Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results

To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer fiveoriginal research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from two separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete one version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: materials from different teams renderedstatistically significant effects in opposite directions for four out of five hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = -0.37 to +0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for two hypotheses, and a lack of support for three hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, while considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.</div

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Mol Brain

Hippocampal CA1 parvalbumin-expressing interneurons (PV INs) play a central role in controlling principal cell activity and orchestrating network oscillations. PV INs receive excitatory inputs from CA3 Schaffer collaterals and local CA1 pyramidal cells, and they provide perisomatic inhibition. Schaffer collateral excitatory synapses onto PV INs express Hebbian and anti-Hebbian types of long-term potentiation (LTP), as well as elicit LTP of intrinsic excitability (LTPIE). LTPIE requires the activation of type 5 metabotropic glutamate receptors (mGluR5) and is mediated by downregulation of potassium channels Kv1.1. It is sensitive to rapamycin and thus may involve activation of the mammalian target of rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1). LTPIE facilitates PV INs recruitment in CA1 and maintains an excitatory-inhibitory balance. Impaired CA1 PV INs activity or LTP affects network oscillations and memory. However, whether LTPIE in PV INs plays a role in hippocampus-dependent memory remains unknown. Here, we used conditional deletion of the obligatory component of mTORC1, the Regulatory-Associated Protein of mTOR (Raptor), to directly manipulate mTORC1 in PV INs. We found that homozygous, but not heterozygous, conditional knock-out of Rptor resulted in a decrease in CA1 PV INs of mTORC1 signaling via its downstream effector S6 phosphorylation assessed by immunofluorescence. In whole-cell recordings from hippocampal slices, repetitive firing of CA1 PV INs was impaired in mice with either homozygous or heterozygous conditional knock-out of Rptor. High frequency stimulation of Schaffer collateral inputs that induce LTPIE in PV INs of control mice failed to do so in mice with either heterozygous or homozygous conditional knock-out of Rptor in PV INs. At the behavioral level, mice with homozygous or heterozygous conditional knock-out of Rptor showed similar long-term contextual fear memory or contextual fear memory discrimination relative to control mice. Thus, mTORC1 activity in CA1 PV INs regulates repetitive firing and LTPIE but not consolidation of long-term contextual fear memory and context discrimination. Our results indicate that mTORC1 plays cell-specific roles in synaptic plasticity of hippocampal inhibitory interneurons that are differentially involved in hippocampus-dependent learning and memory. © 2022, The Author(s)

Quantitative proteomics reveals that only a subset of the endoplasmic reticulum contributes to the phagosome

Phagosomes, by killing and degrading pathogens for antigen presentation, are organelles implicated in key aspects of innate and adaptive immunity. Although it has been well established that phagosomes consist of membranes from the plasma membrane, endosomes, and lysosomes, the notion that the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) membrane could play an important role in the formation of the phagosome is debated. However, a method to accurately estimate the contribution of potential source organelles and contaminants to the phagosome proteome has been lacking. Herein, we have developed a proteomic approach for objectively quantifying the contribution of various organelles to the early and late phagosomes by comparing these fractions to their total membrane and postnuclear supernatant of origin in the J774A.1 murine macrophage cell line. Using quantitative label-free mass spectrometry, the abundance of peptides corresponding to hundreds of proteins was estimated and attributed to one of five organelles (e.g. plasma membrane, endosomes/lysosomes, ER, Golgi, and mitochondria). These data in combination with a stable isotope labeling in cell culture method designed to detect potential contaminant sources revealed that the ER is part of the phagosomal membrane and contributes ~20% of the early phagosome proteome. In addition, only a subset of ER proteins is recruited to the phagosome, suggesting that a specific subdomain(s) of the ER might be involved in phagocytosis. Western blotting and immunofluorescence substantially validated this conclusion; we were able to demonstrate that the fraction of the ER in which the ER marker GFP-KDEL accumulates is excluded from the phagosomes, whereas that containing the mVenus-Syntaxin 18 is recruited. These results highlight promising new avenues for the description of the pathogenic mechanisms used by Leishmania, Brucella, and Legionella spp., which thrive in ER-rich phagosomes

Exploring small molecules with pan-genotypic inhibitory activities against hepatitis C virus NS3/4A serine protease

Among the many Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes and subtypes, genotypes 1b and 3a are most prevalent in United States and Asia, respectively. A total of 132 commercially available analogs of a previous lead compound were initially investigated against wild-type HCV genotype 1b NS3/4A protease. Ten compounds showed inhibitory activities (IC50 values) below 10 µM with comparable direct binding affinities (KD values) determined by surface plasmon resonance (SPR). To identify pan-genotypic inhibitors, these ten selected compounds were tested against four additional genotypes (1a, 2a, 3a, and 4) and three drug-resistant mutants (A156S, R155K, and V36M). Four new analogs have been identified with better activities against all five tested genotypes than the prior lead compound. Further, the original lead compound did not show activity against genotype 3a NS3/4A, whereas four newly identified compounds exhibited IC50 values below 33 µM against genotype 3a NS3/4A. Encouragingly, the best new compound F1813-0710 possessed promising activity toward genotype 3a, which is a huge improvement over the previous lead compound that had no effect on genotype 3a. This intriguing observation was further analyzed by molecular docking and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to understand their different binding interactions, which should benefit future pan-genotypic inhibitor design and drug discovery

Loss of function mutation of the Slc38a3 glutamine transporter reveals its critical role for amino acid metabolism in the liver, brain, and kidney

Glutamine, the most abundant amino acid in mammals, is critical for cell and organ functions. Its metabolism depends on the ability of cells to take up or release glutamine by transporters located in the plasma membrane. Several solute carrier (SLC) families transport glutamine, but the SLC38 family has been thought to be mostly responsible for glutamine transport. We demonstrate that despite the large number of glutamine transporters, the loss of Snat3/Slc38a3 glutamine transporter has a major impact on the function of organs expressing it. Snat3 mutant mice were generated by N-ethyl-N-nitrosurea (ENU) mutagenesis and showed stunted growth, altered amino acid levels, hypoglycemia, and died around 20 days after birth. Hepatic concentrations of glutamine, glutamate, leucine, phenylalanine, and tryptophan were highly reduced paralleled by downregulation of the mTOR pathway possibly linking reduced amino acid availability to impaired growth and glucose homeostasis. Snat3-deficient mice had altered urea levels paralleled by dysregulation of the urea cycle, gluconeogenesis, and glutamine synthesis. Mice were ataxic with higher glutamine but reduced glutamate and gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) levels in brain consistent with a major role of Snat3 in the glutamine-glutamate cycle. Renal ammonium excretion was lower, and the expression of enzymes and amino acid transporters involved in ammoniagenesis were altered. Thus, SNAT3 is a glutamine transporter required for amino acid homeostasis and determines critical functions in various organs. Despite the large number of glutamine transporters, loss of Snat3 cannot be compensated, suggesting that this transporter is a major route of glutamine transport in the liver, brain, and kidney