Quantification of extremal dependence in spatial natural hazard footprints: independence of windstorm gust speeds and its impact on aggregate losses

This is the final version. Available on open access from EGU via the DOI in this recordNatural hazards, such as European windstorms, have widespread effects that result in insured losses at multiple locations throughout a continent. Multivariate extreme-value statistical models for such environmental phenomena must therefore accommodate very high dimensional spatial data, as well as correctly representing dependence in the extremes to ensure accurate estimation of these losses. Ideally one would employ a flexible model, able to characterise all forms of extremal dependence. However, such models are restricted to a few dozen dimensions, hence an a priori diagnostic approach must be used to identify the dominant form of extremal dependence. Here, we present various approaches for exploring the dominant extremal dependence class in very high dimensional spatial hazard fields: tail dependency measures, copula fits, and conceptual loss distributions. These approaches are illustrated by application to a data set of high-dimensional historical European windstorm footprints (6103 spatial maps of 3-day maximum gust speeds at 14872 locations). We find there is little evidence of asymptotic extremal dependency in windstorm footprints. Furthermore, empirical extremal properties and conceptual losses are shown to be well reproduced using Gaussian copulas but not by extremally dependent models such as Gumbel copulas. It is conjectured that the lack of asymptotic dependence is a generic property of turbulent flows. These results open up the possibility of using geostatistical Gaussian process models for fast simulation of windstorm hazard fields.Laura C. Dawkins was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Consortium on Risk in the Environment: Diagnostics, Integration, Benchmarking, Learning and Elicitation – CREDIBLE project; NE/J017043/1)

The Citation Field of Evolutionary Economics

Evolutionary economics has developed into an academic field of its own, institutionalized around, amongst others, the Journal of Evolutionary Economics (JEE). This paper analyzes the way and extent to which evolutionary economics has become an interdisciplinary journal, as its aim was: a journal that is indispensable in the exchange of expert knowledge on topics and using approaches that relate naturally with it. Analyzing citation data for the relevant academic field for the Journal of Evolutionary Economics, we use insights from scientometrics and social network analysis to find that, indeed, the JEE is a central player in this interdisciplinary field aiming mostly at understanding technological and regional dynamics. It does not, however, link firmly with the natural sciences (including biology) nor to management sciences, entrepreneurship, and organization studies. Another journal that could be perceived to have evolutionary acumen, the Journal of Economic Issues, does relate to heterodox economics journals and is relatively more involved in discussing issues of firm and industry organization. The JEE seems most keen to develop theoretical insights

Antipsychotics and Torsadogenic Risk: Signals Emerging from the US FDA Adverse Event Reporting System Database

Background: Drug-induced torsades de pointes (TdP) and related clinical entities represent a current regulatory and clinical burden. Objective: As part of the FP7 ARITMO (Arrhythmogenic Potential of Drugs) project, we explored the publicly available US FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) database to detect signals of torsadogenicity for antipsychotics (APs). Methods: Four groups of events in decreasing order of drug-attributable risk were identified: (1) TdP, (2) QT-interval abnormalities, (3) ventricular fibrillation/tachycardia, and (4) sudden cardiac death. The reporting odds ratio (ROR) with 95 % confidence interval (CI) was calculated through a cumulative analysis from group 1 to 4. For groups 1+2, ROR was adjusted for age, gender, and concomitant drugs (e.g., antiarrhythmics) and stratified for AZCERT drugs, lists I and II (http://www.azcert.org, as of June 2011). A potential signal of torsadogenicity was defined if a drug met all the following criteria: (a) four or more cases in group 1+2; (b) significant ROR in group 1+2 that persists through the cumulative approach; (c) significant adjusted ROR for group 1+2 in the stratum without AZCERT drugs; (d) not included in AZCERT lists (as of June 2011). Results: Over the 7-year period, 37 APs were reported in 4,794 cases of arrhythmia: 140 (group 1), 883 (group 2), 1,651 (group 3), and 2,120 (group 4). Based on our criteria, the following potential signals of torsadogenicity were found: amisulpride (25 cases; adjusted ROR in the stratum without AZCERT drugs = 43.94, 95 % CI 22.82-84.60), cyamemazine (11; 15.48, 6.87-34.91), and olanzapine (189; 7.74, 6.45-9.30). Conclusions: This pharmacovigilance analysis on the FAERS found 3 potential signals of torsadogenicity for drugs previously unknown for this risk

Influenza H5 Hemagglutinin DNA Primes the Antibody Response Elicited by the Live Attenuated Influenza A/Vietnam/1203/2004 Vaccine in Ferrets

Priming immunization plays a key role in protecting individuals or populations to influenza viruses that are novel to humans. To identify the most promising vaccine priming strategy, we have evaluated different prime-boost regimens using inactivated, DNA and live attenuated vaccines in ferrets. Live attenuated influenza A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1) candidate vaccine (LAIV, VN04 ca) primed ferrets efficiently while inactivated H5N1 vaccine could not prime the immune response in seronegative ferrets unless an adjuvant was used. However, the H5 HA DNA vaccine alone was as successful as an adjuvanted inactivated VN04 vaccine in priming the immune response to VN04 ca virus. The serum antibody titers of ferrets primed with H5 HA DNA followed by intranasal vaccination of VN04 ca virus were comparable to that induced by two doses of VN04 ca virus. Both LAIV-LAIV and DNA-LAIV vaccine regimens could induce antibody responses that cross-neutralized antigenically distinct H5N1 virus isolates including A/HongKong/213/2003 (HK03) and prevented nasal infection of HK03 vaccine virus. Thus, H5 HA DNA vaccination may offer an alternative option for pandemic preparedness

The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution

The dependence of the annual mean tropical precipitation on horizontal resolution is investigated in the atmospheric version of the Hadley Centre General Environment Model (HadGEM1). Reducing the grid spacing from about 350 km to 110 km improves the precipitation distribution in most of the tropics. In particular, characteristic dry biases over South and Southeast Asia including the Maritime Continent as well as wet biases over the western tropical oceans are reduced. The annual-mean precipitation bias is reduced by about one third over the Maritime Continent and the neighbouring ocean basins associated with it via the Walker circulation. Sensitivity experiments show that much of the improvement with resolution in the Maritime Continent region is due to the specification of better resolved surface boundary conditions (land fraction, soil and vegetation parameters) at the higher resolution. It is shown that in particular the formulation of the coastal tiling scheme may cause resolution sensitivity of the mean simulated climate. The improvement in the tropical mean precipitation in this region is not primarily associated with the better representation of orography at the higher resolution, nor with changes in the eddy transport of moisture. Sizeable sensitivity to changes in the surface fields may be one of the reasons for the large variation of the mean tropical precipitation distribution seen across climate models

Optimization of the Balanced Steady State Free Precession (bSSFP) Pulse Sequence for Magnetic Resonance Imaging of the Mouse Prostate at 3T

INTRODUCTION: MRI can be used to non-invasively monitor tumour growth and response to treatment in mouse models of prostate cancer, particularly for longitudinal studies of orthotopically-implanted models. We have optimized the balanced steady-state free precession (bSSFP) pulse sequence for mouse prostate imaging. METHODS: Phase cycling, excitations, flip angle and receiver bandwidth parameters were optimized for signal to noise ratio and contrast to noise ratio of the prostate. The optimized bSSFP sequence was compared to T1- and T2-weighted spin echo sequences. RESULTS: SNR and CNR increased with flip angle. As bandwidth increased, SNR, CNR and artifacts such as chemical shift decreased. The final optimized sequence was 4 PC, 2 NEX, FA 50°, BW ±62.5 kHz and took 14-26 minutes with 200 µm isotropic resolution. The SNR efficiency of the bSSFP images was higher than for T1WSE and T2WSE. CNR was highest for T1WSE, followed closely by bSSFP, with the T2WSE having the lowest CNR. With the bSSFP images the whole body and organs of interest including renal, iliac, inguinal and popliteal lymph nodes were visible. CONCLUSION: We were able to obtain fast, high-resolution, high CNR images of the healthy mouse prostate with an optimized bSSFP sequence

Like Mother(-in-Law) Like Daughter? Influence of the Older Generation’s Fertility Behaviours on Women’s Desired Family Size in Bihar, India

This paper investigates the associations between preferred family size of women in rural Bihar, India and the fertility behaviours of their mother and mother-in-law. Scheduled interviews of 440 pairs of married women aged 16–34 years and their mothers-in-law were conducted in 2011. Preferred family size is first measured by Coombs scale, allowing us to capture latent desired number of children and then categorized into three categories (low, medium and high). Women’s preferred family size is estimated using ordered logistic regression. We find that the family size preferences are not associated with mother’s fertility but with mother’s education. Mother-in-law’s desired number of grandchildren is positively associated with women’s preferred family size. However, when the woman has higher education than her mother-in-law, her preferred family size gets smaller, suggesting that education provides women with greater autonomy in their decision-making on childbearing

Environmental and lifestyle risk factors of breast cancer in Malta-a retrospective case-control study

The funding for this research was obtained as part of IMaGenX – and ItaliaMalta co-financed EU project Operational Programme 2007–2013.AIM AND BACKGROUND: Environmental exposures are known to play a role in the development of cancer, including breast cancer. There are known associations of breast cancer with environmental factors such as sunlight exposure, diet and exercise and alcohol consumption as well as physiological factors. This study examines the prevalence of risk factors for breast cancer related to dietary intake, environment and lifestyle in the female population of Malta. Malta has had little research in this area, and therefore an exploratory study was carried out. METHODS: A retrospective case-control design was applied. Two hundred cases and 403 controls were included. Both cases and controls were subjects without a known family history for breast cancer. Controls were age-matched to cases in an age-decade category roughly at a 2:1 ratio. Interviews were carried out face-to-face using a questionnaire designed by Maltese and Sicilian researchers, encompassing various factors including diet, lifestyle, physiological factors and medical history. Breast cancer risk was then analysed using both univariate and multivariate analyses. For factors having a metric scale, the Mann-Whitney test was used to compare mean scores, while for categorical factors, the chi-square test was used to compare percentages between the case and control groups. Statistical modelling was carried out using binary logistic regression to relate the likelihood of breast cancer to over 50 risk/protective factors analysed collectively. RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed around 20 parameters of interest, 14 of which were statistically significant at a 0.05 level of significance. Logistic regression analysis identified 11 predictors of interest that were statistically significant. Tomato, coffee and canned meat consumption were associated with lower likelihood of breast cancer (OR = 0.988, 0.901, 0.892, respectively), whereas beans and cabbage consumption and low sodium salt were positively associated with breast cancer (OR = 1.045, 1.834, 1.028, respectively). Premenopausal status was associated with a lower risk of breast cancer compared to postmenopausal status (OR = 0.067). Not having experienced myocardial infarction was associated with lower odds of breast cancer (OR = 0.331). Increased height was also found to have a strong association with risk of breast cancer, with the odds of having breast cancer increasing for every centimetre increase in height (OR = 1.048). In terms of quantity, odds of having breast cancer were lower in those exposed to sunlight (OR = 0.891). The odds of having breast cancer were also lower in those not using the oral contraceptive pill (OR = 0.454). CONCLUSIONS: Various factors in this exploratory study were found to be associated with development of breast cancer. While causal conclusions cannot be made, tomato consumption is of particular interest, as these results corroborate findings found in other studies. A negative association of breast cancer with sunlight exposure and oral contraceptive pill use corroborates findings in other studies. Other associations with dietary intake can be explained by dietary changes. More robust studies in this area, including possible longitudinal studies, are warranted.peer-reviewe

Rapidity and Centrality Dependence of Proton and Anti-proton Production from Au+Au Collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 130GeV

We report on the rapidity and centrality dependence of proton and anti-proton transverse mass distributions from Au+Au collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 130GeV as measured by the STAR experiment at RHIC. Our results are from the rapidity and transverse momentum range of |y|<0.5 and 0.35 <p_t<1.00GeV/c. For both protons and anti-protons, transverse mass distributions become more convex from peripheral to central collisions demonstrating characteristics of collective expansion. The measured rapidity distributions and the mean transverse momenta versus rapidity are flat within |y|<0.5. Comparisons of our data with results from model calculations indicate that in order to obtain a consistent picture of the proton(anti-proton) yields and transverse mass distributions the possibility of pre-hadronic collective expansion may have to be taken into account.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, submitted to PR