The Dynamic Chain Event Graph

In this paper we develop a formal dynamic version of Chain Event Graphs (CEGs), a particularly expressive family of discrete graph- ical models. We demonstrate how this class links to semi-Markov models and provides a convenient generalization of the Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). In particular we develop a repeating time-slice Dynamic CEG providing a useful and simpler model in this family. We demonstrate how the Dynamic CEG’s graphical formulation exhibits asymmetric conditional independence statements and also how each model can be estimated in a closed form enabling fast model search over the class. The expressive power of this model class together with its estimation is illustrated throughout by a variety of examples that include the risk of childhood hospitalization and the efficacy of a flu vaccine

The interaction between vaginal microbiota, cervical length and vaginal progesterone treatment for preterm birth risk

Background: Preterm birth is the primary cause of infant death worldwide. A short cervix in the second trimester of pregnancy is a risk factor for preterm birth. In specific patient cohorts, vaginal progesterone reduces this risk. Using 16S rRNA gene sequencing we undertook a prospective study in women at risk of preterm birth (n=161) to assess 1) the relationship between vaginal microbiota and cervical length in the second trimester and preterm birth-risk, and 2) the impact of vaginal progesterone on vaginal bacterial communities in women with a short cervix. Results: Lactobacillus iners dominance at 16 weeks gestation was significantly associated with both a short cervix <25mm (n=15, P<0.05), and preterm birth <34+0 weeks (n=18, 38P<0.01; 69% PPV). In contrast, L. crispatus dominance was highly predictive of term birth (n=127, 98% PPV). Cervical shortening and preterm birth were not associated with vaginal dysbiosis. A longitudinal characterization of vaginal microbiota (<18, 22, 28 and 34 weeks) was then undertaken in women receiving vaginal progesterone (400mg/OD, n=25) versus controls (n=42). Progesterone did not alter vaginal bacterial community structure nor reduce L. iners-associated preterm birth (<34 weeks). Conclusions: L. iners dominance of the vaginal microbiota at 16 weeks gestation is a risk factor for preterm birth, whereas L. crispatus dominance is protective against preterm birth. Vaginal progesterone does not appear to impact the pregnancy vaginal microbiota. Patients and clinicians who may be concerned about ‘infection risk’ associated with use of a vaginal pessary during high-risk pregnancy can be reassured

Spectrum, risk factors and outcomes of neurological and psychiatric complications of COVID-19: a UK-wide cross-sectional surveillance study

SARS-CoV-2 is associated with new-onset neurological and psychiatric conditions. Detailed clinical data, including factors associated with recovery, are lacking, hampering prediction modelling and targeted therapeutic interventions. In a UK-wide cross-sectional surveillance study of adult hospitalized patients during the first COVID-19 wave, with multi-professional input from general and sub-specialty neurologists, psychiatrists, stroke physicians, and intensivists, we captured detailed data on demographics, risk factors, pre-COVID-19 Rockwood frailty score, comorbidities, neurological presentation and outcome. A priori clinical case definitions were used, with cross-specialty independent adjudication for discrepant cases. Multivariable logistic regression was performed using demographic and clinical variables, to determine the factors associated with outcome. A total of 267 cases were included. Cerebrovascular events were most frequently reported (131, 49%), followed by other central disorders (95, 36%) including delirium (28, 11%), central inflammatory (25, 9%), psychiatric (25, 9%), and other encephalopathies (17, 7%), including a severe encephalopathy (n = 13) not meeting delirium criteria; and peripheral nerve disorders (41, 15%). Those with the severe encephalopathy, in comparison to delirium, were younger, had higher rates of admission to intensive care and a longer duration of ventilation. Compared to normative data during the equivalent time period prior to the pandemic, cases of stroke in association with COVID-19 were younger and had a greater number of conventional, modifiable cerebrovascular risk factors. Twenty-seven per cent of strokes occurred in patients 60 years old, the younger stroke patients presented with delayed onset from respiratory symptoms, higher rates of multi-vessel occlusion (31%) and systemic thrombotic events. Clinical outcomes varied between disease groups, with cerebrovascular disease conferring the worst prognosis, but this effect was less marked than the pre-morbid factors of older age and a higher pre-COVID-19 frailty score, and a high admission white cell count, which were independently associated with a poor outcome. In summary, this study describes the spectrum of neurological and psychiatric conditions associated with COVID-19. In addition, we identify a severe COVID-19 encephalopathy atypical for delirium, and a phenotype of COVID-19 associated stroke in younger adults with a tendency for multiple infarcts and systemic thromboses. These clinical data will be useful to inform mechanistic studies and stratification of patients in clinical trials

Insulin trafficking in a glucose responsive engineered human liver cell line is regulated by the interaction of ATP-sensitive potassium channels and voltage- gated calcium channels

Type I diabetes is caused by the autoimmune destruction of pancreatic beta (â) cells [1]. Current treatment requires multiple daily injections of insulin to control blood glucose levels. Tight glucose control lowers, but does not eliminate, the onset of diabetic complications, which greatly reduce the quality and longevity of life for patients. Transplantation of pancreatic tissue as a treatment is restricted by the scarcity of donors and the requirement for lifelong immunosuppression to preserve the graft, which carries adverse side-effects. This is of particular concern as Type 1 diabetes predominantly affects children. Lack of glucose control could be overcome by genetically engineering "an artificial â-cell" that is capable of synthesising, storing and secreting insulin in response to metabolic signals. The donor cell type must be readily accessible and capable of being engineered to synthesise, process, store and secrete insulin under physiological conditions

The gut microbiota influences skeletal muscle mass and function in mice

The functional interactions between the gut microbiota and the host are important for host physiology, homeostasis, and sustained health. We compared the skeletal muscle of germ-free mice that lacked a gut microbiota to the skeletal muscle of pathogen-free mice that had a gut microbiota. Compared to pathogen-free mouse skeletal muscle, germ-free mouse skeletal muscle showed atrophy, decreased expression of insulin-like growth factor 1, and reduced transcription of genes associated with skeletal muscle growth and mitochondrial function. Nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometry analysis of skeletal muscle, liver, and serum from germ-free mice revealed multiple changes in the amounts of amino acids, including glycine and alanine, compared to pathogen-free mice. Germ-free mice also showed reduced serum choline, the precursor of acetylcholine, the key neurotransmitter that signals between muscle and nerve at neuromuscular junctions. Reduced expression of genes encoding Rapsyn and Lrp4, two proteins important for neuromuscular junction assembly and function, was also observed in skeletal muscle from germ-free mice compared to pathogen-free mice. Transplanting the gut microbiota from pathogen-free mice into germ-free mice resulted in an increase in skeletal muscle mass, a reduction in muscle atrophy markers, improved oxidative metabolic capacity of the muscle, and elevated expression of the neuromuscular junction assembly genes Rapsyn and Lrp4 Treating germ-free mice with short-chain fatty acids (microbial metabolites) partly reversed skeletal muscle impairments. Our results suggest a role for the gut microbiota in regulating skeletal muscle mass and function in mice

Determining the neurotransmitter concentration profile at active synapses

Establishing the temporal and concentration profiles of neurotransmitters during synaptic release is an essential step towards understanding the basic properties of inter-neuronal communication in the central nervous system. A variety of ingenious attempts has been made to gain insights into this process, but the general inaccessibility of central synapses, intrinsic limitations of the techniques used, and natural variety of different synaptic environments have hindered a comprehensive description of this fundamental phenomenon. Here, we describe a number of experimental and theoretical findings that has been instrumental for advancing our knowledge of various features of neurotransmitter release, as well as newly developed tools that could overcome some limits of traditional pharmacological approaches and bring new impetus to the description of the complex mechanisms of synaptic transmission

Phytochemicals as antibiotic alternatives to promote growth and enhance host health

There are heightened concerns globally on emerging drug-resistant superbugs and the lack of new antibiotics for treating human and animal diseases. For the agricultural industry, there is an urgent need to develop strategies to replace antibiotics for food-producing animals, especially poultry and livestock. The 2nd International Symposium on Alternatives to Antibiotics was held at the World Organization for Animal Health in Paris, France, December 12-15, 2016 to discuss recent scientific developments on strategic antibiotic-free management plans, to evaluate regional differences in policies regarding the reduction of antibiotics in animal agriculture and to develop antibiotic alternatives to combat the global increase in antibiotic resistance. More than 270 participants from academia, government research institutions, regulatory agencies, and private animal industries from >25 different countries came together to discuss recent research and promising novel technologies that could provide alternatives to antibiotics for use in animal health and production; assess challenges associated with their commercialization; and devise actionable strategies to facilitate the development of alternatives to antibiotic growth promoters (AGPs) without hampering animal production. The 3-day meeting consisted of four scientific sessions including vaccines, microbial products, phytochemicals, immune-related products, and innovative drugs, chemicals and enzymes, followed by the last session on regulation and funding. Each session was followed by an expert panel discussion that included industry representatives and session speakers. The session on phytochemicals included talks describing recent research achievements, with examples of successful agricultural use of various phytochemicals as antibiotic alternatives and their mode of action in major agricultural animals (poultry, swine and ruminants). Scientists from industry and academia and government research institutes shared their experience in developing and applying potential antibiotic-alternative phytochemicals commercially to reduce AGPs and to develop a sustainable animal production system in the absence of antibiotics.Fil: Lillehoj, Hyun. United States Department of Agriculture. Agricultural Research Service; ArgentinaFil: Liu, Yanhong. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Calsamiglia, Sergio. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; EspañaFil: Fernandez Miyakawa, Mariano Enrique. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro de Investigación en Ciencias Veterinarias y Agronómicas. Instituto de Patobiología; ArgentinaFil: Chi, Fang. Amlan International; Estados UnidosFil: Cravens, Ron L.. Amlan International; Estados UnidosFil: Oh, Sungtaek. United States Department of Agriculture. Agricultural Research Service; ArgentinaFil: Gay, Cyril G.. United States Department of Agriculture. Agricultural Research Service; Argentin

Abnormal cognition, sleep, EEG and brain metabolism in a novel knock-in Alzheimer mouse, PLB1

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