Anticipating economic market crises using measures of collective panic

Sem informaçãoPredicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single-day panics were preceded by extended periods of high levels of market mimicry-direct evidence of uncertainty and nervousness, and of the comparatively weak influence of external news. High levels of mimicry can be a quite general indicator of the potential for self-organized crises.Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single-day panics were preceded by extended periods of high levels of market mimicry-direct evidence of uncertainty and nervousness, and of the comparatively weak influence of external news. High levels of mimicry can be a quite general indicator of the potential for self-organized crises.107127Sem informaçãoSem informaçãoSem informaçã

More than one dynamic crossover in protein hydration water

Studies of liquid water in its supercooled region have led to many insights into the structure and behavior of water. While bulk water freezes at its homogeneous nucleation temperature of approximately 235 K, for protein hydration water, the binding of water molecules to the protein avoids crystallization. Here we study the dynamics of the hydrogen bond (HB) network of a percolating layer of water molecules, comparing measurements of a hydrated globular protein with the results of a coarse-grained model that has been shown to successfully reproduce the properties of hydration water. With dielectric spectroscopy we measure the temperature dependence of the relaxation time of protons charge fluctuations. These fluctuations are associated to the dynamics of the HB network of water molecules adsorbed on the protein surface. With Monte Carlo (MC) simulations and mean--field (MF) calculations we study the dynamics and thermodynamics of the model. In both experimental and model analyses we find two dynamic crossovers: (i) one at about 252 K, and (ii) one at about 181 K. The agreement of the experiments with the model allows us to relate the two crossovers to the presence of two specific heat maxima at ambient pressure. The first is due to fluctuations in the HB formation, and the second, at lower temperature, is due to the cooperative reordering of the HB network

Prevalence and Correlates of Sexually Transmitted Infections in Transgender People: An Italian Multicentric Cross-Sectional Study

The burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the transgender population remains an underestimated issue. The aims of the present study were to evaluate the prevalence of either self-reported and serological STIs and to describe socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of transgender individuals with STIs. A consecutive series of 705 transgender individuals (assigned-male at birth, AMAB n = 377; assigned-female at birth, AFAB n = 328) referring to six Italian gender clinics were included. Sociodemographic and clinical information was collected during the first visit. In a subsample of 126 individuals prevalence of STIs (human immunodeficiency virus, HIV; hepatitis C, HCV; hepatitis B, HBV; syphilis) were evaluated through serology tests. The self-reported prevalence of HIV, HBV, HCV and syphilis infection in the total sample were 3.4%, 1.6%, 2.6% and 2.0%, respectively. In the subsample who underwent serological tests, higher rates of serological prevalence were found (9.5%, 4.0%, 5.6% and 7.9% for HIV, HBV, HCV and syphilis, respectively). When comparing transgender people with or without selfreported STIs, unemployment, previous incarceration, justice problems and sex work resulted more frequent in the first group (p< 0.03 for all). Regarding health status, we observed higher rates of lifetime substance abuse and psychiatric morbidities in trans people with at least one reported STI (p < 0.05). The prevalence of STIs exceeded that reported in general population and STIs correlates underline the importance of stigma and discrimination as determinants of transgender health

Real-Life Impact of Drug Toxicity on Dolutegravir Tolerability: Clinical Practice Data from a Multicenter Italian Cohort

Dolutegravir (DTG) is currently one of the most used Integrase inhibitors (INI) in antiretroviral therapies (ARV) in both naïve and experienced people living with HIV (PLWHIV). We analyzed a multicenter cohort of PLWHIV, both naïve and experienced, starting an ARV including DTG. We enrolled 3775 PLWHIV: 2763 (73.2%) were males, with a median age of 50 years. During 9890.7 PYFU, we observed 930 discontinuations (9.4 per 100 PYFU). Estimated probabilities of maintaining DTG at three and five years were 75.1% and 67.2%, respectively. Treatment-naïve pts showed a lower probability of maintaining DTG at three and five years compared to treatment-experienced PLWHIV (log-rank p < 0.001). At a multivariate analysis, a longer time of virological suppression (aHR 0.994, p < 0.001) and having experienced a previous virological failure (aHR 0.788, p = 0.016) resulted protective against DTG discontinuation. Most discontinuations (84.0%) happened within the first 12 months of DTG initiation, in particular, 92.2% of discontinuations due to neuropsychiatric toxicity were observed in the first year. Our data confirm the overall good tolerability of DTG in clinical practice, with a low rate of discontinuations. CNS toxicity resulted the main reason for DTG discontinuation, with most related interruptions happening in the first year from DTG introduction

Use of colistin in adult patients: A cross-sectional study

Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess colistin use in a country endemic for multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (MDR-GNB). Methods: Colistin prescription patterns were evaluated in 22 Italian centres. Factors associated with use of colistin in combination with other anti-MDR-GNB agents were also assessed. Results: A total of 221 adults receiving colistin were included in the study. Their median age was 64 years (interquartile range 52\u201373 years) and 134 (61%) were male. Colistin was mostly administered intravenously (203/221; 92%) and mainly for targeted therapy (168/221; 76%). The most frequent indications for colistin therapy were bloodstream infection and lower respiratory tract infection. Intravenous colistin was administered in combination with at least another anti-MDR-GNB agent in 80% of cases (163/203). A loading dose of 9 MU of colistimethate was administered in 79% of patients receiving i.v. colistin and adequate maintenance doses in 85%. In multivariable analysis, empirical therapy [odds ratio (OR) = 3.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24\u20138.53;P = 0.017] and targeted therapy for carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales infection (OR = 4.76, 95% CI 1.69\u201313.43; P = 0.003) were associated with use of colistin in combination with other agents, whilst chronic renal failure (OR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.17\u20130.88; P = 0.024) was associated with use of colistin monotherapy. Conclusion: Colistin remains an important option for severe MDR-GNB infections when other treatments are not available. Despite inherent difficulties in optimising its use owing to peculiar pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic characteristics, colistin was mostly used appropriately in a country endemic for MDR-GNB

Hypertension in the very old; prevalence, awareness, treatment and control: a cross-sectional population-based study in a Spanish municipality

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Information on hypertension in the very elderly is sparse. Until recently evidence of benefits from pharmacological treatment was inconclusive. We estimated the prevalence of hypertension in subjects aged 80 or more, the proportion of awareness, treatment and control. Explanatory variables associated with good control were also studied.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cross sectional, population-based study, conducted in Martorell, an urban Spanish municipality, in 2005. By simple random sampling from the census, 323 subjects aged 80 or more were included. Patients were visited at home or in the geriatric institution and after giving informed consent, the study variables were collected. These included: supine and standing blood pressure and information about diagnosis and treatment of hypertension. The estimation and 95% confidence interval were obtained and a logistic regression model was used to study explanatory variables associated with blood pressure below 140/90 mm Hg.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of hypertension was 72.8% (95%CI: 69.5 – 76.6%) and 93% of the patients were aware of this condition, of whom 96.3% (95%CI: 93.65 – 97.9%) had been prescribed pharmacological treatment and 30.7% (95%CI: 25.8 – 36.1%) had blood pressure below 140/90 mm Hg. Some of the patients (43%) had one antihypertensive drug and 39.5% had two in combination. Explanatory variables associated with blood pressure below 140/90 mm Hg included prescription of a diuretic, OR: 0.31 (95%CI: 0.14 – 0.66), and history of ischemic heart disease, OR: 0.21 (95%CI: 0.1 – 0.47).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The prevalence of hypertension in population aged 80 or more was over 70%. Most patients were aware of this condition and they had antihypertensive medication prescribed. Approximately one third of treated patients had blood pressure below 140/90 mm Hg. Patients with heart disease and with diuretics had more frequently blood pressure below this value.</p

Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach

Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries. The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model’s forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises