etc...Comment: 159 pages, including 9 Figs and 2184 reference

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Evaluation of a real-time virtual intervention to empower persons living with HIV to use therapy self-management: study protocol for an online randomized controlled trial

Background: Living with HIV makes considerable demands on a person in terms of self-management, especially as regards adherence to treatment and coping with adverse side-effects. The online HIV Treatment, Virtual Nursing Assistance and Education (Virus de I'immunodeficience Humaine-Traitement Assistance Virtuelle Infirmiere et Enseignement; VIH-TAVIE (TM)) intervention was developed to provide persons living with HIV (PLHIV) with personalized follow-up and real-time support in managing their medication intake on a daily basis. An online randomized controlled trial (RCT) will be conducted to evaluate the efficacy of this intervention primarily in optimizing adherence to combination anti-retroviral therapy (ART) among PLHIV.Methods/design: A convenience sample of 232 PLHIV will be split evenly and randomly between an experimental group that will use the web application, and a control group that will be handed a list of websites of interest. Participants must be aged 18 years or older, have been on ART for at least 6 months, and have internet access. The intervention is composed of four interactive computer sessions of 20 to 30 minutes hosted by a virtual nurse who engages the PLHIV in a skills-learning process aimed at improving self-management of medication intake. Adherence constitutes the principal outcome, and is defined as the intake of at least 95% of the prescribed tablets. The following intermediary measures will be assessed: self-efficacy and attitude towards antiretroviral medication, symptom-related discomfort, and emotional support. There will be three measurement times: baseline (T0), after 3 months (T3) and 6 months (T6) of baseline measurement. The principal analyses will focus on comparing the two groups in terms of treatment adherence at the end of follow-up at T6. An intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis will be carried out to evaluate the true value of the intervention in a real context.Discussion: Carrying out this online RCT poses various challenges in terms of recruitment, ethics, and data collection, including participant follow-up over an extended period. Collaboration between researchers from clinical disciplines (nursing, medicine), and experts in behavioral sciences information technology and media will be crucial to the development of innovative solutions to supplying and delivering health services