The microphysics of clouds over the Antarctic Peninsula - Part 2: modelling aspects within Polar WRF

The first intercomparisons of cloud microphysics schemes implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model (version 3.5.1) are performed in the Antarctic Peninsula using the polar version of WRF (Polar WRF) at 5 km resolution, along with comparisons to the British Antarctic Survey's aircraft measurements (presented in Part 1 of this work, Lachlan-Cope et al., 2016). This study follows previous works suggesting the misrepresentation of the cloud thermodynamic phase in order to explain large radiative biases derived at the surface in Polar WRF continent-wide, and in the Polar WRF-based operational forecast model Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) over the Larsen C Ice shelf. Several cloud microphysics schemes are investigated: the WRF Single-Moment 5-class scheme (WSM5), the WRF Double-Moment 6-class scheme (WDM6), the Morrison double-moment scheme, the Thompson scheme, and the Milbrandt- Yau Double-Moment 7-class scheme. WSM5 used in AMPS struggles the most to capture the observed supercooled liquid phase mainly because of their ice nuclei parameterisation overestimating the number of activated crystals, while other micro- physics schemes (but not WSM5's upgraded version, WDM6) manage much better to do so. The best performing scheme is the Morrison scheme for its better average prediction of occurrences of clouds, and cloud phase, as well as its lowest surface radiative bias over the Larsen C ice shelf in the infrared. This is important for surface energy budget consideration with Polar WRF since the cloud radiative effect is more pronounced in the infrared over icy surfaces. However, our investigation shows that all the schemes fail at simulating the supercooled liquid mass at some temperatures (altitudes) where observations show evidence of its persistence. An ice nuclei parameterisation relying on both temperature and aerosol content like DeMott et al. (2010) (not currently used in WRF cloud schemes) is in best agreement with the observations, at temperatures and aerosol concentration characteristic of the Antarctic Peninsula where the primary ice production occurs (Part 1), compared to parame- terisation only relying on the atmospheric temperature (used by the WRF cloud schemes). Overall, a realistic ice microphysics implementation is paramount to the correct representation of the supercooled liquid phase in Antarctic clouds

Foehn warming distributions in nonlinear and linear flow regimes: a focus on the Antarctic Peninsula

The structure of lee-side warming during foehn events is investigated as a function of cross-barrier flow regime linearity. Two contrasting cases of westerly flow over the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are considered – one highly nonlinear, the other relatively linear. Westerly flow impinging on the AP provides one of the best natural laboratories in the world for the study of foehn, owing to its maritime setting and the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) providing an expansive, homogeneous and smooth surface on its east side. Numerical simulations with the Met Office Unified Model (at 1.5 km grid size) and aircraft observations are utilized. In case A, relatively weak southwesterly cross-Peninsula flow and an elevated upwind inversion dictate a highly nonlinear foehn event, with mountain wave breaking observed. The consequent strongly accelerated downslope flow leads to high-amplitude warming and ice-shelf melt in the immediate lee of the AP. However this foehn warming diminishes rapidly downwind due to upward ascent of the foehn flow via a hydraulic jump. In case C, strong northwesterly winds dictate a relatively linear flow regime. There is no hydraulic jump and strong foehn winds are able to flow at low levels across the entire ice shelf, mechanically mixing the near-surface flow, preventing the development of a strong surface inversion and delivering large fluxes of sensible heat to the ice shelf. Consequently, in case C ice-melt rates are considerably greater over the LCIS as a whole than in case A. Our results imply that although nonlinear foehn events cause intense warming in the immediate lee of mountains, linear foehn events will commonly cause more extensive lee-side warming and, over an ice surface, higher melt rates. This has major implications for the AP, where recent east-coast warming has led to the collapse of two ice shelves immediately north of the LCIS

Summertime cloud phase strongly influences surface melting on the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica

Surface melting on Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves can influence ice shelf mass balance, and consequently sea level rise. We show that summertime cloud phase on the Larsen C ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula strongly influences the amount of radiation received at the surface and can determine whether or not melting occurs. While previous work has separately evaluated cloud phase and the surface energy balance (SEB) during summertime over Larsen C, no previous studies have examined this relationship quantitatively. Furthermore, regional climate models frequently produce surface radiation biases related to cloud ice and liquid water content. This study uses a high-resolution regional configuration of the UK Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) to assess the influence of cloud ice and liquid properties on the SEB, and consequently melting, over the Larsen C ice shelf. Results from a case-study show that simulations producing a vertical cloud phase structure more comparable to aircraft observations exhibit smaller surface radiative biases. A configuration of the MetUM adapted to improve the simulation of cloud phase reproduces the observed surface melt most closely. During a five-week simulation of summertime conditions, model melt biases are reduced to <2 W·m −2: a four-fold improvement on a previous study that used default MetUM settings. This demonstrates the importance of cloud phase in determining summertime melt rates on Larsen C

Foehn jets over the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Previously unknown foehn jets have been identified to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) above the Larsen C Ice Shelf. These jets have major implications for the east coast of the AP, a region of rapid climatic warming and where two large sections of ice shelf have collapsed in recent years. During three foehn events across the AP, leeside warming and drying is seen in new aircraft observations and simulated well by the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) at ∼1.5 km grid spacing. In case A, weak southwesterly flow and an elevated upwind inversion characterise a highly nonlinear flow regime with upwind flow blocking. In case C strong northwesterly winds characterise a relatively linear case with little upwind flow blocking. Case B resides somewhere between the two in flow regime linearity. The foehn jets – apparent in aircraft observations where available and MetUM simulations of all three cases – are mesoscale features (up to 60 km in width) originating from the mouths of leeside inlets. Through back trajectory analysis they are identified as a type of gap flow. In cases A and B the jets are distinct, being strongly accelerated relative to the background flow, and confined to low levels above the Larsen C Ice Shelf. They resemble the ‘shallow foehn’ of the Alps. Case C resembles a case of ‘deep foehn’, with the jets less distinct. The foehn jets are considerably cooler and moister relative to adjacent regions of calmer foehn air. This is due to a dampened foehn effect in the jet regions: in case A the jets have lower upwind source regions, and in the more linear case C there is less diabatic warming and precipitation along jet trajectories due to the reduced orographic uplift across the mountain passes

Can Recurrence Quantification Analysis Be Useful in the Interpretation of Airborne Turbulence Measurements?

In airborne data or model outputs, clouds are often defined using information about Liquid Water Content (LWC). Unfortunately LWC is not enough to retrieve information about the dynamical boundary of the cloud, that is, volume of turbulent air around the cloud. In this work, we propose an algorithmic approach to this problem based on a method used in time series analysis of dynamical systems, namely Recurrence Plot (RP) and Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). We construct RPs using time series of turbulence kinetic energy, vertical velocity and temperature fluctuations as variables important for cloud dynamics. Then, by studying time series of laminarity (LAM), a variable which is calculated using RPs, we distinguish between turbulent and non-turbulent segments along a horizontal flight leg. By selecting a single threshold of this quantity, we are able to reduce the number of subjective variables and their thresholds used in the definition of the dynamical cloud boundary

Aircraft-based mass balance estimate of methane emissions from offshore gas facilities in the Southern North Sea

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have more than doubled since the beginning of the industrial age, making CH4 the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2). The oil and gas sector represent one of the major anthropogenic CH4 emitters as it is estimated to account for 22 % of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions. An airborne field campaign was conducted in April&ndash;May 2019 to study CH4 emissions from offshore gas facilities in the Southern North Sea with the aim to derive emission estimates using a top-down (measurement-led) approach. We present CH4 fluxes for six UK and five Dutch offshore platforms/platform complexes using the well-established mass balance flux method. We identify specific gas production emissions and emission processes (venting/fugitive or flaring/combustion) using observations of co-emitted ethane (C2H6) and CO2. We compare our top-down estimated fluxes with a ship-based top-down study in the Dutch sector and with bottom-up estimates from a globally gridded annual inventory, UK national annual point-source inventories, and with operator-based reporting for individual Dutch facilities. In this study, we find that all inventories, except for the operator-based facility-level reporting, underestimate measured emissions, with the largest discrepancy observed with the globally gridded inventory. Individual facility reporting, as available for Dutch sites for the specific survey date, shows better agreement with our measurement-based estimates. For all sampled Dutch installations together, we find that our estimated flux of (122.7 &plusmn; 9.7) kg h-1 deviates by a factor 0.7 (0.35&ndash;12) from reported values (183.1 kg h-1). Comparisons with aircraft observations in two other offshore regions (Norwegian Sea and Gulf of Mexico) show that measured, absolute facility-level emission rates agree with the general distribution found in other offshore basins despite different production types (oil, gas) and gas production rates, which vary by two orders of magnitude. Therefore, mitigation is warranted equally across geographies.</p

Facility level measurement of offshore oil and gas installations from a medium-sized airborne platform : method development for quantification and source identification of methane emissions

Emissions of methane (CH4) from offshore oil and gas installations are poorly ground-truthed, and quantification relies heavily on the use of emission factors and activity data. As part of the United Nations Climate & Clean Air Coalition (UN CCAC) objective to study and reduce short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), a Twin Otter aircraft was used to survey CH4 emissions from UK and Dutch offshore oil and gas installations. The aims of the surveys were to (i) identify installations that are significant CH4 emitters, (ii) separate installation emissions from other emissions using carbon-isotopic fingerprinting and other chemical proxies, (iii) estimate CH4 emission rates, and (iv) improve flux estimation (and sampling) methodologies for rapid quantification of major gas leaks. In this paper, we detail the instrument and aircraft set-up for two campaigns flown in the springs of 2018 and 2019 over the southern North Sea and describe the developments made in both the planning and sampling methodology to maximise the quality and value of the data collected. We present example data collected from both campaigns to demonstrate the challenges encountered during offshore surveys, focussing on the complex meteorology of the marine boundary layer and sampling discrete plumes from an airborne platform. The uncertainties of CH4 flux calculations from measurements under varying boundary layer conditions are considered, as well as recommendations for attribution of sources through either spot sampling for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) /δ 13CCH4 or using in situ instrumental data to determine C2H6-CH4 ratios. A series of recommendations for both planning and measurement techniques for future offshore work within marine boundary layers is provided

Quantification and assessment of methane emissions from offshore oil and gas facilities on the Norwegian continental shelf

The oil and gas (O&G) sector is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. Quantifying these emissions remains challenging, with many studies highlighting discrepancies between measurements and inventory-based estimates. In this study, we present CH4 emission fluxes from 21 offshore O&G facilities collected in 10 O&G fields over two regions of the Norwegian continental shelf in 2019. Emissions of CH4 derived from measurements during 13 aircraft surveys were found to range from 2.6 to 1200 t yr−1 (with a mean of 211 t yr−1 across all 21 facilities). Comparing this with aggregated operator-reported facility emissions for 2019, we found excellent agreement (within 1σ uncertainty), with mean aircraft-measured fluxes only 16 % lower than those reported by operators. We also compared aircraft-derived fluxes with facility fluxes extracted from a global gridded fossil fuel CH4 emission inventory compiled for 2016. We found that the measured emissions were 42 % larger than the inventory for the area covered by this study, for the 21 facilities surveyed (in aggregate). We interpret this large discrepancy not to reflect a systematic error in the operator-reported emissions, which agree with measurements, but rather the representativity of the global inventory due to the methodology used to construct it and the fact that the inventory was compiled for 2016 (and thus not representative of emissions in 2019). This highlights the need for timely and up-to-date inventories for use in research and policy. The variable nature of CH4 emissions from individual facilities requires knowledge of facility operational status during measurements for data to be useful in prioritising targeted emission mitigation solutions. Future surveys of individual facilities would benefit from knowledge of facility operational status over time. Field-specific aggregated emissions (and uncertainty statistics), as presented here for the Norwegian Sea, can be meaningfully estimated from intensive aircraft surveys. However, field-specific estimates cannot be reliably extrapolated to other production fields without their own tailored surveys, which would need to capture a range of facility designs, oil and gas production volumes, and facility ages. For year-on-year comparison to annually updated inventories and regulatory emission reporting, analogous annual surveys would be needed for meaningful top-down validation. In summary, this study demonstrates the importance and accuracy of detailed, facility-level emission accounting and reporting by operators and the use of airborne measurement approaches to validate bottom-up accounting

Antarctic clouds

Sensitivity studies with global climate models show that, by their influence on the radiation balance, Antarctic clouds play a major role in the climate system, both directly at high southern latitudes and indirectly globally, as the local circulation changes lead to global teleconnections. Unfortunately, observations of cloud distribution in the Antarctic are limited and often of low quality because of the practical difficulty in observing clouds in the harsh Antarctic environment. The best surface observations suggest that the fractional cloud cover at the South Pole is around 50–60% in all seasons, whereas the cloud cover rises to around 80–90% close to the coast of the continent. Microphysical observations of cloud parameters are also very sparse in the Antarctic. However, the few measurements that do exist show predominantly ice-crystal clouds across the interior, with mixed-phase clouds close to the coasts. Crystal sizes vary from 5 to 30 mm (effective radius) in the interior to somewhat larger ice crystals and water drops near the coast. A wide range of crystal shapes is observed at all sites. This review considers the available cloud observations and highlights the importance of Antarctic clouds and the need for better observations in the future