The Quadruple Squeeze: Defining the safe operating space for freshwater use to achieve a triply green revolution in the Anthropocene

Humanity has entered a new phase of sustainability challenges, the Anthropocene, in which human development has reached a scale where it affects vital planetary processes. Under the pressure from a quadruple squeeze—from population and development pressures, the anthropogenic climate crisis, the anthropogenic ecosystem crisis, and the risk of deleterious tipping points in the Earth system—the degrees of freedom for sustainable human exploitation of planet Earth are severely restrained. It is in this reality that a new green revolution in world food production needs to occur, to attain food security and human development over the coming decades. Global freshwater resources are, and will increasingly be, a fundamental limiting factor in feeding the world. Current water vulnerabilities in the regions in most need of large agricultural productivity improvements are projected to increase under the pressure from global environmental change. The sustainability challenge for world agriculture has to be set within the new global sustainability context. We present new proposed sustainability criteria for world agriculture, where world food production systems are transformed in order to allow humanity to stay within the safe operating space of planetary boundaries. In order to secure global resilience and thereby raise the chances of planet Earth to remain in the current desired state, conducive for human development on the long-term, these planetary boundaries need to be respected. This calls for a triply green revolution, which not only more than doubles food production in many regions of the world, but which also is environmentally sustainable, and invests in the untapped opportunities to use green water in rainfed agriculture as a key source of future productivity enhancement. To achieve such a global transformation of agriculture, there is a need for more innovative options for water interventions at the landscape scale, accounting for both green and blue water, as well as a new focus on cross-scale interactions, feed-backs and risks for unwanted regime shifts in the agro-ecological landscape

Intercontinental trans-boundary contributions to ozone-induced crop yield losses in the Northern Hemisphere

Using a global atmospheric chemistry model, we have quantified for the first time, intercontinental transboundary contributions to crop ozone exposure and subsequent yield reductions in the Northern Hemisphere. We apply four metrics (AOT40, M7, M12, W126) to assess the impacts of 100% reductions in anthropogenic NOx emissions from North (N) America, South East (SE) Asia and Europe on global and regional exposure of 6 major agricultural crop types to surface ozone, and resultant crop production losses during the year 2000 growing season. Using these metrics, model calculations show that for wheat, rice, cotton and potato, 100 % reductions in SE Asian anthropogenic NOx emissions tend to produce the greatest global reduction in crop production losses (42.3–95.2%), and a 100 % reduction to N~American anthropogenic NOx emissions results in the greatest global impact on crop production losses for maize and soybean (59.2–85.9%). A 100% reduction in N~American anthropogenic NOx emissions produces the largest transboundary impact, resulting in European production loss reductions of between 14.2% and 63.2%. European NOx emissions tend to produce a smaller transboundary impact, due to inefficiency of transport from the European domain. The threshold nature of the AOT40 ozone-exposure metric results in strong dependence of non-local emissions impacts on the local ozone concentration distribution. Our calculations of absolute crop production change under emission reduction scenarios differ between the metrics used, however we find the relative importance of each region's transboundary impact remains robust between metrics. Our results demonstrate that local air quality and emission control strategies have the potential to partly alleviate ozone-induced crop yield loss in continents downstream, in addition to effectively mitigating local ozone-induced production losses

How much does the presence of a competitor modify the within-canopy distribution of ozone-induced senescence and visible injury?

Many natural vegetation species have been shown to be negatively affected by ozone. This study has investigated how the presence of competing species in a community affects two common responses to ozone: visible injury and senescence. Monocultures and mixtures of Trifolium repens and Lolium perenne were grown in large containers and were exposed in solardomes to either a rural episodic ozone profile (AOT40 of 12.86 ppm h) or control conditions (AOT40 of 0.02 ppm h) for 12 weeks. The proportion of ozone-injured or senesced leaves was different in the different regions of the canopy. The highest proportions of injured/senesced leaves were in the plant material growing at the edge of the canopy and the upper canopy, with a significantly lower proportion of injured leaves in the inner canopy. The presence of L. perenne increased the proportion of ozone-injured leaves in T. repens at the final harvest, whilst the presence of T. repens decreased the proportion of senesced leaves in L. perenne. In L. perenne, the proportion of injured leaves at the edge and inner canopy decreased significantly when grown in competition, whilst for T. repens the reverse effect occurred in the inner canopy only. Different mechanisms appeared to influence the interaction between response to ozone and competitors in these two species. In L. perenne the response to ozone may have been related to nitrogen supply, whereas in T. repens canopy structure was more important

Sensitivity analysis of a parameterization of the stomatal component of the DO3SE model for Quercus ilex to estimate ozone fluxes

A sensitivity analysis of a proposed parameterization of the stomatal conductance ( gs) module of the European ozone deposition model (DO3SE) for Quercus ilex was performed. The performance of the model was tested against measured gs in the field at three sites in Spain. The best fit of the model was found for those sites, or during those periods, facing no or mild stress conditions, but a worse performance was found under severe drought or temperature stress, mostly occurring at continental sites. The best performance was obtained when both fphen and fSWP were included. A local parameterization accounting for the lower temperatures recorded in winter and the higher water shortage at the continental sites resulted in a better performance of the model. The overall results indicate that two different parameterizations of the model are needed, one for marine-influenced sites and another one for continental sites

A comparison of North American and Asian exposure–response data for ozone effects on crop yields

Modelling-based studies to assess the extent and magnitude of ozone (O3) risk to agriculture in Asia suggest that yield losses of 5–20% for important crops may be common in areas experiencing elevated O3 concentrations. These assessments have relied on European and North American dose–response relationships and hence assumed an equivalent Asian crop response to O3 for local cultivars, pollutant conditions and climate. To test this assumption we collated comparable dose–response data derived from fumigation, filtration and EDU experiments conducted in Asia on wheat, rice and leguminous crop species. These data are pooled and compared with equivalent North American dose–response relationships. The Asian data show that at ambient O3 concentrations found at the study sites (which vary between w35–75 ppb 4–8 h growing season mean), yield losses for wheat, rice and legumes range between 5–48, 3–47 and 10–65%, respectively. The results indicate that Asian grown wheat and rice cultivars are more sensitive to O3 than the North American dose–response relationships would suggest. For legumes the scatter in the data makes it difficult to reach any equivalent conclusion in relative sensitivities. As such, existing modelling-based risk assessments may have substantially underestimated the scale of the problem in Asia through use of North American derived dose–response relationships