Consistency and communication in committees

We generalize the classical binary Condorcet jury model by introducing a richer state and signal space, thereby generating a concern for consistency in the evaluation of aggregate information. We analyze truth-telling incentives in simultaneous pre-vote communication in heterogeneous committees and find that full pooling of information followed by sincere voting is compatible with a positive probability of ex post conflict in the committee

Subgroup deliberation and voting

We consider three mechanisms for the aggregation of information in heterogeneous committees voting by Unanimity rule: Private Voting and voting preceded by either Plenary or Subgroup Deliberation. While the first deliberation protocol imposes public communication, the second restricts communication to homogeneous subgroups. We find that both protocols allow to Pareto improve on outcomes achieved under private voting. Furthermore, we find that when focusing on simple equilibria under Plenary Deliberation, Subgroup Deliberation Pareto improves on outcomes achieved under Plenary Deliberation

A prospective cohort study of long-term cognitive changes in older Medicare beneficiaries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Promoting cognitive health and preventing its decline are longstanding public health goals, but long-term changes in cognitive function are not well-documented. Therefore, we first examined long-term changes in cognitive function among older Medicare beneficiaries in the Survey on Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD), and then we identified the risk factors associated with those changes in cognitive function.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective, population-based cohort using baseline (1993-1994) interview data linked to 1993-2007 Medicare claims to examine cognitive function at the final follow-up interview which occurred between 1995-1996 and 2006-2007. Besides traditional risk factors (i.e., aging, age, race, and education) and adjustment for baseline cognitive function, we considered the reason for censoring (entrance into managed care or death), and post-baseline continuity of care and major health shocks (hospital episodes). Residual change score multiple linear regression analysis was used to predict cognitive function at the final follow-up using data from telephone interviews among 3,021 to 4,251 (sample size varied by cognitive outcome) baseline community-dwelling self-respondents that were ≥ 70 years old, not in managed Medicare, and had at least one follow-up interview as self-respondents. Cognitive function was assessed using the 7-item Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS-7; general mental status), and the 10-item immediate and delayed (episodic memory) word recall tests.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean changes in the number of correct responses on the TICS-7, and 10-item immediate and delayed word recall tests were -0.33, -0.75, and -0.78, with 43.6%, 54.9%, and 52.3% declining and 25.4%, 20.8%, and 22.9% unchanged. The main and most consistent risks for declining cognitive function were the baseline values of cognitive function (reflecting substantial regression to the mean), aging (a strong linear pattern of increased decline associated with greater aging, but with diminishing marginal returns), older age at baseline, dying before the end of the study period, lower education, and minority status.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In addition to aging, age, minority status, and low education, substantial and differential risks for cognitive change were associated with sooner vs. later subsequent death that help to clarify the terminal drop hypothesis. No readily modifiable protective factors were identified.</p

Eliciting Information from a Large Population

This paper studies information transmission in social surveys where a welfare max-imizing decision maker communicates with a random sample of individuals from a large population who have heterogeneous preferences. The population distribution of preferences is unknown and has to be estimated, based on answers from the respondents. The decision maker cannot identify the true distribution of preferences even if the sample size becomes arbitrarily large, since the respondents have incentive to &quot;exaggerate&quot; their preferences especially as the sample size becomes larger and each respondent has weaker inuence on the decision. The quality of communication with each respondent may improve as the sample size becomes smaller, and thus we identify the trade-off between the quality and quantity of communication. We show that the decision maker may prefer to sample a smaller number of individuals when the prior is weaker

Neighborhood conditions, diabetes, and risk of lower-body functional limitations among middle-aged African Americans: A cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The relationship between presence of diabetes and adverse neighborhood and housing conditions and their effect on functional decline is unclear. We examined the association of adverse neighborhood (block face) and housing conditions with incidence of lower-body functional limitations among persons with and those without diabetes using a prospective population-based cohort study of 563 African Americans 49-65 years of age at their 2000-2001 baseline interviews.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants were randomly sampled African Americans living in the St. Louis area (response rate: 76%). Physician-diagnosed diabetes was self reported at baseline interview. Lower-body functional limitations were self reported based on the Nagi physical performance scale at baseline and the three-year follow-up interviews. The external appearance of the block the respondent lived on and five housing conditions were rated by study interviewers. All analyses were done using propensity score methods to control for confounders.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>109 (19.4%) of subjects experienced incident lower-body functional limitations at three-year follow-up. In adjusted analysis, persons with diabetes who lived on block faces rated as fair-poor on each of the five conditions had higher odds (7.79 [95% confidence interval: 1.36-37.55] to 144.6 [95% confidence interval: 4.45-775.53]) of developing lower-body functional limitations than the referent group of persons without diabetes who lived on block faces rated as good-excellent. At least 80 percent of incident lower-body functional limitations was attributable to the interaction between block face conditions and diabetes status.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Adverse neighborhood conditions appear to exacerbate the detrimental effects on lower-body functioning associated with diabetes.</p

Risk of requiring a wheelchair in primary progressive multiple sclerosis: Data from the ORATORIO trial and the MSBase registry

Background and purpose: Reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) ≥7.0 represents the requirement for a wheelchair. Here we (i) assess the effect of ocrelizumab on time to EDSS ≥7.0 over the ORATORIO (NCT01194570) double-blind and extended controlled periods (DBP+ECP), (ii) quantify likely long-term benefits by extrapolating results, and (iii) assess the plausibility of extrapolations using an independent real-world cohort (MSBase registry; ACTRN12605000455662). Methods: Post hoc analyses assessing time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 in two cohorts of patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (baseline EDSS 3.0–6.5) were investigated in ORATORIO and MSBase. Results: In the ORATORIO DBP+ECP, ocrelizumab reduced the risk of 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 (hazard ratio&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.31–0.92; p&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.022). Extrapolated median time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.1 and 19.2&nbsp;years for placebo and ocrelizumab, respectively (7.1-year delay [95% CI: −4.3 to 18.4]). In MSBase, the median time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.4&nbsp;years. Conclusions: Compared with placebo, ocrelizumab significantly delayed time to 24-week confirmed wheelchair requirement in ORATORIO. The plausibility of the extrapolated median time to reach this milestone in the placebo group was supported by observed real-world data from MSBase. Extrapolated benefits for ocrelizumab over placebo could represent a truly meaningful delay in loss of ambulation and independence

Spatial Organization and Molecular Correlation of Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes Using Deep Learning on Pathology Images

Beyond sample curation and basic pathologic characterization, the digitized H&E-stained images of TCGA samples remain underutilized. To highlight this resource, we present mappings of tumorinfiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) based on H&E images from 13 TCGA tumor types. These TIL maps are derived through computational staining using a convolutional neural network trained to classify patches of images. Affinity propagation revealed local spatial structure in TIL patterns and correlation with overall survival. TIL map structural patterns were grouped using standard histopathological parameters. These patterns are enriched in particular T cell subpopulations derived from molecular measures. TIL densities and spatial structure were differentially enriched among tumor types, immune subtypes, and tumor molecular subtypes, implying that spatial infiltrate state could reflect particular tumor cell aberration states. Obtaining spatial lymphocytic patterns linked to the rich genomic characterization of TCGA samples demonstrates one use for the TCGA image archives with insights into the tumor-immune microenvironment

Pan-Cancer Analysis of lncRNA Regulation Supports Their Targeting of Cancer Genes in Each Tumor Context

Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are commonly dys-regulated in tumors, but only a handful are known toplay pathophysiological roles in cancer. We inferredlncRNAs that dysregulate cancer pathways, onco-genes, and tumor suppressors (cancer genes) bymodeling their effects on the activity of transcriptionfactors, RNA-binding proteins, and microRNAs in5,185 TCGA tumors and 1,019 ENCODE assays.Our predictions included hundreds of candidateonco- and tumor-suppressor lncRNAs (cancerlncRNAs) whose somatic alterations account for thedysregulation of dozens of cancer genes and path-ways in each of 14 tumor contexts. To demonstrateproof of concept, we showed that perturbations tar-geting OIP5-AS1 (an inferred tumor suppressor) andTUG1 and WT1-AS (inferred onco-lncRNAs) dysre-gulated cancer genes and altered proliferation ofbreast and gynecologic cancer cells. Our analysis in-dicates that, although most lncRNAs are dysregu-lated in a tumor-specific manner, some, includingOIP5-AS1, TUG1, NEAT1, MEG3, and TSIX, synergis-tically dysregulate cancer pathways in multiple tumorcontexts

Pan-cancer Alterations of the MYC Oncogene and Its Proximal Network across the Cancer Genome Atlas

Although theMYConcogene has been implicated incancer, a systematic assessment of alterations ofMYC, related transcription factors, and co-regulatoryproteins, forming the proximal MYC network (PMN),across human cancers is lacking. Using computa-tional approaches, we define genomic and proteo-mic features associated with MYC and the PMNacross the 33 cancers of The Cancer Genome Atlas.Pan-cancer, 28% of all samples had at least one ofthe MYC paralogs amplified. In contrast, the MYCantagonists MGA and MNT were the most frequentlymutated or deleted members, proposing a roleas tumor suppressors.MYCalterations were mutu-ally exclusive withPIK3CA,PTEN,APC,orBRAFalterations, suggesting that MYC is a distinct onco-genic driver. Expression analysis revealed MYC-associated pathways in tumor subtypes, such asimmune response and growth factor signaling; chro-matin, translation, and DNA replication/repair wereconserved pan-cancer. This analysis reveals insightsinto MYC biology and is a reference for biomarkersand therapeutics for cancers with alterations ofMYC or the PMN

Genomic, Pathway Network, and Immunologic Features Distinguishing Squamous Carcinomas

This integrated, multiplatform PanCancer Atlas study co-mapped and identified distinguishing molecular features of squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) from five sites associated with smokin