A randomised controlled trial is not a pilot trial simply because it uses a surrogate endpoint.

Background: It has been argued that true endpoints (or 'hard' endpoints) for clinical trials, which are meaningful to clinicians, researchers and patients alike, are limited to those that measure health status, survival and cost. Other endpoints are termed 'surrogate' endpoints and are intended to substitute and predict the true endpoint.  A number of trials that describe using surrogate endpoints use the term 'pilot' in the title of the paper but the reason for this, as related by the authors, is the use of these surrogate endpoints in the trial. The conduct and reporting of such a trial may follow the traditional pattern for a conventional randomised controlled trial (RCT) as defined by the original CONSORT statement, with power-based sample size calculations, and significance tests of the results. However, this is contrary to the guidelines of the CONSORT extension for the reporting of pilot trials. Main body: We review the definition of a surrogate endpoint and the use of surrogate endpoints in clinical trials. We consider to what extent a trial could be considered a pilot trial if it uses a surrogate endpoint and discuss two examples that illustrate current practice. Conclusion: Trials which use surrogate endpoints should only be described as 'pilot' when a definitive trial is a distinct possibility and the authors consider conditions which would indicate whether the definitive main trial was worthwhile and feasible. Simply because a trial uses a surrogate endpoint is not justification for calling it a pilot trial

Breast asymmetry and predisposition to breast cancer.

INTRODUCTION: It has been shown in our previous work that breast asymmetry is related to several of the known risk factors for breast cancer, and that patients with diagnosed breast cancer have more breast volume asymmetry, as measured from mammograms, than age-matched healthy women. METHODS: In the present study, we compared the breast asymmetry of women who were free of breast disease at time of mammography, but who had subsequently developed breast cancer, with that of age-matched healthy controls who had remained disease-free to time of the present study. The study group consisted of 252 asymptomatic women who had normal mammography, but went on to develop breast cancer. The control group were 252 age-matched healthy controls whose mammograms were also normal and who remained free of cancer during the study period. Breast volume was calculated from the cranio-caudal mammograms for each group, and the relationships between asymmetry, established risk factors and the presence or absence of breast cancer were explored. RESULTS: The group who went on to develop breast cancer had higher breast asymmetry than controls (absolute asymmetry odds ratio 1.50 per 100 ml, confidence interval (CI) 1.10, 2.04; relative asymmetry 1.09, CI 1.01, 1.18), increased incidence of family history of breast cancer, lower age at menarche, later menopause, later first pregnancies and a higher frequency of high risk breast parenchyma types. Conditional logistic regression analysis showed that breast asymmetry, height, family history of breast cancer, age at menarche, parenchyma type and menopausal status were significant independent predictors of breast cancer. When age at menopause was included in the model for the subgroup of post-menopausal women, absolute breast fluctuating asymmetry (FA) and relative breast FA remained significant effects. CONCLUSION: Breast asymmetry was greater in healthy women who later developed breast cancer than in women who did not

Designing and analysing feasibility studies of complex interventions: challenges related to assessing stop/go criteria

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are time-consuming and costly so funders often require evidence of feasibility before they will fund large scale trials1. Feasibility studies can provide invaluable evidence relating to the practicalities of conducting large RCTs and can improve their likelihood of success. However, conducting feasibility studies of complex interventions and deciding whether or not to proceed to a full RCT, is not always straightforward. We will present the challenges encountered during the design and analysis of two feasibility studies: OBI (Optimised Behavioural Intervention for avoidant chronic low back pain patients) and MIDSHIPS (Multicentre Intervention Designed for Self-Harm using Interpersonal Problem Solving) and discuss the steps taken to overcome them. Recruiting and treating participants in a limited number of centres, with few therapists, is a complex challenge for both of these feasibility studies and crucial to determining their success; we will present the lessons learnt from our experience. We will also discuss the impact of missing data on our ability to assess stop/go criteria with respect to proof-of-concept. Estimating follow-up questionnaire response rates is an important objective in both studies, hence we will discuss the methods employed to maximise data collection and present our approach for providing robust estimates of response rates for the phase III trials

Symptoms and patient factors associated with diagnostic intervals for pancreatic cancer (SYMPTOM pancreatic study): a prospective cohort study

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordBackground Pancreatic cancer is the tenth most common cancer in the UK; however, outcomes are poor, in part due to late diagnosis. We aimed to identify symptoms and other clinical and sociodemographic factors associated with pancreatic cancer diagnosis and diagnostic intervals. Methods We did this prospective cohort study at seven hospitals in two regions in England. We recruited participants aged 40 years or older who were referred for suspicion of pancreatic cancer. Data were collected by use of a patient questionnaire and primary care and hospital records. Descriptive and regression analyses were done to examine associations between symptoms and patient factors with the total diagnostic interval (time from onset of the first symptom to the date of diagnosis), comprising patient interval (time from first symptom to first presentation) and health system interval (time from first presentation to diagnosis). Findings We recruited 391 participants between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2014 (24% response rate). 119 (30%) participants were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer (41 [34%] had metastatic disease), 47 (12%) with other cancers, and 225 (58%) with no cancer. 212 (54%) patients had multiple first symptoms whereas 161 (41%) patients had a solitary first symptom. In this referred population, no initial symptoms were reported more frequently by patients with cancer than by those with no cancer. Several subsequent symptoms predicted pancreatic cancer: jaundice (51 [49%] of 105 patients with pancreatic cancer vs 25 [12%] of 211 patients with no cancer; p<0·0001), fatigue (48/95 [51%] vs 40/155 [26%]; p=0·0001), change in bowel habit (36/87 [41%] vs 28/175 [16%]; p<0·0001), weight loss (55/100 [55%] vs 41/184 [22%]; p<0·0001), and decreased appetite (41/86 [48%] vs 41/156 [26%]; p=0·0011). There was no difference in any interval between patients with pancreatic cancer and those with no cancer (total diagnostic interval: median 117 days [IQR 57–234] vs 131 days [IQR 66–284]; p=0·32; patient interval 18 days [0–37] vs 15 days [1–62]; p=0·22; health system interval 76 days [28–161] vs 79 days [30–156]; p=0·68). Total diagnostic intervals were shorter when jaundice (hazard ratio [HR] 1·38, 95% CI 1·07–1·78; p=0·013) and decreased appetite (1·42, 1·11–1·82; p=0·0058) were reported as symptoms, and longer in patients presenting with indigestion (0·71, 0·56–0·89; p=0·0033), back pain (0·77, 0·59–0·99; p=0·040), diabetes (0·71, 0·52–0·97; p=0·029), and self-reported anxiety or depression, or both (0·67, 0·49–0·91; p=0·011). Health system intervals were likewise longer with indigestion (0·74, 0·58–0·95; p=0·0018), back pain (0·76, 0·58–0·99; p=0·044), diabetes (0·63, 0·45–0·89; p=0·0082), and self-reported anxiety or depression, or both (0·63, 0·46–0·88; p=0·0064), but were shorter with male sex (1·41, 1·1–1·81; p=0·0072) and decreased appetite (1·56, 1·19–2·06; p=0·0015). Weight loss was associated with longer patient intervals (HR 0·69, 95% CI 0·54–0·89; p=0·0047). Interpretation Although we identified no initial symptoms that differentiated people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer from those without pancreatic cancer, key additional symptoms might signal the disease. Health-care professionals should be vigilant to the possibility of pancreatic cancer in patients with evolving gastrointestinal and systemic symptoms, particularly in those with diabetes or mental health comorbidities. Funding National Institute for Health Research and Pancreatic Cancer Action.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

An ISS Small-Gain Theorem for General Networks

We provide a generalized version of the nonlinear small-gain theorem for the case of more than two coupled input-to-state stable (ISS) systems. For this result the interconnection gains are described in a nonlinear gain matrix and the small-gain condition requires bounds on the image of this gain matrix. The condition may be interpreted as a nonlinear generalization of the requirement that the spectral radius of the gain matrix is less than one. We give some interpretations of the condition in special cases covering two subsystems, linear gains, linear systems and an associated artificial dynamical system.Comment: 26 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Mathematics of Control, Signals, and Systems (MCSS

Extracellular Hsp72 concentration relates to a minimum endogenous criteria during acute exercise-heat exposure

Extracellular heat-shock protein 72 (eHsp72) concentration increases during exercise-heat stress when conditions elicit physiological strain. Differences in severity of environmental and exercise stimuli have elicited varied response to stress. The present study aimed to quantify the extent of increased eHsp72 with increased exogenous heat stress, and determine related endogenous markers of strain in an exercise-heat model. Ten males cycled for 90 min at 50% O2peak in three conditions (TEMP, 20°C/63% RH; HOT, 30.2°C/51%RH; VHOT, 40.0°C/37%RH). Plasma was analysed for eHsp72 pre, immediately post and 24-h post each trial utilising a commercially available ELISA. Increased eHsp72 concentration was observed post VHOT trial (+172.4%) (P<0.05), but not TEMP (-1.9%) or HOT (+25.7%) conditions. eHsp72 returned to baseline values within 24hrs in all conditions. Changes were observed in rectal temperature (Trec), rate of Trec increase, area under the curve for Trec of 38.5°C and 39.0°C, duration Trec ≥ 38.5°C and ≥ 39.0°C, and change in muscle temperature, between VHOT, and TEMP and HOT, but not between TEMP and HOT. Each condition also elicited significantly increasing physiological strain, described by sweat rate, heart rate, physiological strain index, rating of perceived exertion and thermal sensation. Stepwise multiple regression reported rate of Trec increase and change in Trec to be predictors of increased eHsp72 concentration. Data suggests eHsp72 concentration increases once systemic temperature and sympathetic activity exceeds a minimum endogenous criteria elicited during VHOT conditions and is likely to be modulated by large, rapid changes in core temperature

Study protocol: a randomised controlled trial investigating the effect of exercise training on peripheral blood gene expression in patients with stable angina

Background: Exercise training has been shown to reduce angina and promote collateral vessel development in patients with coronary artery disease. However, the mechanism whereby exercise exerts these beneficial effects is unclear. There has been increasing interest in the use of whole genome peripheral blood gene expression in a wide range of conditions to attempt to identify both novel mechanisms of disease and transcriptional biomarkers. This protocol describes a study in which we will assess the effect of a structured exercise programme on peripheral blood gene expression in patients with stable angina, and correlate this with changes in angina level, anxiety, depression, and exercise capacity. Methods/Design: Sixty patients with stable angina will be recruited and randomised 1: 1 to exercise training or conventional care. Patients randomised to exercise training will attend an exercise physiology laboratory up to three times weekly for supervised aerobic interval training sessions of one hour in total duration. Patients will undergo assessments of angina, anxiety, depression, and peripheral blood gene expression at baseline, after six and twelve weeks of training, and twelve weeks after formal exercise training ceases. Discussion: This study will provide comprehensive data on the effect of exercise training on peripheral blood gene expression in patients with angina. By correlating this with improvement in angina status we will identify candidate peripheral blood transcriptional markers predictive of improvements in angina level in response to exercise training

Repetitive arm functional tasks after stroke (RAFTAS): a pilot randomised controlled trial

Background Repetitive functional task practise (RFTP) is a promising treatment to improve upper limb recovery following stroke. We report the findings of a study to determine the feasibility of a multi-centre randomised controlled trial to evaluate this intervention. Methods A pilot randomised controlled trial was conducted. Patients with new reduced upper limb function were recruited within 14 days of acute stroke from three stroke units in North East England. Participants were randomised to receive a four week upper limb RFTP therapy programme consisting of goal setting, independent activity practise, and twice weekly therapy reviews in addition to usual post stroke rehabilitation, or usual post stroke rehabilitation. The recruitment rate; adherence to the RFTP therapy programme; usual post stroke rehabilitation received; attrition rate; data quality; success of outcome assessor blinding; adverse events; and the views of study participants and therapists about the intervention were recorded. Results Fifty five eligible patients were identified, 4-6% of patients screened at each site. Twenty four patients participated in the pilot study. Two of the three study sites met the recruitment target of 1-2 participants per month. The median number of face to face therapy sessions received was 6 [IQR 3-8]. The median number of daily repetitions of activities recorded was 80 [IQR 39-80]. Data about usual post stroke rehabilitation were available for 18/24 (75%). Outcome data were available for 22/24 (92%) at one month and 20/24 (83%) at three months. Outcome assessors were unblinded to participant group allocation for 11/22 (50%) at one month and 6/20 (30%) at three months. Four adverse events were considered serious as they resulted in hospitalisation. None were related to study treatment. Feedback from patients and local NHS therapists about the RFTP programme was mainly positive. Conclusions A multi-centre randomised controlled trial to evaluate an upper limb RFTP therapy programme provided early after stroke is feasible and acceptable to patients and therapists, but there are issues which needed to be addressed when designing a Phase III study. A Phase III study will need to monitor and report not only recruitment and attrition but also adherence to the intervention, usual post stroke rehabilitation received, and outcome assessor blinding