Modelling subject-specific childhood growth using linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines.

Childhood growth is a cornerstone of pediatric research. Statistical models need to consider individual trajectories to adequately describe growth outcomes. Specifically, well-defined longitudinal models are essential to characterize both population and subject-specific growth. Linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines can account for the nonlinearity of growth curves and provide reasonable estimators of population and subject-specific growth, velocity and acceleration.We provide a stepwise approach that builds from simple to complex models, and account for the intrinsic complexity of the data. We start with standard cubic splines regression models and build up to a model that includes subject-specific random intercepts and slopes and residual autocorrelation. We then compared cubic regression splines vis-à-vis linear piecewise splines, and with varying number of knots and positions. Statistical code is provided to ensure reproducibility and improve dissemination of methods. Models are applied to longitudinal height measurements in a cohort of 215 Peruvian children followed from birth until their fourth year of life.Unexplained variability, as measured by the variance of the regression model, was reduced from 7.34 when using ordinary least squares to 0.81 (p < 0.001) when using a linear mixed-effect models with random slopes and a first order continuous autoregressive error term. There was substantial heterogeneity in both the intercept (p < 0.001) and slopes (p < 0.001) of the individual growth trajectories. We also identified important serial correlation within the structure of the data (ρ = 0.66; 95 % CI 0.64 to 0.68; p < 0.001), which we modeled with a first order continuous autoregressive error term as evidenced by the variogram of the residuals and by a lack of association among residuals. The final model provides a parametric linear regression equation for both estimation and prediction of population- and individual-level growth in height. We show that cubic regression splines are superior to linear regression splines for the case of a small number of knots in both estimation and prediction with the full linear mixed effect model (AIC 19,352 vs. 19,598, respectively). While the regression parameters are more complex to interpret in the former, we argue that inference for any problem depends more on the estimated curve or differences in curves rather than the coefficients. Moreover, use of cubic regression splines provides biological meaningful growth velocity and acceleration curves despite increased complexity in coefficient interpretation.Through this stepwise approach, we provide a set of tools to model longitudinal childhood data for non-statisticians using linear mixed-effect models

Extreme genetic fragility of the HIV-1 capsid

Genetic robustness, or fragility, is defined as the ability, or lack thereof, of a biological entity to maintain function in the face of mutations. Viruses that replicate via RNA intermediates exhibit high mutation rates, and robustness should be particularly advantageous to them. The capsid (CA) domain of the HIV-1 Gag protein is under strong pressure to conserve functional roles in viral assembly, maturation, uncoating, and nuclear import. However, CA is also under strong immunological pressure to diversify. Therefore, it would be particularly advantageous for CA to evolve genetic robustness. To measure the genetic robustness of HIV-1 CA, we generated a library of single amino acid substitution mutants, encompassing almost half the residues in CA. Strikingly, we found HIV-1 CA to be the most genetically fragile protein that has been analyzed using such an approach, with 70% of mutations yielding replication-defective viruses. Although CA participates in several steps in HIV-1 replication, analysis of conditionally (temperature sensitive) and constitutively non-viable mutants revealed that the biological basis for its genetic fragility was primarily the need to coordinate the accurate and efficient assembly of mature virions. All mutations that exist in naturally occurring HIV-1 subtype B populations at a frequency &gt;3%, and were also present in the mutant library, had fitness levels that were &gt;40% of WT. However, a substantial fraction of mutations with high fitness did not occur in natural populations, suggesting another form of selection pressure limiting variation in vivo. Additionally, known protective CTL epitopes occurred preferentially in domains of the HIV-1 CA that were even more genetically fragile than HIV-1 CA as a whole. The extreme genetic fragility of HIV-1 CA may be one reason why cell-mediated immune responses to Gag correlate with better prognosis in HIV-1 infection, and suggests that CA is a good target for therapy and vaccination strategies

Common polygenic variation in coeliac disease and confirmation of ZNF335 and NIFA as disease susceptibility loci

Coeliac disease (CD) is a chronic immune-mediated disease triggered by the ingestion of gluten. It has an estimated prevalence of approximately 1% in European populations. Specific HLA-DQA1 and HLA-DQB1 alleles are established coeliac susceptibility genes and are required for the presentation of gliadin to the immune system resulting in damage to the intestinal mucosa. In the largest association analysis of CD to date, 39 non-HLA risk loci were identified, 13 of which were new, in a sample of 12 014 individuals with CD and 12 228 controls using the Immunochip genotyping platform. Including the HLA, this brings the total number of known CD loci to 40. We have replicated this study in an independent Irish CD case–control population of 425 CD and 453 controls using the Immunochip platform. Using a binomial sign test, we show that the direction of the effects of previously described risk alleles were highly correlated with those reported in the Irish population, (P=2.2 × 10−16). Using the Polygene Risk Score (PRS) approach, we estimated that up to 35% of the genetic variance could be explained by loci present on the Immunochip (P=9 × 10−75). When this is limited to non-HLA loci, we explain a maximum of 4.5% of the genetic variance (P=3.6 × 10−18). Finally, we performed a meta-analysis of our data with the previous reports, identifying two further loci harbouring the ZNF335 and NIFA genes which now exceed genome-wide significance, taking the total number of CD susceptibility loci to 42

Childhood bullying, paranoid thinking, and the misappraisal of social threat: trouble at school

Background:Experiences of bullying predict the development of paranoia in school-age adolescents. While many instances of psychotic phenomena are transitory, maintained victimization can lead to increasingly distressing paranoid thinking. Furthermore, paranoid thinkers perceive threat in neutral social stimuli and are vigilant for environmental risk. Aims:The present paper investigated the association between different forms of bullying and paranoid thinking, and the extent to which school-age paranoid thinkers overestimate threat in interpersonal situations. Methods: Two hundred and thirty participants, aged between eleven and fourteen, were recruited from one secondary school in the UK. Participants completed a series of questionnaires hosted on the Bristol Online Survey tool. All data were collected in a classroom setting in quiet and standardized conditions. Results: A significant and positive relationship was found between experiences of bullying and paranoid thinking: greater severity of bullying predicted more distressing paranoid thinking. Further, paranoid thinking mediated the relationship between bullying and overestimation of threat in neutral social stimuli. Conclusion: Exposure to bullying is associated with distressing paranoid thinking and subsequent misappraisal of threat. As paranoid thinkers experience real and overestimated threat, the phenomena may persist

Progressive Activation of CD127+132− Recent Thymic Emigrants into Terminally Differentiated CD127−132+ T-Cells in HIV-1 Infection

AIM: HIV infection is associated with distortion of T-cell homeostasis and the IL-7/IL7R axis. Progressive infection results in loss of CD127+132- and gains in CD127-132+ CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells. We investigated the correlates of loss of CD127 from the T-cell surface to understand mechanisms underlying this homeostatic dysregulation. METHODS: Peripheral and cord blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs; CBMC) from healthy volunteers and PBMC from patients with HIV infection were studied. CD127+132-, CD127+132+ and CD127-132+ T-cells were phenotyped by activation, differentiation, proliferation and survival markers. Cellular HIV-DNA content and signal-joint T-cell receptor excision circles (sjTRECs) were measured. RESULTS: CD127+132- T-cells were enriched for naïve cells while CD127-132+ T-cells were enriched for activated/terminally differentiated T-cells in CD4+ and CD8+ subsets in health and HIV infection. HIV was associated with increased proportions of activated/terminally differentiated CD127-132+ T-cells. In contrast to CD127+132- T-cells, CD127-132+ T-cells were Ki-67+Bcl-2(low) and contained increased levels of HIV-DNA. Naïve CD127+132- T-cells contained a higher proportion of sjTRECs. CONCLUSION: The loss of CD127 from the T-cell surface in HIV infection is driven by activation of CD127+132- recent thymic emigrants into CD127-132+ activated/terminally differentiated cells. This process likely results in an irreversible loss of CD127 and permanent distortion of T-cell homeostasis

The effects of traditional, superset, and tri-set resistance training structures on perceived intensity and physiological responses.

PURPOSE: Investigate the acute and short-term (i.e., 24 h) effects of traditional (TRAD), superset (SS), and tri-set (TRI) resistance training protocols on perceptions of intensity and physiological responses. METHODS: Fourteen male participants completed a familiarisation session and three resistance training protocols (i.e., TRAD, SS, and TRI) in a randomised-crossover design. Rating of perceived exertion, lactate concentration ([Lac]), creatine kinase concentration ([CK]), countermovement jump (CMJ), testosterone, and cortisol concentrations was measured pre, immediately, and 24-h post the resistance training sessions with magnitude-based inferences assessing changes/differences within/between protocols. RESULTS: TRI reported possible to almost certainly greater efficiency and rate of perceived exertion, although session perceived load was very likely lower. SS and TRI had very likely to almost certainly greater lactate responses during the protocols, with changes in [CK] being very likely and likely increased at 24 h, respectively. At 24-h post-training, CMJ variables in the TRAD protocol had returned to baseline; however, SS and TRI were still possibly to likely reduced. Possible increases in testosterone immediately post SS and TRI protocols were reported, with SS showing possible increases at 24-h post-training. TRAD and SS showed almost certain and likely decreases in cortisol immediately post, respectively, with TRAD reporting likely decreases at 24-h post-training. CONCLUSIONS: SS and TRI can enhance training efficiency and reduce training time. However, acute and short-term physiological responses differ between protocols. Athletes can utilise SS and TRI resistance training, but may require additional recovery post-training to minimise effects of fatigue

Effects of ecosystem protection on scallop populations within a community-led temperate marine reserve

This study investigated the effects of a newly established, fully protected marine reserve on benthic habitats and two commercially valuable species of scallop in Lamlash Bay, Isle of Arran, United Kingdom. Annual dive surveys from 2010 to 2013 showed the abundance of juvenile scallops to be significantly greater within the marine reserve than outside. Generalised linear models revealed this trend to be significantly related to the greater presence of macroalgae and hydroids growing within the boundaries of the reserve. These results suggest that structurally complex habitats growing within the reserve have substantially increased spat settlement and/or survival. The density of adult king scallops declined threefold with increasing distance from the boundaries of the reserve, indicating possible evidence of spillover or reduced fishing effort directly outside and around the marine reserve. However, there was no difference in the mean density of adult scallops between the reserve and outside. Finally, the mean age, size, and reproductive and exploitable biomass of king scallops were all significantly greater within the reserve. In contrast to king scallops, the population dynamics of queen scallops (Aequipecten opercularis) fluctuated randomly over the survey period and showed little difference between the reserve and outside. Overall, this study is consistent with the hypothesis that marine reserves can encourage the recovery of seafloor habitats, which, in turn, can benefit populations of commercially exploited species, emphasising the importance of marine reserves in the ecosystem-based management of fisheries

A Myo6 Mutation Destroys Coordination between the Myosin Heads, Revealing New Functions of Myosin VI in the Stereocilia of Mammalian Inner Ear Hair Cells

Myosin VI, found in organisms from Caenorhabditis elegans to humans, is essential for auditory and vestibular function in mammals, since genetic mutations lead to hearing impairment and vestibular dysfunction in both humans and mice. Here, we show that a missense mutation in this molecular motor in an ENU-generated mouse model, Tailchaser, disrupts myosin VI function. Structural changes in the Tailchaser hair bundles include mislocalization of the kinocilia and branching of stereocilia. Transfection of GFP-labeled myosin VI into epithelial cells and delivery of endocytic vesicles to the early endosome revealed that the mutant phenotype displays disrupted motor function. The actin-activated ATPase rates measured for the D179Y mutation are decreased, and indicate loss of coordination of the myosin VI heads or ‘gating’ in the dimer form. Proper coordination is required for walking processively along, or anchoring to, actin filaments, and is apparently destroyed by the proximity of the mutation to the nucleotide-binding pocket. This loss of myosin VI function may not allow myosin VI to transport its cargoes appropriately at the base and within the stereocilia, or to anchor the membrane of stereocilia to actin filaments via its cargos, both of which lead to structural changes in the stereocilia of myosin VI–impaired hair cells, and ultimately leading to deafness

The Role of Recombination for the Coevolutionary Dynamics of HIV and the Immune Response

The evolutionary implications of recombination in HIV remain not fully understood. A plausible effect could be an enhancement of immune escape from cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). In order to test this hypothesis, we constructed a population dynamic model of immune escape in HIV and examined the viral-immune dynamics with and without recombination. Our model shows that recombination (i) increases the genetic diversity of the viral population, (ii) accelerates the emergence of escape mutations with and without compensatory mutations, and (iii) accelerates the acquisition of immune escape mutations in the early stage of viral infection. We see a particularly strong impact of recombination in systems with broad, non-immunodominant CTL responses. Overall, our study argues for the importance of recombination in HIV in allowing the virus to adapt to changing selective pressures as imposed by the immune system and shows that the effect of recombination depends on the immunodominance pattern of effector T cell responses

High Viral Fitness during Acute HIV-1 Infection

Several clinical studies have shown that, relative to disease progression, HIV-1 isolates that are less fit are also less pathogenic. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between viral fitness and control of viral load (VL) in acute and early HIV-1 infection. Samples were obtained from subjects participating in two clinical studies. In the PULSE study, antiretroviral therapy (ART) was initiated before, or no later than six months following seroconversion. Subjects then underwent multiple structured treatment interruptions (STIs). The PHAEDRA study enrolled and monitored a cohort of individuals with documented evidence of primary infection. The subset chosen were individuals identified no later than 12 months following seroconversion to HIV-1, who were not receiving ART. The relative fitness of primary isolates obtained from study participants was investigated ex vivo. Viral DNA production was quantified using a novel real time PCR assay. Following intermittent ART, the fitness of isolates obtained from 5 of 6 PULSE subjects decreased over time. In contrast, in the absence of ART the fitness of paired isolates obtained from 7 of 9 PHAEDRA subjects increased over time. However, viral fitness did not correlate with plasma VL. Most unexpected was the high relative fitness of isolates obtained at Baseline from PULSE subjects, before initiating ART. It is widely thought that the fitness of strains present during the acute phase is low relative to strains present during chronic HIV-1 infection, due to the bottleneck imposed upon transmission. The results of this study provide evidence that the relative fitness of strains present during acute HIV-1 infection may be higher than previously thought. Furthermore, that viral fitness may represent an important clinical parameter to be considered when deciding whether to initiate ART during early HIV-1 infection