Modelling radiative and climate effects of aerosols : from Anthropogenic emissions to geoengineering

Atmospheric aerosols have been shown to exert a cooling effect on climate by scattering incoming solar radiation back to space or increasing cloud albedo by increasing the cloud droplet number concentration in the clouds. If greenhouse gas emissions cannot be reduced to slow down climate warming, it has been postulated that climate could be artificially cooled by increasing atmospheric aerosol concentrations. These methods are called solar radiation management or geoengineering. This work evaluated two potential solar radiation management techniques; 1) where marine aerosol concentrations would be elevated to enhance marine cloud albedo and 2) a technique where stratospheric sulphur concentration would be increased. The key objectives of this thesis were to: 1) Investigate the potential of aerosols to cool the climate at the global scale, 2) Evaluate the role of the simulation of the aerosol microphysics in the global climate models and 3) Identify the possible limits in the effectiveness of the Solar Radiation Management techniques as well as the risks related to these techniques. Climate is already being affected by our current aerosols emissions. This work also examined how the geographical change in aerosol emissions has affected the climate and evaluated how the climate would change due to aerosols if all electrical energy were to be generated by nuclear power is instead of by coal combustion. The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ was used to study radiation and the climatic effects of aerosols. The model simulates the formation, growth, transportation and deposition of aerosols and their interactions with clouds. In addition, the effects on the climate, assessed as temperature changes, were studied using a mixed layer ocean model coupled to the atmospheric model ECHAM and Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The results revealed that the geoengineering techniques which were studied in this work, have the potential to significantly cool climate and thus slow down global warming. However, the cooling effect has limitations. Stratospheric sulphur injections would lead to relatively less cooling, should the amount of injected sulphur need to be increased. Thus for example, a large volcanic eruption would also lead to a clearly smaller and shorter period cooling if the volcano were to erupt during the stratospheric sulphur injections than if the eruption took place in an unperturbed atmosphere. This work also studied if ship or air traffic were to be used for geoengineering by increasing sulphur concentration in fuel. This would lead to a significant cooling effect but would require changes in current legislation. Even if this were to occur, the cooling effect would be concentrated around the vicinity of routes of the traffic and would thus lead to a regionally uneven cooling effect. Furthermore, the cooling effect would be clearly smaller compared to injection strategies which were intended to maximize the cooling effect of aerosols. The global mean cooling effect attributable to aerosols would be rather small due to the geographical change in tropospheric aerosol emissions or change in energy production studied here when compared to the warming due to the increased greenhouse gas emissions. This work shows the necessity of including aerosol microphysics into climate modelling since most of the conclusions in this work could not be obtained without aerosol microphysics or taking into account the interactions between clouds and aerosols. Thus, micrometer scale physical phenomena would influence the climatic impact on a global scale. Simulating aerosol microphysics led also to many unpredictable results

Method for the Intraoperative Detection of IDH Mutation in Gliomas with Differential Mobility Spectrometry

Isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutation status is an important factor for surgical decision-making: patients with IDH-mutated tumors are more likely to have a good long-term prognosis, and thus favor aggressive resection with more survival benefit to gain. Patients with IDH wild-type tumors have generally poorer prognosis and, therefore, conservative resection to avoid neurological deficit is favored. Current histopathological analysis with frozen sections is unable to identify IDH mutation status intraoperatively, and more advanced methods are therefore needed. We examined a novel method suitable for intraoperative IDH mutation identification that is based on the differential mobility spectrometry (DMS) analysis of the tumor. We prospectively obtained tumor samples from 22 patients, including 11 IDH-mutated and 11 IDH wild-type tumors. The tumors were cut in 88 smaller specimens that were analyzed with DMS. With a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) algorithm, the DMS was able to classify tumor samples with 86% classification accuracy, 86% sensitivity, and 85% specificity. Our results show that DMS is able to differentiate IDH-mutated and IDH wild-type tumors with good accuracy in a setting suitable for intraoperative use, which makes it a promising novel solution for neurosurgical practice.Peer reviewe

Analysis of the global atmospheric background sulfur budget in a multi-model framework

Sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere is an important climate driver, causing solar dimming in the years after major volcanic eruptions. Hence, a growing number of general circulation models are adapting interactive sulfur and aerosol schemes to improve the representation of relevant chemical processes and associated feedbacks. However, uncertainties of these schemes are not well constrained. Stratospheric sulfate is modulated by natural emissions of sulfur-containing species, including volcanic eruptive, and anthropogenic emissions. Model intercomparisons have examined the effects of volcanic eruptions, whereas the background conditions of the sulfur cycle have not been addressed in a global model intercomparison project. Assessing background conditions in global models allows us to identify model discrepancies as they are masked by large perturbations such as volcanic eruptions, yet may still matter in the aftermath of such a disturbance. Here, we analyze the atmospheric burden, seasonal cycle, and vertical and meridional distribution of the main sulfur species among nine global atmospheric aerosol models that are widely used in the stratospheric aerosol research community. We use observational and reanalysis data to evaluate model results. Overall, models agree that the three dominant sulfur species in terms of burdens (sulfate aerosol, OCS, and SO2) make up about 98 % of stratospheric sulfur and 95 % of tropospheric sulfur. However, models vary considerably in the partitioning between these species. Models agree that anthropogenic emission of SO2 strongly affects the sulfate aerosol burden in the Northern Hemispheric troposphere, while its importance is very uncertain in other regions. The total deposition of sulfur varies among models, deviating by a factor of two, but models agree that sulfate aerosol is the main form in which sulfur is deposited. Additionally, the partitioning between wet and dry deposition fluxes is highly model dependent. We investigate the areas of greatest variability in the sulfur species burdens and find that inter-model variability is low in the tropics and increases towards the poles. Seasonality in the southern hemisphere is depicted very similar among models. Differences are largest in the dynamically active northern hemispheric extratropical region, hence some of the differences could be attributed to the differences in the representation of the stratospheric circulation among underlying general circulation models. This study highlights that the differences in the atmospheric sulfur budget among the models arise from the representation of both chemical and dynamical processes, whose interplay complicates the bias attribution. Several problematic points identified for individual models are related to the specifics of the chemistry schemes, model resolution, and representation of cross-tropopause transport in the extratropics. Further model intercomparison research is needed focusing on the clarification of the reasons for biases, given also the importance of this topic for the stratospheric aerosol injection studies.</p

EC-Earth3-AerChem: a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model, describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and outline the new features compared with the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under preindustrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the preindustrial control simulation is on average −0.09 W m−2 with a standard deviation due to interannual variability of 0.25 W m−2, showing no significant drift. The global surface air temperature in the simulation is on average 14.08 ∘C with an interannual standard deviation of 0.17 ∘C, exhibiting a small drift of 0.015 ± 0.005 ∘C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 ∘C, and its transient climate response is estimated at 2.1 ∘C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread across ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the surface air temperature climatology for 1995–2014 has an average bias of −0.86 ± 0.05 ∘C with a standard deviation across ensemble members of 0.35 ∘C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.02 ∘C with a corresponding standard deviation of 0.05 ∘C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant effects on the global climate from the second half of the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091–2100) of 4.9 ∘C above the preindustrial mean. A 0.5 ∘C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 ∘C

Effects of black carbon mitigation on Arctic climate

We use the ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol-climate model to assess the effects of black carbon (BC) mitigation measures on Arctic climate. To this end we constructed several mitigation scenarios that implement all currently existing legislation and then implement further reductions of BC in a successively increasing global area, starting from the eight member states of the Arctic Council, expanding to its active observer states, then to all observer states, and finally to the entire globe. These scenarios also account for the reduction of the co-emitted organic carbon (OC) and sulfate (SU). We find that, even though the additional BC emission reductions in the member states of the Arctic Council are small, the resulting reductions in Arctic BC mass burdens can be substantial, especially in the lower troposphere close to the surface. This in turn means that reducing BC emissions only in the Arctic Council member states can reduce BC deposition in the Arctic by about 30 % compared to the current legislation, which is about 60 % of what could be achieved if emissions were reduced globally. Emission reductions further south affect Arctic BC concentrations at higher altitudes and thus only have small additional effects on BC deposition in the Arctic. The direct radiative forcing scales fairly well with the total amount of BC emission reduction, independent of the location of the emission source, with a maximum direct radiative forcing in the Arctic of about −0.4 W m−2 for a global BC emission reduction. On the other hand, the Arctic effective radiative forcing due to the BC emission reductions, which accounts for aerosol–cloud interactions, is small compared to the direct aerosol radiative forcing. This happens because BC- and OC-containing particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei, which affects cloud reflectivity and lifetime and counteracts the direct radiative forcing of BC. Additionally, the effective radiative forcing is accompanied by very large uncertainties that originate from the strong natural variability of meteorology, cloud cover, and surface albedo in the Arctic. We further used the TM5-FASST model to assess the benefits of the aerosol emission reductions for human health. We found that a full implementation in all Arctic Council member and observer states could reduce the annual global number of premature deaths by 329 000 by the year 2030, which amounts to 9 % of the total global premature deaths due to particulate matter

INLIFE - independent living support functions for the elderly : technology and pilot overview

In this paper, we present the European H2020 project INLIFE (INdependent LIving support Functions for the Elderly). The project brought together 20 partners from nine countries with the goal of integrating into a common ICT platform a range of technologies intended to assist community-dwelling older people with cognitive impairment. The majority of technologies existed prior to INLIFE and a key goal was to bring them together in one place along with a number of new applications to provide a comprehensive set of services. The range of INLIFE services fell into four broad areas: Independent Living Support, Travel Support, Socialization and Communication Support and Caregiver Support. These included security applications, services to facilitate interactions with formal and informal caregivers, multilingual conversation support, web-based physical exercises, teleconsultations, and support for transport navigation. In total, over 2900 people participated in the project; they included elderly adults with cognitive impairment, informal caregivers, healthcare professionals, and other stakeholders. The aim of the study was to assess whether there was improvement/stabilization of cognitive/emotional/physical functioning, as well as overall well-being and quality of life of those using the INLIFE services, and to assess user acceptance of the platform and individual services. The results confirm there is a huge interest and appetite for technological services to support older adults living with cognitive impairment in the community. Different services attracted different amounts of use and evaluation with some proving extremely popular while others less so. The findings provide useful information on the ways in which older adults and their families, health and social care services and other stakeholders wish to access technological services, what sort of services they are seeking, what sort of support they need to access services, and how these services might be funded

Elite Suppressor–Derived HIV-1 Envelope Glycoproteins Exhibit Reduced Entry Efficiency and Kinetics

Elite suppressors (ES) are a rare subset of HIV-1–infected individuals who are able to maintain HIV-1 viral loads below the limit of detection by ultra-sensitive clinical assays in the absence of antiretroviral therapy. Mechanism(s) responsible for this elite control are poorly understood but likely involve both host and viral factors. This study assesses ES plasma-derived envelope glycoprotein (env) fitness as a function of entry efficiency as a possible contributor to viral suppression. Fitness of virus entry was first evaluated using a novel inducible cell line with controlled surface expression levels of CD4 (receptor) and CCR5 (co-receptor). In the context of physiologic CCR5 and CD4 surface densities, ES envs exhibited significantly decreased entry efficiency relative to chronically infected viremic progressors. ES envs also demonstrated slow entry kinetics indicating the presence of virus with reduced entry fitness. Overall, ES env clones were less efficient at mediating entry than chronic progressor envs. Interestingly, acute infection envs exhibited an intermediate phenotypic pattern not distinctly different from ES or chronic progressor envs. These results imply that lower env fitness may be established early and may directly contribute to viral suppression in ES individuals

Decreased hippocampal translocator protein (18 kDa) expression in alcohol dependence: a [11C]PBR28 PET study

Repeated withdrawal from alcohol is clinically associated with progressive cognitive impairment. Microglial activation occurring during pre-clinical models of alcohol withdrawal is associated with learning deficits. We investigated whether there was microglial activation in recently detoxified alcohol-dependent patients (ADP), using [11C]PBR28 positron emission tomography (PET), selective for the 18kDa translocator protein (TSPO) highly expressed in activated microglia and astrocytes. We investigated the relationship between microglial activation and cognitive performance. Twenty healthy control (HC) subjects (45±13; M:F 14:6) and nine ADP (45±6, M:F 9:0) were evaluated. Dynamic PET data were acquired for 90 min following an injection of 331±15 MBq [11C]PBR28. Regional volumes of distribution (VT) for regions of interest (ROIs) identified a priori were estimated using a two-tissue compartmental model with metabolite-corrected arterial plasma input function. ADP had an ~20% lower [11C]PBR28 VT, in the hippocampus (F(1,24) 5.694; P=0.025), but no difference in VT in other ROIs. Hippocampal [11C]PBR28 VT was positively correlated with verbal memory performance in a combined group of HC and ADP (r=0.720, P&lt;0.001), an effect seen in HC alone (r=0.738; P=0.001) but not in ADP. We did not find evidence for increased microglial activation in ADP, as seen pre-clinically. Instead, our findings suggest lower glial density or an altered activation state with lower TSPO expression. The correlation between verbal memory and [11C]PBR28 VT, raises the possibility that abnormalities of glial function may contribute to cognitive impairment in ADP

Young, healthy males and females present cardiometabolic protection against the detrimental effects of a 7-day high-fat high-calorie diet

Purpose: High-fat, high-calorie (HFHC) diets have been used as a model to investigate lipid-induced insulin resistance. Short-term HFHC diets reduce insulin sensitivity in young healthy males, but to date, no study has directly compared males and females to elucidate sex-specific differences in the effects of a HFHC diet on functional metabolic and cardiovascular outcomes. Methods: Eleven males (24 ± 4 years; BMI 23 ± 2 kg.m−2; V̇O2 peak 62.3 ± 8.7 ml.min−1.kg−1FFM) were matched to 10 females (25 ± 4 years; BMI 23 ± 2 kg.m−2; V̇O2 peak 58.2 ± 8.2 ml.min−1.kg−1FFM). Insulin sensitivity, measured via oral glucose tolerance test, metabolic flexibility, arterial stiffness, body composition and blood lipids and liver enzymes were measured before and after 7 days of a high-fat (65% energy) high-calorie (+ 50% kcal) diet. Results: The HFHC diet did not change measures of insulin sensitivity, metabolic flexibility or arterial stiffness in either sex. There was a trend towards increased total body fat mass (kg) after the HFHC diet (+ 1.8% and + 2.3% for males and females, respectively; P = 0.056). In contrast to females, males had a significant increase in trunk to leg fat mass ratio (+ 5.1%; P = 0.005). Conclusion: Lean, healthy young males and females appear to be protected from the negative cardio-metabolic effects of a 7-day HFHC diet. Future research should use a prolonged positive energy balance achieved via increased energy intake and reduced energy expenditure to exacerbate negative metabolic and cardiovascular functional outcomes to determine whether sex-specific differences exist under more metabolically challenging conditions

Trans-ancestry meta-analyses identify rare and common variants associated with blood pressure and hypertension

High blood pressure is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease and premature death. However, there is limited knowledge on specific causal genes and pathways. To better understand the genetics of blood pressure, we genotyped 242,296 rare, low-frequency and common genetic variants in up to ~192,000 individuals, and used ~155,063 samples for independent replication. We identified 31 novel blood pressure or hypertension associated genetic regions in the general population, including three rare missense variants in RBM47, COL21A1 and RRAS with larger effects (>1.5mmHg/allele) than common variants. Multiple rare, nonsense and missense variant associations were found in A2ML1 and a low-frequency nonsense variant in ENPEP was identified. Our data extend the spectrum of allelic variation underlying blood pressure traits and hypertension, provide new insights into the pathophysiology of hypertension and indicate new targets for clinical intervention