MODEM: a comprehensive approach to modelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for dementia. Protocol paper

Background The MODEM project (A comprehensive approach to MODelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for DEMentia) explores how changes in arrangements for the future treatment and care of people living with dementia, and support for family and other unpaid carers, could result in better outcomes and more efficient use of resources. Methods MODEM starts with a systematic mapping of the literature on effective and (potentially) cost-effective interventions in dementia care. Those findings, as well as data from a cohort, will then be used to model the quality of life and cost impacts of making these evidence-based interventions more widely available in England over the period from now to 2040. Modelling will use a suite of models, combining microsimulation and macrosimulation methods, modelling the costs and outcomes of care, both for an individual over the life-course from the point of dementia diagnosis, and for individuals and England as a whole in a particular year. Project outputs will include an online Dementia Evidence Toolkit, making evidence summaries and a literature database available free to anyone, papers in academic journals and other written outputs, and a MODEM Legacy Model, which will enable local commissioners of services to apply the model to their own populations. Discussion Modelling the effects of evidence-based cost-effective interventions and making this information widely available has the potential to improve the health and quality of life both of people with dementia and their carers, while ensuring that resources are used efficiently

The contribution of PA-X to the virulence of pandemic 2009 H1N1 and highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses

PA-X is a novel protein encoded by PA mRNA and is found to decrease the pathogenicity of pandemic 1918 H1N1 virus in mice. However, the importance of PA-X proteins in current epidemiologically important influenza A virus strains is not known. In this study, we report on the pathogenicity and pathological effects of PA-X deficient 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) and highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses. We found that loss of PA-X expression in pH1N1 and H5N1 viruses increased viral replication and apoptosis in A549 cells and increased virulence and host inflammatory response in mice. In addition, PA-X deficient pH1N1 and H5N1 viruses up-regulated PA mRNA and protein synthesis and increased viral polymerase activity. Loss of PA-X was also accompanied by accelerated nuclear accumulation of PA protein and reduced suppression of PA on non-viral protein expression. Our study highlights the effects of PA-X on the moderation of viral pathogenesis and pathogenicity

Identification of a novel splice variant form of the influenza a virus m2 ion channel with an antigenically distinct ectodomain

Segment 7 of influenza A virus produces up to four mRNAs. Unspliced transcripts encode M1, spliced mRNA2 encodes the M2 ion channel, while protein products from spliced mRNAs 3 and 4 have not previously been identified. The M2 protein plays important roles in virus entry and assembly, and is a target for antiviral drugs and vaccination. Surprisingly, M2 is not essential for virus replication in a laboratory setting, although its loss attenuates the virus. To better understand how IAV might replicate without M2, we studied the reversion mechanism of an M2-null virus. Serial passage of a virus lacking the mRNA2 splice donor site identified a single nucleotide pseudoreverting mutation, which restored growth in cell culture and virulence in mice by upregulating mRNA4 synthesis rather than by reinstating mRNA2 production. We show that mRNA4 encodes a novel M2-related protein (designated M42) with an antigenically distinct ectodomain that can functionally replace M2 despite showing clear differences in intracellular localisation, being largely retained in the Golgi compartment. We also show that the expression of two distinct ion channel proteins is not unique to laboratory-adapted viruses but, most notably, was also a feature of the 1983 North American outbreak of H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus. In identifying a 14th influenza A polypeptide, our data reinforce the unexpectedly high coding capacity of the viral genome and have implications for virus evolution, as well as for understanding the role of M2 in the virus life cycle

Genomic Polymorphism of the Pandemic A (H1N1) Influenza Viruses Correlates with Viral Replication, Virulence, and Pathogenicity In Vitro and In Vivo

The novel pandemic A (H1N1) virus was first identified in Mexico in April 2009 and quickly spread worldwide. Like all influenzas, the H1N1 strain-specific properties of replication, virulence, and pathogenicity are a result of the particular genomic sequence and concerted expression of multiple genes. Thus, specific mutations may support increased virulence and may be useful as biomarkers of potential threat to human health. We performed comparative genomic analysis of ten strains of the 2009 pandemic A (H1N1) influenza viruses to determine whether genotypes associated with clinical phenotypes, which ranged from mild to severe illness and up to lethal. Virus replication capacity was tested for each strain in vitro using cultured epithelial cells, while virulence and pathogenicity were investigated in vivo using the BALB/c mouse model. The results indicated that A/Sichuan/1/2009 strain had significantly higher replication ability and virulence than the other strains, and five unique non-synonymous mutations were identified in important gene-encoding sequences. These mutations led to amino acid substitutions in HA (L32I), PA (A343T), PB1 (K353R and T566A), and PB2 (T471M), and may be critical molecular determinants for replication, virulence, and pathogenicity. Our results suggested that the replication capacity in vitro and virulence in vivo of the 2009 pandemic A (H1N1) viruses were not associated with the clinical phenotypes. This study offers new insights into the transmission and evolution of the 2009 pandemic A (H1N1) virus

Calibrating ADL-IADL scales to improve measurement accuracy and to extend the disability construct into the preclinical range: a systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Interest in measuring functional status among nondisabled older adults has increased in recent years. This is, in part, due to the notion that adults identified as 'high risk' for functional decline portray a state that is potentially easier to reverse than overt disability. Assessing relatively healthy older adults with traditional self-report measures (activities of daily living) has proven difficult because these instruments were initially developed for institutionalised older adults. Perhaps less evident, are problems associated with change scores and the potential for 'construct under-representation', which reflects the exclusion of important features of the construct (e.g., disability). Furthermore, establishing a formal hierarchy of functional status tells more than the typical simple summation of functional loss, and may have predictive value to the clinician monitoring older adults: if the sequence task difficulty is accelerated or out of order it may indicate the need for interventions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This review identified studies that employed item response theory (IRT) to examine or revise functional status scales. IRT can be used to transform the ordinal nature of functional status scales to interval level data, which serves to increase diagnostic precision and sensitivity to clinical change. Furthermore, IRT can be used to rank items unequivocally along a hierarchy based on difficulty. It should be noted that this review is not concerned with contrasting IRT with more traditional classical test theory methodology.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A systematic search of four databases (PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and PsychInfo) resulted in the review of 2,192 manuscripts. Of these manuscripts, twelve met our inclusion/exclusion requirements and thus were targeted for further inspection.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Manuscripts presented in this review appear to summarise gerontology's best efforts to improve construct validity and content validity (i.e., ceiling effects) for scales measuring the early stages of activity restriction in community-dwelling older adults. Several scales in this review were exceptional at reducing ceiling effects, reducing gaps in coverage along the construct, as well as establishing a formal hierarchy of functional decline. These instrument modifications make it plausible to detect minor changes in difficulty for IADL items positioned at the edge of the disability continuum, which can be used to signal the onset of progressive type disability in older adults.</p

A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies identifies multiple longevity genes

Human longevity is heritable, but genome-wide association (GWA) studies have had limited success. Here, we perform two meta-analyses of GWA studies of a rigorous longevity phenotype definition including 11,262/3484 cases surviving at or beyond the age corresponding to the 90th/99th survival percentile, respectively, and 25,483 controls whose age at death or at last contact was at or below the age corresponding to the 60th survival percentile. Consistent with previous reports, rs429358 (apolipoprotein E (ApoE) epsilon 4) is associated with lower odds of surviving to the 90th and 99th percentile age, while rs7412 (ApoE epsilon 2) shows the opposite. Moreover, rs7676745, located near GPR78, associates with lower odds of surviving to the 90th percentile age. Gene-level association analysis reveals a role for tissue-specific expression of multiple genes in longevity. Finally, genetic correlation of the longevity GWA results with that of several disease-related phenotypes points to a shared genetic architecture between health and longevity

Effects of fluoxetine on functional outcomes after acute stroke (FOCUS): a pragmatic, double-blind, randomised, controlled trial

Background Results of small trials indicate that fluoxetine might improve functional outcomes after stroke. The FOCUS trial aimed to provide a precise estimate of these effects. Methods FOCUS was a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel group, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial done at 103 hospitals in the UK. Patients were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older, had a clinical stroke diagnosis, were enrolled and randomly assigned between 2 days and 15 days after onset, and had focal neurological deficits. Patients were randomly allocated fluoxetine 20 mg or matching placebo orally once daily for 6 months via a web-based system by use of a minimisation algorithm. The primary outcome was functional status, measured with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), at 6 months. Patients, carers, health-care staff, and the trial team were masked to treatment allocation. Functional status was assessed at 6 months and 12 months after randomisation. Patients were analysed according to their treatment allocation. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN83290762. Findings Between Sept 10, 2012, and March 31, 2017, 3127 patients were recruited. 1564 patients were allocated fluoxetine and 1563 allocated placebo. mRS data at 6 months were available for 1553 (99·3%) patients in each treatment group. The distribution across mRS categories at 6 months was similar in the fluoxetine and placebo groups (common odds ratio adjusted for minimisation variables 0·951 [95% CI 0·839–1·079]; p=0·439). Patients allocated fluoxetine were less likely than those allocated placebo to develop new depression by 6 months (210 [13·43%] patients vs 269 [17·21%]; difference 3·78% [95% CI 1·26–6·30]; p=0·0033), but they had more bone fractures (45 [2·88%] vs 23 [1·47%]; difference 1·41% [95% CI 0·38–2·43]; p=0·0070). There were no significant differences in any other event at 6 or 12 months. Interpretation Fluoxetine 20 mg given daily for 6 months after acute stroke does not seem to improve functional outcomes. Although the treatment reduced the occurrence of depression, it increased the frequency of bone fractures. These results do not support the routine use of fluoxetine either for the prevention of post-stroke depression or to promote recovery of function. Funding UK Stroke Association and NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme